Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Excellent post Buddy !
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Let's hope so. Webb's not as confident today as yesterday I noticed. Today's sudden Model changes I think got him a bit. Negative asian mountain torque. As far as myself, I still think back and forth type Winter but, am a bit concerned over Snowfall as it doesn't appear the +TNH Pattern will provide a deep enough Trough to help with low road development. I could be wrong as it'll be close during Time's of +TNH Patterns. Could be the MJO will make it to cold phases with enough amp to raise the odds at the right time.
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Thanks brother. Yeah, apparently Models underestimated RH Southern boundary or the trajectory some. A tad further South is a big deal when 15 statute you go from up to an inch to nothing.
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Can't be. You're in the no snow zone KMRX has for tonight, lol
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Thanks Brother ! I agree with everything you're saying man. As soon as I saw the GFS follow the Euro and they then show a viable way that thing can cut, without strong upstream blocking that's the usual path . I'm still thinking back and forth this Winter but, probably not alot of Snow. I was along the lines of a high probability of mildest Winter in Record but, the slow strengthening Nina and somewhat eastward progression plus the subtle changes in PDO and Atlantic SST'S around Nova Scotia made me back off that.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, holding energy back in the SW like it always has. That apparently wasn't worked on during recent upgrade from the way it looks. -
Thank you buddy.
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Yeah, I did know but, can't remember right off. Noaa I think has those Archived.
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Thanks brother. Sorry to hear of your Uncle . A special one at that . It is tough. I lost a close friend about a week ago due to Cancer. We are here now. It's near Charles town and Harper's Ferry,WV.
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Thanks brother!
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Thanks brother !
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Thank you brother !
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Should of posted this, then you all could see the rest wihin the replies he posted. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862643196632727822?t=jw1eDVzvhzuarys_0b-Abw&s=19
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862645450760671457?t=bmriljybaTSwcBbBT9sFLw&s=19 Explains what I was referring to above to a degree.
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Thank you brother !
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That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip.
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If Webbs right it'll do like Weeklies is showing. I know the warm November tool John uses generally is a good rule if Thumb but, not 100% guarantee as a few Odd out Year's and according to Webb this one has the makings of one of those. The ABNA Setup, Mongolian HP , +QBO and IOD along with a weak somewhat east based Nina may help force the typical Aleutian HP further east and poleward. It is also possible, if not probable, wave lengths changed later this Fall than usual due to CC or whatever therefore sending the November Correlation further in time. May sound a bit strange but, not out of the realm of possibility. Just some food for thought.
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Yeah, looks like maybe a lt event Saturday Evening but, probably no more than a dusting to maybe an inch in spots. Another maybe mid week and the one you mentioned a bit bigger. Jeff is right about a possible big one at end of Pattern. That is a commin occurrence known as the Archambault Theory as most in here know about I think. I suspect this will be a back and forth Winter now so, may end up an Average Winter overall for a change. If there's more blocking that manifests against the grain then probably below average T's above Snow. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! May God bless you all.
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Archambault Theory ftw ! Happy Thanksgiving Brother !
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !
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Yeah it was here too. The Valentines day Storm was 6-9" in Valley locations here . A Miller A. Several 2-4 inch deals in January, mainly Clippers as I recall.
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Yeah, makes sense. That's probably what it's reacting to.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, Arctic air being shown draining farther west in Canada and Northern Rockies. Need a strong HP drop down in conjunction with a strong system to pull it SE. Some Models also showing Aleutian ridging by day 10 and trough moving westward. That's a Nina signature. Aleutian Ridge. Hopefully it winds up further east into Alaska. We need upstream blocking to establish and counter . JB used to say, without a block colds not a lock. -
Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well.
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It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though.
