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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    -3 now in the subsurface. Developing/becoming more negative ENSO coming for Hurricane season: 2020, 2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005,2001 30-15-19-19-15-28-15
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Just a really nice tripole developing
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Some serious technology lol
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    ^Love the cold pool off of New Foundland. North Atlantic is -NAO for Winter right now... interesting to see what happens.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    I agree, I would go with a weak La Nina. It will be interesting to see what happens next in the subsurface, the CPC is forecasting a big +PNA. Maybe by early August we will be saying -0.5 as the ONI peak may be as far as we get.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Really nice La Nina coming forth.. I would like to see this strengthen a bit to predict some good SE and/or FL Hurricane hits.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    More underperforming solar min ascending
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Relative min's ascending fwiw
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    We are not average or below average with the -PNA like that.. the ocean streams are much north or something.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, that's a good point. I was wondering if the highest arctic ice melt Summer since 2010 so far (this year) would help us for the Winter. My feeling is something like 2018 is a good analog, leading to Winter 18-19.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    we are either going to flood the Earth a little bit or get drier and drier.. I'm rooting for the first option. July 2018 was pretty cool, 18"
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    I also feel that it is connected to the Sun, That is why next years progression should be interesting. Wouldn't rule out another March-May warming like this year.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, a lot of my analogs showed a trough/weakness in the GOM and SE for hurricane season.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    I don't like this leading up to the Winter, we would need a nice, organic -NAO.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    There it is... -PNA failproof http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    I was once interested in the SOI*, which is the Southern Hemisphere's version of the NOI. The NOI is associated with Western drought, and has been in a cycle since 1995 possibly tied to ENSO etc.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, we also have the feel of 2018 here where it was cold until about October, then it suddenly shifted for warm Winter.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    ^
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Western drought
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Drought Precip
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    The -2 in the central/core subsurface really feels a lot like 2017-18, today, at least.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    I really like this point for the next 5 years, although I wouldn't rule out 1 Super Nino.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Man, what a cold July. For the whole country being above average, it sure has been really cold. I wonder if this the start of a pattern that will be the Winter.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, I think it will be +EPO
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