raindancewx

Our mountains have done well too. This storm is pretty close to what I expected when that big low moved south of Kamchatka on 2/23. It was 970 mb. The Bering Sea Rule translation said that system would be in Northern NM around 3/12-3/16. This is also now the fifth or sixth time it's gotten cold at the same in the 46-day cycle here since July 1.

SOI is still very negative for March. Hanging out at -5 or so for 3/1-3/12. Cold is shrinking below the surface as it pushes toward the surface. Pretty warm to 150W or so now.

This is what I have for NAO correlations to total snow for the US nationally. The areas in white are pretty highly correlated, 0.1-0.2, or 0.2 to 0.4 (r-squared) for the R-squared between the winter NAO and total snow July-June, for 1950-51 to 2019-20 period. Nashville is the place in the US where the NAO is most directly tied to total snow for 1950-51 to 2019-20 from the sites I tested. In New Mexico, many of the top snowfall seasons occur in years featuring very +NAO or very -NAO winters. So it matters, but not in a direct correlation sense. Much of the West is similar, but some sites do very well with somewhat negative and very positive, or very positive and somewhat negative, and so on. If you filtered by ENSO, the results would also be very different. NR means the relationship is not statistically significant for the 70 year period, even though they might tilt one way. Cheyenne is the only place to see a statistically significant relationship where a +NAO winter favors heavier snow.

The next runs of the 3-km NAM and HRRR (the 48 hour run) should give some insight as to whether the GFS is right with the stronger upslope/precip totals or not. My hunch is there is a lot of precip, but a lot of it will be rain. Not all though. Someone should get 30-40 inches of brick snow at least.

I didn't have the big snows in the Northeast far enough south in my outlook. I thought they'd be NYC west/north. But with the NAO negative on net after a negative January it makes sense that the 'average' line for snow setup south of where I had it, over Philadelphia rather than New York City. Many of the features I had did show up for the snow map. Notably, the lack of snow by the North Dakota/Montana border, heavy snow in the Midwest for places like Iowa (Des Moines I had at 150% in the raw analogs), and generally good snow totals for the interior West. I had the South generally below average. That was fine for the southeast, but not right south-central. Texas actually can get a lot of snow in the right type of La Nina. New Mexico will also tend to do well for snow in periods of very high +NAO OR very high -NAO periods. Only spot in the country with that distinction. Some of the towns I look at in New Mexico have had one of their snowiest cold seasons to date for July 1-March 10. Northern New Mexico: Albuquerque: 13.7", 16th snowiest July 1-March 10 since 1931-32. Snowiest La Nina in that time frame. 5,300+ feet. Clayton: 26.9", 12th snowiest July 1-March 10 since 1931-32 (there are some missing years here). Plains near OK/TX Los Alamos: 38.0", 40th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (a few missing years). 7,300 feet. Notably well behind 2018-19 (63.1", 12th snowiest for the period). Los Lunas: 13.4", 4th snowiest July-March 10 since 1958-59. South of Albuquerque, lower elevation by floor of the Rio Grande Valley, 4,800+ feet. Eagle Nest: 93.9", 2nd snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (some missing data). Elevation is 8,200+ feet here. Southern New Mexico Roswell: 10.9", 34th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (two missing years). 3,600 feet. SE New Mexico. Hillsboro: 13.0", 17th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32. 5,200 feet. SW New Mexico Gila Hot Springs: 20.2", Snowiest July-March 10 since 1957-58. 5,600 feet. SW New Mexico.

On Tropical Tidbits, none of the four Nino zones are currently cold enough to be a La Nina. This is what has happened the past week:

The 990 mb low forecast over southern Kamchatka is pretty strong for mid-March. That's likely a pretty good storm 3/27-3/31. The storm forecast for this week was preceded by a 970 mb (!) low in that spot, +17 days, as you'd expect via the Bering Straight Rule.

Tada - right on time, 3/12-3/13.

This is the Euro. Mostly day 3.5-5.5 in real time now since this initialization is from 5 am this morning.

European has been showing La Nina ending in March. Still looks like that might be right. It's certainly interesting seeing Nino 1.2 and 3 warmer than 3.4 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8

A lot of times in La Ninas, the Marches that end up fairly cold nationally precede El Ninos the following winter. Given that the SOI has been predominantly negative (El Nino-like) for almost two weeks now, really need to see if the SOI can sustain negative. March SOI is currently -6.1 almost 1/4 through March. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2021 1011.35 1007.95 -3.40 7.18 13.28 6 Mar 2021 1011.64 1008.10 -2.73 7.57 13.49 5 Mar 2021 1010.81 1008.15 -6.94 8.29 13.65 4 Mar 2021 1010.79 1008.45 -8.47 9.13 13.82 3 Mar 2021 1011.54 1008.70 -6.08 9.71 13.98 2 Mar 2021 1011.34 1008.65 -6.80 10.05 14.18 1 Mar 2021 1009.94 1007.60 -8.47 10.48 14.43 28 Feb 2021 1009.96 1006.35 -5.43 10.99 14.76 27 Feb 2021 1009.84 1004.80 1.44 11.47 15.13 26 Feb 2021 1007.90 1005.15 -9.56 12.12 15.33 25 Feb 2021 1008.06 1006.40 -14.79 13.45 15.45 24 Feb 2021 1010.22 1006.20 -3.46 14.79 15.65 Since 1990, cold-ENSO winters with a -SOI in March are 4/4 in going to El Ninos: 1996-97 to 1997-98, 2001-02 to 2002-03, 2008-09 to 2009-10, 2013-14 to 2014-15. The overall track-record from 1931 to 2019, if you include borderline El Ninos 1990-91 and 1979-80, is 10 of 18 cold-ENSO years with a -SOI in March go to El Nino or near-El Nino conditions the next winter. Cold ENSO (La Nina or cold-Neutral) winters with a -4 to -8 SOI in March: 2001-02 (-6, El Nino followed) 1996-97 (-7, El Nino followed) 1989-90 (-8, near-El Nino followed) 1983-84 (-6.5, La Nina followed, but 1984-85 is a very wet/cold winter in the SW) 1950-51 (-5.5, El Nino followed) 1937-38 (-4, La Nina followed, but 1938-39 is a very cold winter in the SW) Other Recent Cold ENSO, but -SOI Marches: 2013-14 (-12, El Nino followed) 2008-09 (-1, El Nino followed) 1985-86 (-0.3, El Nino followed) 1984-85 (-3, Neutral followed)

Late February to early March has actually been seeing a bunch of little lows moving to the southern tip of Kamchatka from NW to SE. Should be more systems in late March and early April moving in favorable paths for CO, NM, and WY. Fantasy range GFS has another 970 mb low south of Kamchatka on 3/17. My guess is that's the end of the sequence, and it would show up here around 4/3-4/7 if it verified.

That storm is likely real at least. It is in the 3/12-3/16 time frame I flagged in late February with the 970 mb low off southern Kamchatka.

CPC has re-calculated the NAO monthly data using 1991-2020 averages. Same for some of the other teleconnections. 1981-2010 Baseline: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table (+NAO Feb 2021) 1991-2020 Baseline: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nao.data (-NAO Feb 2021) This is 1981-2010: NAO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1950 0.92 0.40 -0.36 0.73 -0.59 -0.06 -1.26 -0.05 0.25 0.85 -1.26 -1.02 1951 0.08 0.70 -1.02 -0.22 -0.59 -1.64 1.37 -0.22 -1.36 1.87 -0.39 1.32 1952 0.93 -0.83 -1.49 1.01 -1.12 -0.40 -0.09 -0.28 -0.54 -0.73 -1.13 -0.43 1953 0.33 -0.49 -0.04 -1.67 -0.66 1.09 0.40 -0.71 -0.35 1.32 1.04 -0.47 1954 0.37 0.74 -0.83 1.34 -0.09 -0.25 -0.60 -1.90 -0.44 0.60 0.40 0.69 1955 -1.84 -1.12 -0.53 -0.42 -0.34 -1.10 1.76 1.07 0.32 -1.47 -1.29 0.17 1956 -0.22 -1.12 -0.05 -1.06 2.21 0.10 -0.75 -1.37 0.24 0.88 0.51 0.10 1957 1.05 0.11 -1.26 0.49 -0.79 -0.72 -1.19 -0.55 -1.66 1.32 0.73 0.12 1958 -0.54 -1.06 -1.96 0.37 -0.24 -1.38 -1.73 -1.56 -0.07 0.16 1.64 -0.70 1959 -0.87 0.68 -0.15 0.36 0.39 0.40 0.74 0.06 0.88 0.89 0.41 0.44 1960 -1.29 -1.89 -0.50 1.36 0.45 -0.21 0.35 -1.40 0.39 -1.73 -0.51 0.06 1961 0.41 0.45 0.55 -1.55 -0.36 0.86 -0.39 0.90 1.24 0.51 -0.62 -1.48 1962 0.61 0.55 -2.47 0.99 -0.10 0.16 -2.47 0.14 -0.37 0.41 -0.23 -1.32 1963 -2.12 -0.96 -0.43 -1.35 2.16 -0.43 -0.77 -0.64 1.79 0.94 -1.27 -1.92 1964 -0.95 -1.43 -1.20 0.36 0.52 1.29 1.90 -1.77 0.20 0.74 -0.01 -0.15 1965 -0.12 -1.55 -1.51 0.72 -0.62 0.29 0.32 0.45 0.37 0.38 -1.66 1.37 1966 -1.74 -1.39 0.56 -0.75 0.22 1.05 0.32 -1.76 -0.45 -0.68 -0.04 0.72 1967 -0.89 0.19 1.51 0.18 -0.99 1.40 0.41 1.44 0.93 0.07 0.60 -0.45 1968 0.13 -1.29 0.40 -1.08 -1.76 0.33 -0.80 -0.66 -1.92 -2.30 -0.93 -1.40 1969 -0.83 -1.55 -1.56 1.53 0.55 0.55 0.57 -1.45 2.07 0.66 -0.96 -0.28 1970 -1.50 0.64 -0.96 -1.30 1.14 1.55 0.10 0.10 -0.09 -0.92 -0.60 -1.20 1971 -1.13 0.24 -0.84 -0.24 0.50 -1.57 0.24 1.55 0.39 0.58 -0.20 0.60 1972 0.27 0.32 0.72 -0.22 0.95 0.88 0.18 1.32 -0.12 1.09 0.54 0.19 1973 0.04 0.85 0.30 -0.54 -0.44 0.39 0.57 -0.06 -0.30 -1.24 -0.93 0.32 1974 1.34 -0.14 -0.03 0.51 -0.24 -0.14 -0.76 -0.64 0.82 0.49 -0.54 1.50 1975 0.58 -0.62 -0.61 -1.60 -0.52 -0.84 1.55 -0.26 1.56 -0.54 0.41 0.00 1976 -0.25 0.93 0.75 0.26 0.96 0.80 -0.32 1.92 -1.29 -0.08 0.17 -1.60 1977 -1.04 -0.49 -0.81 0.65 -0.86 -0.57 -0.45 -0.28 0.37 0.52 -0.07 -1.00 1978 0.66 -2.20 0.70 -1.17 1.08 1.38 -1.14 0.64 0.46 1.93 3.04 -1.57 1979 -1.38 -0.67 0.78 -1.71 -1.03 1.60 0.83 0.96 1.01 -0.30 0.53 1.00 1980 -0.75 0.05 -0.31 1.29 -1.50 -0.37 -0.42 -2.24 0.66 -1.77 -0.37 0.78 1981 0.37 0.92 -1.19 0.36 0.20 -0.45 0.05 0.39 -1.45 -1.35 -0.38 -0.02 1982 -0.89 1.15 1.15 0.10 -0.53 -1.63 1.15 0.26 1.76 -0.74 1.60 1.78 1983 1.59 -0.53 0.95 -0.85 -0.07 0.99 1.19 1.61 -1.12 0.65 -0.98 0.29 1984 1.66 0.72 -0.37 -0.28 0.54 -0.42 -0.07 1.15 0.17 -0.07 -0.06 0.00 1985 -1.61 -0.49 0.20 0.32 -0.49 -0.80 1.22 -0.48 -0.52 0.90 -0.67 0.22 1986 1.11 -1.00 1.71 -0.59 0.85 1.22 0.12 -1.09 -1.12 1.55 2.29 0.99 1987 -1.15 -0.73 0.14 2.00 0.98 -1.82 0.52 -0.83 -1.22 0.14 0.18 0.32 1988 1.02 0.76 -0.17 -1.17 0.63 0.88 -0.35 0.04 -0.99 -1.08 -0.34 0.61 1989 1.17 2.00 1.85 0.28 1.38 -0.27 0.97 0.01 2.05 -0.03 0.16 -1.15 1990 1.04 1.41 1.46 2.00 -1.53 -0.02 0.53 0.97 1.06 0.23 -0.24 0.22 1991 0.86 1.04 -0.20 0.29 0.08 -0.82 -0.49 1.23 0.48 -0.19 0.48 0.46 1992 -0.13 1.07 0.87 1.86 2.63 0.20 0.16 0.85 -0.44 -1.76 1.19 0.47 1993 1.60 0.50 0.67 0.97 -0.78 -0.59 -3.18 0.12 -0.57 -0.71 2.56 1.56 1994 1.04 0.46 1.26 1.14 -0.57 1.52 1.31 0.38 -1.32 -0.97 0.64 2.02 1995 0.93 1.14 1.25 -0.85 -1.49 0.13 -0.22 0.69 0.31 0.19 -1.38 -1.67 1996 -0.12 -0.07 -0.24 -0.17 -1.06 0.56 0.67 1.02 -0.86 -0.33 -0.56 -1.41 1997 -0.49 1.70 1.46 -1.02 -0.28 -1.47 0.34 0.83 0.61 -1.70 -0.90 -0.96 1998 0.39 -0.11 0.87 -0.68 -1.32 -2.72 -0.48 -0.02 -2.00 -0.29 -0.28 0.87 1999 0.77 0.29 0.23 -0.95 0.92 1.12 -0.90 0.39 0.36 0.20 0.65 1.61 2000 0.60 1.70 0.77 -0.03 1.58 -0.03 -1.03 -0.29 -0.21 0.92 -0.92 -0.58 2001 0.25 0.45 -1.26 0.00 -0.02 -0.20 -0.25 -0.07 -0.65 -0.24 0.63 -0.83 2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70 -2.28 -0.18 -0.94 2003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01 -1.26 0.86 0.64 2004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38 -1.10 0.73 1.21 2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63 -0.98 -0.31 -0.44 2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 -2.24 0.44 1.34 2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34 2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28 2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93 2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85 2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 0.39 1.36 2.52 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59 -2.06 -0.58 0.17 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57 0.52 0.67 0.97 0.24 -1.28 0.90 0.95 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 0.31 -0.92 -0.97 0.18 -1.68 1.62 -1.27 0.68 1.86 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 0.73 0.15 -0.07 -3.18 -0.76 -0.65 0.44 1.74 2.24 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 0.38 -0.77 -0.43 -1.76 -1.65 0.61 0.41 -0.16 0.48 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 0.05 1.26 -1.10 -0.61 0.19 0.00 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 1.09 1.39 1.97 1.67 0.93 -0.11 0.61 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 -1.09 -1.43 -1.17 -0.16 -1.41 0.28 1.20 2020 1.34 1.26 1.01 -1.02 -0.41 -0.15 -1.23 0.12 0.98 -0.65 2.54 -0.30 2021 -1.11 This is 1991-2020. Lots more "-NAO" winters now. 1950 0.56 0.01 -0.78 0.65 -0.50 0.25 -1.23 -0.19 0.39 1.43 -1.46 -1.03 1951 -0.42 0.35 -1.47 -0.38 -0.50 -1.35 1.39 -0.41 -1.18 2.54 -0.54 1.13 1952 0.57 -1.38 -1.97 0.95 -0.99 -0.10 -0.06 -0.49 -0.38 -0.28 -1.32 -0.49 1953 -0.12 -1.00 -0.45 -1.96 -0.56 1.41 0.43 -1.04 -0.19 1.95 0.96 -0.52 1954 -0.08 0.40 -1.27 1.31 -0.03 0.06 -0.57 -2.57 -0.28 1.16 0.29 0.55 1955 -2.65 -1.71 -0.96 -0.60 -0.26 -0.80 1.78 1.25 0.46 -1.09 -1.49 0.07 1956 -0.76 -1.71 -0.46 -1.30 2.10 0.41 -0.72 -1.89 0.38 1.47 0.40 0.00 1957 0.71 -0.32 -1.73 0.39 -0.68 -0.42 -1.16 -0.83 -1.47 1.95 0.63 0.02 1958 -1.14 -1.64 -2.46 0.26 -0.17 -1.08 -1.69 -2.13 0.08 0.68 1.59 -0.74 1959 -1.52 0.33 -0.56 0.25 0.41 0.71 0.77 -0.05 1.00 1.48 0.30 0.32 1960 -2.01 -2.59 -0.93 1.33 0.47 0.10 0.38 -1.93 0.53 -1.37 -0.67 -0.03 1961 -0.03 0.07 0.17 -1.83 -0.28 1.17 -0.36 1.03 1.36 1.07 -0.79 -1.46 1962 0.20 0.18 -2.99 0.93 -0.04 0.47 -2.43 0.05 -0.21 0.96 -0.38 -1.31 1963 -2.98 -1.53 -0.85 -1.61 2.05 -0.13 -0.74 -0.95 1.89 1.53 -1.47 -1.87 1964 -1.62 -2.06 -1.66 0.25 0.53 1.61 1.92 -2.40 0.34 1.32 -0.14 -0.23 1965 -0.65 -2.20 -1.99 0.64 -0.52 0.60 0.35 0.45 0.51 0.92 -1.88 1.18 1966 -2.54 -2.02 0.18 -0.96 0.25 1.37 0.35 -2.39 -0.29 -0.23 -0.18 0.58 1967 -1.55 -0.23 1.18 0.05 -0.87 1.72 0.44 1.73 1.05 0.59 0.50 -0.51 1968 -0.36 -1.91 0.02 -1.32 -1.58 0.64 -0.77 -0.97 -1.73 -1.99 -1.11 -1.39 1969 -1.48 -2.20 -2.04 1.52 0.56 0.86 0.60 -1.99 2.17 1.23 -1.14 -0.35 1970 -2.26 0.28 -1.41 -1.56 1.11 1.87 0.13 0.00 0.06 -0.49 -0.76 -1.20 1971 -1.82 -0.17 -1.28 -0.41 0.51 -1.28 0.27 1.87 0.53 1.14 -0.34 0.47 1972 -0.19 -0.08 0.35 -0.38 0.93 1.19 0.21 1.57 0.03 1.70 0.43 0.09 1973 -0.46 0.52 -0.09 -0.73 -0.36 0.70 0.60 -0.20 -0.15 -0.84 -1.11 0.21 1974 1.05 -0.60 -0.43 0.41 -0.17 0.17 -0.73 -0.95 0.95 1.04 -0.70 1.30 1975 0.17 -1.15 -1.04 -1.89 -0.43 -0.54 1.57 -0.46 1.67 -0.08 0.30 -0.09 1976 -0.80 0.61 0.38 0.14 0.94 1.11 -0.29 2.34 -1.11 0.42 0.04 -1.57 1977 -1.72 -1.00 -1.25 0.56 -0.75 -0.27 -0.42 -0.49 0.51 1.08 -0.21 -1.02 1978 0.26 -2.94 0.33 -1.42 1.05 1.70 -1.11 0.70 0.60 2.61 3.06 -1.54 1979 -2.12 -1.20 0.41 -2.01 -0.90 1.92 0.86 1.11 1.13 0.18 0.42 0.84 1980 -1.38 -0.39 -0.73 1.26 -1.34 -0.07 -0.39 -3.01 0.79 -1.41 -0.52 0.63 1981 -0.08 0.60 -1.65 0.25 0.24 -0.15 0.08 0.38 -1.27 -0.96 -0.53 -0.11 1982 -1.55 0.86 0.80 -0.04 -0.44 -1.34 1.18 0.21 1.86 -0.29 1.55 1.56 1983 1.34 -1.04 0.59 -1.07 -0.01 1.31 1.22 1.95 -0.95 1.22 -1.16 0.18 1984 1.42 0.37 -0.79 -0.45 0.55 -0.12 -0.04 1.35 0.31 0.43 -0.20 -0.09 1985 -2.38 -1.00 -0.19 0.20 -0.40 -0.50 1.25 -0.74 -0.36 1.49 -0.84 0.11 1986 0.78 -1.58 1.39 -0.79 0.84 1.54 0.15 -1.53 -0.95 2.20 2.27 0.83 1987 -1.85 -1.27 -0.26 2.03 0.96 -1.53 0.55 -1.19 -1.04 0.66 0.06 0.21 1988 0.68 0.42 -0.58 -1.42 0.64 1.19 -0.32 -0.07 -0.82 -0.66 -0.49 0.48 1989 0.85 1.82 1.54 0.16 1.33 0.03 1.00 -0.11 2.15 0.48 0.03 -1.15 1990 0.70 1.16 1.13 2.03 -1.37 0.29 0.56 1.12 1.18 0.76 -0.39 0.11 1991 0.49 0.74 -0.61 0.17 0.12 -0.52 -0.46 1.46 0.61 0.30 0.37 0.34 1992 -0.66 0.77 0.51 1.88 2.49 0.51 0.19 0.97 -0.28 -1.40 1.12 0.35 1993 1.35 0.12 0.30 0.91 -0.67 -0.29 -3.14 0.03 -0.41 -0.26 2.56 1.36 1994 0.70 0.08 0.92 1.10 -0.48 1.84 1.34 0.36 -1.14 -0.54 0.54 1.78 1995 0.57 0.85 0.91 -1.07 -1.33 0.44 -0.19 0.76 0.45 0.72 -1.59 -1.64 1996 -0.65 -0.52 -0.66 -0.33 -0.93 0.87 0.70 1.19 -0.69 0.15 -0.72 -1.40 1997 -1.08 1.48 1.13 -1.25 -0.21 -1.17 0.37 0.94 0.74 -1.34 -1.08 -0.98 1998 -0.05 -0.57 0.51 -0.88 -1.17 -2.44 -0.45 -0.15 -1.80 0.20 -0.43 0.72 1999 0.39 -0.11 -0.16 -1.18 0.90 1.44 -0.87 0.38 0.50 0.73 0.55 1.40 2000 0.19 1.48 0.40 -0.18 1.52 0.28 -1.00 -0.50 -0.06 1.51 -1.10 -0.63 2001 -0.22 0.07 -1.73 -0.15 0.03 0.11 -0.22 -0.22 -0.49 0.25 0.53 -0.86 2002 0.00 0.80 0.32 1.14 -0.15 0.69 0.65 0.36 -0.54 -1.97 -0.32 -0.96 2003 -0.32 0.26 -0.07 -0.34 0.06 0.24 0.16 -0.22 0.16 -0.86 0.77 0.50 2004 -0.85 -0.60 0.67 1.11 0.23 -0.59 1.16 -0.74 0.52 -0.69 0.63 1.03 2005 1.26 -0.51 -2.32 -0.47 -1.11 0.26 -0.48 0.35 0.76 -0.55 -0.46 -0.50 2006 0.97 -1.02 -1.75 1.20 -1.01 1.15 0.93 -2.35 -1.43 -1.92 0.33 1.15 2007 -0.25 -0.98 1.11 0.04 0.66 -1.01 -0.55 -0.31 0.85 1.00 0.48 0.23 2008 0.53 0.38 -0.32 -1.31 -1.55 -1.09 -1.24 -1.62 1.14 0.47 -0.47 -0.35 2009 -0.52 -0.38 0.19 -0.36 1.61 -0.91 -2.11 -0.37 1.62 -0.61 -0.16 -1.88 2010 -1.80 -2.69 -1.33 -0.93 -1.33 -0.52 -0.39 -1.69 -0.62 -0.50 -1.84 -1.80 2011 -1.53 0.35 0.24 2.55 -0.01 -0.98 -1.48 -1.85 0.67 0.94 1.30 2.25 2012 0.86 0.03 0.93 0.37 -0.79 -2.25 -1.29 -1.39 -0.43 -1.73 -0.74 0.07 2013 -0.11 -0.96 -2.09 0.60 0.58 0.83 0.70 1.12 0.38 -0.88 0.81 0.79 2014 -0.17 1.07 0.44 0.19 -0.80 -0.67 0.21 -2.28 1.72 -0.87 0.58 1.63 2015 1.57 1.05 1.12 0.64 0.19 0.24 -3.14 -1.10 -0.49 0.99 1.70 1.99 2016 -0.37 1.35 0.37 0.26 -0.67 -0.13 -1.72 -2.24 0.74 0.96 -0.31 0.35 2017 0.05 0.69 0.37 1.74 -1.72 0.35 1.28 -1.53 -0.45 0.71 -0.14 0.73 2018 1.17 1.34 -1.38 1.20 2.02 1.41 1.42 2.40 1.78 1.53 -0.25 0.48 2019 0.18 -0.11 0.89 0.36 -2.38 -0.79 -1.39 -1.62 -0.01 -1.03 0.16 1.02 2020 1.05 0.98 0.66 -1.26 -0.33 0.16 -1.19 0.03 1.11 -0.20 2.54 -0.37 2021 -1.80 -0.29 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90 -99.90

Feb 1.2 3 3.4 4 Match 2021 25.24 25.70 25.71 27.17 0.00 1951 25.19 25.65 25.71 27.09 0.18 1955 24.97 25.70 25.81 27.11 0.43 1956 24.90 25.70 25.76 27.01 0.55 2009 25.42 25.84 25.96 27.35 0.75 2011 25.94 25.63 25.64 27.15 0.86 1963 25.28 25.79 26.22 27.48 0.95 Top matches for February. The look for March is cold North, warm South when the six are blended.

The La Nina finished above 25.5C for winter overall. Nino 4 never dropped below 27.0C on the monthly data either. https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data 25.57C in DJF for 2020-21 25.72C in DJF in 2017-18 25.76C in DJF in 2011-12 The 2010-11 La Nina is still the last DJF to fall below 25.5C overall, it was 25.2C.

Pretty interesting looking winter globally for SST patterns.

For people who get on me about average temperatures, my forecast was actually better using average temperatures than high temperatures. The map is just 2020-21 minus the ten years I used as the analog blend. Warm colors are where 2020-21 was warmer than the analog blend. Cold colors are where 2020-21 was colder than the analog blend. You can see 75% of the US at least is within 0-3F degrees of what I had. My scoring system is essentially: w/in 0.5F = 100% (A+) w/in 1.0F = 95% w/in 2.0F = 85% w/in 3.0F = 75% etc That's why I showed the maps as within 3F. More than 3F out is not a good seasonal forecast for a given spot to me.

Pretty impressively dry winter nationally. Especially since this winter will likely be thought of as "stormy" for the US. Albuquerque is already guaranteed a pretty snowy season overall, but the winter itself had only 60% of normal precipitation. The real dry spots were the Montana/North Dakota border, SE NM, and California generally.

My forecast was for highs. Most people are asleep at six in the morning. I am just evaluating what I forecast from October for the US in winter. I don't think you actually understand what I am showing. The map shows the difference between the blend of highs I used and the observations. It is not showing whether you finished warm or cold compared to some baseline like 1981-2010 or 1991-2020 average. Here is Buffalo highs for Dec 1-Feb 28: 1995-96: 30.5F 2003-04: 31.7F 2007-08: 34.5F (x5) 2012-13: 37.0F (x2) 2019-20: 38.0F Blend: 34.67F, and I round it to 34.7F. 2020-21 Actual: 34.5F The Map says I was within 0.2 degrees of the high observed in Buffalo, from a blend I used to forecast the winter in October.

Here is my winter forecast verification. This is analog highs - observed highs. My guess is this winter will look pretty cold against 1991-2020 averages, but not the 1951-2010 baseline I used. Just since yesterday, the distance from the analogs to the observations shrank by up to 0.5F across the southern US. I think two more warm days would have fixed all of the South but Texas.

The sub-subsurface waters warmed to -0.83 for February 2021. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Pretty decent rebound this week for Nino 1.2, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4. Winter likely finished around 25.7C in Nino 3.4 again, given 25.8C or so in Nino 3.4 for February. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09DEC2020 22.4-0.0 24.3-0.9 25.4-1.3 27.7-0.9 16DEC2020 22.0-0.7 24.3-0.9 25.6-1.0 27.8-0.8 23DEC2020 22.1-1.0 24.5-0.8 25.7-1.0 27.6-0.9 30DEC2020 22.2-1.3 24.4-1.0 25.4-1.2 27.3-1.2 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0

The Canadian has the La Nina weaker than before near Peru in the coming months. Hangs on well in Nino 4, then re-develops to a weak La Nina basin wide later in 2021.

Long-term, a big +SOI February is correlated to cold NW US. But the look on the models implies the SW & Northern Plains should be colder than what is shown to me, We'll see. It's hard to get the SW too hot in March if the WPO and NAO are both favorable as the models hint.

Top SOI Matches for Dec-Feb: Year Dec Jan Feb 1938 12.5 16.5 7.2 1942 12.5 8.8 10.1 1973 15.6 20.3 16.0 1975 17.6 11.2 12.6 1988 9.5 12.7 8.5 1998 11.7 14.7 7.1 2020 16.6 15.9 11.3 February 1989 is similarly cold nationally to this year. That's the March to watch.