Daniel Boone

Yeah. Could be MJO related if some Models are correct in their back into Ph.8 Depiction. Rossby and Kelvin Waves are really throwing a monkey wrench in the Guidance looks like.

My Sister used to live near you in Humboldt. I recall Ice Storms seemed more prevalent there than here back then (80's).

Yeah I disagree with some of their changes. JKL still issues frost/freeze advisories for first widespread of Season.

Yeah, 2013-14 was a cold, snowy January and into February.

I agree completely man. NEPAC and western ridge squeeze play of the Pac Jet forcing downsloping imo. Also helping force that ridge to elongate eastward somewhat. Allows for Chinooks. If HLB sets up , even if that Pac Jet atmospheric ruver were to continue, it's going slow and back and buckle the Flow to some degree, whether alot or some depending on Blocking Strength.

Surely not, lol

My bad, I said Golf Matthew. Sorry man, I'd forgot which one asked. You're welcome !

I was actually replying to Golf as he questioned what the cold phases were. As far as the lw pattern, yeah, I agree although we do have that Aleutian HP but not the typical Nina Ridging up to there. Odd Pattern. Probably a product of the Waves you mentioned earlier messing with the MJO. Interference.

Winter as a whole MJO Cold Phases: 8 1 2 .

Yeah. Would be nice to have a full blown MJO Ph8 Pattern.

Yeah, there's apparently some mixed up data as there's different locations from different Modeling. I think the Kelvin and Rossbys are alot of our problems as Jax pointed out. Makes sense.

Thanks brother !

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West. There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that.

Good,valid point. Post this in the Main Forum and you'll have many going Nuts over there ; particularly the Warmanista and GW brainwashed One's. They'd probably justify the Model's doing that. Fact is, GW is real to a degree but, the Cause and Forecasted Rate is off. Not to say your Post is about GW, just giving an Opinion on why you're right on your Suspicion.

Yeah, had the same Pattern came later that we've been in it's possible if not probable we'd gotten Snow from the cold rain and mix one's we got. I remember doing same as you. When the cold dropped down from North Dakota and Minnesota. Fun times watching Margie Isom . Use to Snow would hit Memphis then Chatt and spread up the Valley. The whole Valley would get in on many of the Snow storm's. Miller A's were more prevalent.

'76-77 and 77-78 were just unreal for this Area. Theyveere great Northern like Winters. River's, Creeks and Ponds were frozen completely over and thick. You could walk on them ! Constant Cold. I'm thinking the MJO hung out in cold Phases. Blocking was strong in 76-77 but oddly the NAO was neutral to slightly positive. Strong -AO Both. Strong +PNA as well. Not surprising, '77-78 was my Snowiest Winter with 72" recorded just west of Pennington gap.

Coz has always been a good long Ranger. Could be right about last half. If so, even with the mild period, it would turn out overall a cold Winter, especially going by this Era's Standards. Glad you had a decent Score over there with this one buddy ! You were under the same bands that moved over here.

A Modification of the current one would work actually. Pop that HP on east into Alaska and get rid of any semblance of a GOA Low and strengthen Blocking upstream. That way the Clipper's and Miller B's would travel further South. The worry of a complete reshuffle is we never get back to a base Eastern Trough. What's really needed is a tall Western Ridge connecting with, in conjunction with or connecting with the Alaskan HP. A -AO as well. Another, although not neccesary but helps, is formidable blocking in the NAO Domain, preferably with a 50-50 or thereabouts Low. That would work for us. An active STJ in the Mix would raise the odds for heavy Snowfalls. It has been weak or lacking in those Area's during this cold Stretch.

Does anyone know why the board is not allowing me to post Pictures. It says only allows 121 kb size. I can't get them that small without cutting most of pic away and very small.

I think the strength and staying power(duration) you mentioned Yesterday may be a strong Indicator irt whether we have a great Winter or not as you mentioned Yesterday. Historical backing. Even '95-96 had a mild stretch mid December before going cold by Christmas. 89-90 had extreme cold the entire Month rhat flipped the last Day to a long mild period and stayed mild overall. The great '70's Winter's as example here, featured a couple mild periods of between 1-3 Days , and those weren't very mild at that ! I remember January of '78 the only one in Pennington that Month and it was one Day. 38 for the High !

1.5" here this Morning. Some melting underneath so may have been a bit more. It stopped for several hours last night before a period more this morning. KMRX is requesting Reports. Please send them in.

Just started snowing steady here. 30.2 degrees.

Wow !

As of now things are looking better irt amounts provided no dry intrusion. Area's that were ti be Virga now are seeing Snow reach the ground. Maybe it's the heavier rates aloft Models may of missed that saturated sooner or could be some lift pulling more moisture up from a fairly moist lower Level and helping with saturation.

Welcome to the Board !