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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    I should have known when they were showing a tanking -NAO after we already had the coming-out-of-NAO storm. It almost never works out. The NAO always goes neutral or positive.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    0z NAM is going NW
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    BOOM
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    I'm on Kelvin wave watch for the Spring.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Did you know that TB won the SB in TB this year?
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Just amazing for what's going on at the surface.. a legit La Nina
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    50s/60s may be coming.. it might be over. It's hard to snow in March with all that -PNA potential energy from February
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Look at this, +EPO, +NAO.. it's going to get a lot warmer than modeled.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    NAM at 84hrs.. this is what I'm thinking
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    GFS ensembles are rain Edit: maybe ice, but it's taking that -PNA track
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Now, a typical rule is, we get ice storms in -EPO -WPO, but not -PNA. -PNA can sometimes ice, but it underperforms. Models have a slight +EPO and +WPO and the -PNA ridge is all the way SE off the west coast.. I'd bet against anything big.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    About 4" here in Harford Co. beautiful snow, Beautiful Winter.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    uh oh... model trend -PNA
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    No such thing as the Euro control.. NAM is ridiculous for next 48 hours, but maybe we are setting up moisture potential for storm
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    I don't know, with a +500dm block to the north, other things should be happening. It's their for 4 days. A west-based -NAO lol
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Right now the lag for 10mb = -NAO is 20 days. This is right on track with 15D model imo. Will see if 10mb strengthens with next -NAO 500mb peak, but this looks like a descending happening, 2-3 days away from "out of it". Edit: I think Feb 5 is +20 days, Feb 10 is +15 days.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    -AO this Winter lol I think we are lagging
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    The only Winter's that are really going to compare to the AO we have this Winter are 2010, 1977, 1969, 1963
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    I don't like February Arctic blasts... too much southery flow at the surface underneath. We have till like Jan 31st imo.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    I wouldn't be surprised if a Weak El Nino develops in the Spring.. Nothing stronger, like Moderate or Strong though. I have an intuition for La Nina conditions/-PDO through 2021-2024... maybe not, maybe I'm just feeling the -NAO
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    (I wonder if falls in the SD of random though)Probably
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Still a pretty strong La Nina signature if you ask me. It might fizzle out into the Spring.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Love this, 3rd day of snow here. -NAO storm, dark grey clouds, light fluffy snow on the back end.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Lately, the NAO state in February lasts through March. This one is Stratosphere warming induced though, and the correlation at +60days is about 0.03, AO is 0.05 Also, my NAO index forecast N Atlantic SSTs for the Winter was -0.1, so a much more negative March could be pretty drastic difference.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Btw, this timeframe for -NAO is exactly at +20-25 days the 10mb Stratosphere warming, which is +verification yet again (regardless of if 500mb is - or not in the beginning).
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