raindancewx

My sense is there is blocking next winter too. But if it is an El Nino, it will probably be focused Feb-Mar, not Dec-Jan focused like this winter. I would like another El Nino. The El Ninos after La Ninas are cool to very cold out here, pretty reliably, and the jump to even a weak El Nino from a ~25.57C La Nina in winter would be one of the larger jumps in the past 70 years, I think top ten for a year to year warm up. Solar activity is still rising, but it's going up fairly fast now. Next winter is probably the last "low solar" winter for a while. The relevant threshold nationally seems to be an average of 55 sunspots/month for a year from July-June. The subsurface in March was +0.28 down to 300m, from -0.82 in February. Huge jump. The trajectory Jan-Mar is still like some La Nina years (2011), but also now like some El Nino years (2006). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

New Canadian has cold-neutral conditions for Apr-Jun, warmer than the prior run.

Time frame to watch now is mid-April for a big system. Not sure if the position was right for the front range or west, but the 3/26 967 mb off Kamchatka should come through somewhere in the US as a major system.

SOI finished March at -0.46. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, since 1990, cold ENSO winters are 4/4 in going to El Ninos the next winter with a -SOI in March. The 1985-86 and 2008-09 cold ENSO winters both saw SOI values of 0 to -1 in March.

These maps are never particularly precise, but it's been interesting month for snow. Remarkably low totals for a lot of the East, and some solid storms in the West.

The rebound at the surface is a bit misleading given the destruction of the La Nina below.

Tropical Tidbits has shown cooling recently - the weeklies show it too now. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6

Edit: Oh wait, it is Sunday. No new update yet.

The SOI is negative for the past 30 days but has come up a lot in recent days after a persistent bout of negative days. It may not finish March negative. The 30 day reading is -2, it had been almost +17 as recently as December. The WPO was record positive in January, so maybe that's just a recurring part of the pattern for a while now. My research in my Spring Outlook implied a series of lows moving across the southern US in March based on the ~record +NAO in November (+2.54). It's been interesting seeing that play out. Southern US is definitely colder than the Northern US by anomalies this month. I had kind of assumed the correlation was due to a lot of +NAO Novembers in El Nino. But it seems to not be only that. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

What do you make of these ongoing super powered lows off Kamchatka? I don't remember seeing them this strong in the WPO region this late in the year. That's big trouble for somebody in the US if it translates to the US 4/12-4/16. I mean 967 mb on the old saffir simpson scale is like a borderline major hurricane.

Still snowing in places down here. Taos Powderhorn snow pack may cross 80 inches for the first time this cold season tomorrow.

Old east wind snow event for Albuquerque.

Winter Weather Advisory up for Albuquerque. I think most of the city is going to get under two inches. Higher amounts to the western areas of the city. Nice little storm for March though. Timing matches the big SOI crash ten days ago. Not bad for Southern Colorado either.

Check out the warm up since mid-February.

Nino 4 convective forcing looks like it is coming back after getting shut down for about 2-3 months. Temps there are about to hit 28.0C again. The anomalies for the past four weeks are just not that impressive even on the warm 1991-2020 baseline: Nino 1.2: +0.13C Nino 3 : -0.35C Nino 3.4: -0.68C Nino 4 : -0.68C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4

WPC for Monday-Wednesday. The latest GFS is a little bit faster with when precipitation arrives Tues-Weds down here. I think we're going to get a coating to two inches in Albuquerque. That's been hard to come by in March. If the airport gets at least 1.5", this becomes the snowiest Oct-May since 2006-07 for the city.

As much as I'd like to believe we'll have an El Nino next winter, the Feb-Mar pattern isn't that different from a year like 1985 which did not become an El Nino. Will be curious to see if we get the 1-3" snow shown by the Weather.com forecast and some of the raw model runs show on Tuesday-Wednesday in Albuquerque. Been a long time since we've had significant snow in March. I'd also like to see this cold season become the snowiest one locally since 2006-07. Another 1.5" would do that. The SOI also returned positive in recent days and that looks to continue through a lot of the rest of the month. May not be far off from 0 overall in March.

GFS/Euro both pretty similar for the system in the day 2.5-3.5, and 3.5-4.5 range down here. Not a bad setup for Southern Colorado in the initial day either. Looks like 1-4 feet of snow for the highest mountains down here.

Still a lot more snow coming for the West for at least the next couple of weeks. Looks like a good snow and precipitation event in the next four-five days. The snowy West idea I had in my forecast looks pretty strong at this point.

There was a 988 mb low in the same spot over southern Kamchatka as the 970 mb low two days ago. That's probably early April (4/2-4/6?). That might be the final storm in the sequence. There is definitely a break after that. Although longer term, the GFS does have other potent systems up there around day 5 and on, but not sure I buy it. The system the Euro has down here for 3/23-3/24 ties in correctly to the major SOI crash 3/11-3/13. One day 13 point drop, with a two day drop of 18 points.

No Jamstec update yet. Looks like they got hacked? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/j/about/press_release/20210318_2/

The short range models can forecast dust and other fine particulates if I remember correctly. That's one reason they tend to do well and not dramatically overstate totals. The dry air was here for sure, we had a dew point reading of -23 the other day just before that storm came in. I'm sure that got mixed in.

PDO update via Nate Mantua: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z -0.54 First time the PDO has been negative for winter in a while. Trend is definitely down in recent winters: 2014-15: +2.4 2015-16: +1.4 2016-17: +0.9 2017-18: +0.5 2018-19: +0.5 2019-20: +0.0 2020-21: -0.5 Most negative winter PDO since 2011-12 (-1.3).

More than half way through March now. SOI is still around -4 month to date. SOI needs to be near +5 the rest of the month just to get back to 0 for March. There aren't really any good SOI matches for +16 January, +11 February, -4 March since 1931. Will be curious to see how it changes by 3/31. The top matches for winter in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1.2 imply an El Nino is pretty likely next year. DJF Nino4 Nino34 Nino3 Nino12 2020 27.32 25.57 25.05 23.71 0.00 1964 27.20 25.69 24.76 23.71 0.53 1950 27.15 25.41 24.86 23.67 0.55 1954 27.27 25.56 24.73 23.34 0.75 1984 27.59 25.55 24.62 23.64 0.78 2000 27.46 25.87 25.31 23.80 0.80 1962 27.56 25.89 24.91 23.57 0.83 This La Nina wasn't very cold in the eastern zones in the winter. The below lists are all years within 0.2C of observed SSTs in Dec-Feb. Since Nino 3 was only -0.5C or so against 1951-2010, there are far more years close to its temperatures than in Nino 3.4 or 4, which were much colder compared to their averages. Structurally, the years that were closest, within 0.2C in 3-4 of the four Nino zones in winter were 1950-51, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2011-12. The blend of the four years would give you a weak El Nino in fall, since 2012 almost became an El Nino. But then a rapid decay in winter. 1951-52 would be classified as a Neutral today anyway with the warmer Nino 3.4 baseline. 1996-97 is a cold Neutral that rapidly started to warm in Nino 1.2 in February/March. Top Matches for Nino 4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 2000, 2008, 2011. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 2009. Neutrals: 2001, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3.4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1984, 1995, 2011, 2017. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2018 Neutrals: 1985, 1996, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1986, 2006, 2009 Neutrals: 1962, 1967, 1981, 1996, 2012, 2013 La Ninas: 1975, 1984 Top Matches Nino 1.2: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1984, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997, 2002 Neutrals: 1959, 1962, 1967, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2013 La Ninas: 2000, 2008

Really hasn't been a terrible cold season at all for the northern high terrain out here. Check out snow pack at Taos Powderhorn, at 11,000 feet, compared to the 10 year average (the black line). For March, the WPO & NAO are the strongest teleconnections in the West. WPO has been quite favorable this month. The 6-10 look is basically an idealized +WPO look for the US in March. The Euro is also trying to wake up the subtropical jet in the next six days or so. Despite pretty decent snow totals since September, we haven't had an overall wet month in New Mexico in close to a year at this point, so it's about due for that damn thing to wake up. I think it's real given that it tends to arise from the dead when La Nina dies and you see it via a big SOI collapse. Past three weeks the SOI is predominantly negative.