Daniel Boone

HRRR showing similar outcome with this System coming up Tomorrow night as the past one. Rich get Richer if is right as showing this Evening. Hopefully it's wrong. If not, more cold rain with a little sleet and snow mixed in for area's south of Wise and Lebanon ending as Snow. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

If right, the rich get richer. Sad.

The GFS may score here as the same thing as far as mosisture is concerned may do as last System. It kinda looks like an anafrontal wave deal or Lee Low Snow Print.

Yes, that's another reason that makes sense. I was actually wondering earlier today if the wind shifted to the NW that even without a frontal passage our Temp would fall due to upstream snowcover.

I guess I still go by 1980 to 2010 Averages more. The Avgerages have really jumped over the year's and the thing is that's not always caught is the last sevral Year's that jump is added on in the NWS Station Avgs. The Avg high for Pennington gap this Date was 47 Hi 27 low in 2010 I think. So, average is running below that for the balance but not extreme( however, I think that has gone up some now). KTRI now says the Average high there is like 51 or so Low 31 I think. That's several degrees milder than used to be for there. So, with "Today's" Averages we're running a good bit below. the point basically being the difference in comparison to our west and East. There is a Spike through here of not of below as the aforementioned. I think John actually hit it with the western Ridge Height as far as the point being addressed. I see your reasoning though as the cold we have got has been constant. Of which is a rarity, especially this early.

So far the truly cold air hasn't been making it into the Great Valley this Month. You can see how it fell down west and East of the Great Valley in the Month T Plot. It's in the 40's Today. That falls within Average for here. This Mornings Low was above Average due to being socked in with Fog and low St Deck. Yesterday was near Normal as far as daily goes. The point being, although much of the East( MW, Oh Valley, NE and MA have been very cold, our Area and Southeastward hasn't in comparison. Qustion to debate is, the Reason why?. I'd like to see what everyone can come up with and get a common denominator . Mine is no strong Hp press down western slopes of Apps. Then there has been the residual heat Sourh of us left over from the Cuban HP that weakened and moved on SEward that pulls up toward the Jet and mixes. If Modeling is correct showing the strong HP coming down from Canada into the Plains we will be in the Icebox as well as we all know.

Congratulations !

NBM

Congratulations!!!

I do wish we had a bit more cold in Place. If a Lee side develops that won't be a problem. In 95-96 we had snow producing waves akin to last night but with well established Cold in place. We had several Miller B to Miller A Transfer's . Couple of those were big Dogs that went on to be powerful Noreasters. There were a couple decent Clippers as well. I will say, imo we're on track to have a great Winter Snow wise . The Cuban heat HP that had the deep SE flooded with very warm Temps and aided the mild upper Layers of our area to be as mild as they have has weakened and shifted SE.

Yeah, this one may have Legs for us providing the Jet doesn't shift north any. Incidentally, our first major Snowfall of '95-96 was on the 10th. I measured 7" in Pennington gap.

One more great one !

There's a Couple of Duds in there('16-17, 22-23) as well as a couple of near Normal One's('96-97, 12-13, 08-09) along with a Couple great Winter's ('95-96, 10-11) '21-22 was a good Winter along the Cumberlands and western locations but not area wide . I bet they just did the last 30 Year's with these.

After the shafting we Tennessee Valley Folks got from this one hopefully we get lucky with the other's up the pipeline. I had a light dusting from this one. Blacksburg about 5". Even Danville at about 800ft elevation in South Central VA near the NC Line has 3" and still snowing.

Pretty thick above freezing air aloft. It's been rain and sleet here. Finally got a few Flakes mixed in now. All Snow just 10 statute Miles North of my Location ( Jonesville Va). Wise has heavy snow currently.

Exactly! We've received 0.18 in rhe gauge so far mainly rain and sleet. There's some wet Flakes mixed in now. Temp. 33.2

Area's east of the Appalachian Spine have very low DP'S. Definitely going to help them get all Snow all the way down to possibly Winston Salem NC. Too bad we were stuck with high DP's . Would of made a difference irt cooling. That or just have been 2-3 degrees colder at all levels than it is. So close but yet so far.

Everything appears to be a bit North of what guidance had been indicating. SEKY across Wise County should do decent Snow wise.

Light rain and sleet here now. I was a bit concerned as the Temp was running a bit high here and Dews were above Freezing. Would have been better to of had a drier airmass at lower level during onset. Current Temp is 35.7 with 33 Dp. Wise is currently 30 last report.

Same here John. I lived in downtown Pennington gap then at an Elevation of just 1360 and recorded 52 inches for the Season. Much of the Area received more due to Elevation. Wise set State Seasonal Record with 123.4 inches.

95-96 would be great as the warmups were short lived. Below average Temps Dec, Jan and February. Blocking was very prominent then.

Yeah, if it goes to high amp 6 most definitely. If you want a cold late December and much of January better hope that doesn't happen as high 6 Pattern will be hard to dislodge if blocking is gone, the PNA negative and the AO Positive particularly if it traverses into the colder phases at low Amp afterward.

I see several Mets are apparently ignoring the MJO or not looking at it at all as they're continuing harping that the Pattern will flip to Trough in the West soon. I like Ryan Hall but, he's one for example. He doesn't even give a Reasoning other than bound to. Other's are basing on a Couple of Model Runs or an Alaskan Vortex. I agree the Vortex if gets situated in Alaska will alter the Pattern but not necessarily flip it trough west/ridge east. It could possibly flatten the Flow to weaker eastern Trough. Ryan and the Other's could be suggesting a short lived Flip of which is possible even with the MJO Stage and Greenland Blocking. But why not specify that ? I wonder if their bias is coming through or they're wanting their Winter Outlook to be spot on or just doing the what goes up , must come down. Anyhow, enough rantig on a Subject fitting for later lol. They may turn out right. Back to the main here and now Interest unfolding.

Yeah, it appears to be developing sooner than Forecasted. Could be Virga for some time due to a dry Layer. However, Cloudcover did fill in quicker than expected so precip may very well as well. KMRX should hoist Advisories shortly .

If that were to occur verbatim that would be a heavy wet dumping.