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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    I think it's weird that the deep South doesn't historically get more snowstorms..
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    We kind of have a +PNA now too. I wonder if this will trend colder
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino watch, LR models
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    One heck of a -NAO now, wonder if we'll get snow Haven't had this look in the Pacific since December...384hr GFS
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    QBO might be negative.. that is historically awesome with El Nino. (might be random in these new times)
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    I was going to say, in this global pattern yeah.. -AO can be pretty dry too. Even in Strong El Nino you would think STJ, but we might see something like 97-98 or 01-02 honestly. I think right now everything is pretty weak.. I would say Moderate El Nino/-QBO next winter would be interesting but it's week in the face of everything lol (Stratosphere warming could probably turn the PNA+ briefly)
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Correlation to next Winter? Maybe. Slight -AO signal. April 1-15 -NAO analogs.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino's are fun to track, lots of activity. Although there wasn't much snow in 19-20, there was always something going on. Crazy with -NAO
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Lots of arctic ice melt this year. Some analogs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season 19,19,14,18,30 Love to see the structure of some of these storms this year with warmENSO
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    \
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    I don't expect organic El Nino conditions over the US until "Nov" btw
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    PNA will probably hold somewhat despite El Nino
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    I have a feeling early April NAO has maybe anegative correlation to next Winter.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    ^It's the best since 09-10. Next year will probably (75%) be opposite.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Nice, it will be a Moderate El Nino. QBO should be favorable for Stratosphere warming (75% chance). We are in an ugly 4-year cycle though that is +NAO/+AO/+EPO/snowless. El Nino at the surface should be visible mid-late May.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    The subsurface structure today is also surface-oriented+1month. It will be interesting if there is blocking next Winter, because it would buck a strong mathematical trend, which I think is in tact until further notice.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino's/-PDO's are interesting, because they are both warm phase . We will be borderline El Nino at the surface by mid-late May.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Next Winter should be Weak to Moderate El Nino so... QBO should be favorable. I did the neg correlation this Winter (AO) for the +anomaly 2 Winter's before, and I think the mathematic is 3/4 next Winter)
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    We really tore that PNA this year Analogs warm May
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    This -NAO is pretty exciting into early/mid April. I bet I'll get snow in that time. It's one of the rarities that's been happening a lot. One year it snowed on May 2nd here.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    I would expect a trend-warm up for the 3-4 day in the next few days, as this Pacific is nasty for warmth [intrend]. Check it out +500dm in April1st!
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    I thought we were going to be in ENSO Neutral for a few years, but I've since found out the NWS creates storm systems "drought busters" so you never know what is real and what is not. I may have just been wrong. This El Nino looks really healthy.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Based on how the subsurface looks today, I wouldn't be surprised if this starts blowing up, actually. Maybe Moderate El Nino coming
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino coming, Weak to Moderate SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s. In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol)
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, since 2010 Jan and Feb NAO has continued into March. Kind of a positive sign I think, an organic pop. Maybe we'll have a good hurricane season.
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