Daniel Boone

Agree. Weak PV from Strat probably part of it. Ryan Maue thinks a full Split is still coming. Also, if the blocking upstream Models are suggesting coming up is right then there will probably be a deeper dive of the Cold into the SE than being shown.

Yeah. Had more warmer than avg nights. Less Frost than usual as well as was October. On that note, what a Frost this Morning !!! Looked alike a light Snowfall.

My Average was a couple degrees colder than KTRI. The high on the 10th here was 33. Some area's remained below freezing that Day. The Month was near Normal. I wonder how John's Location faired.?.

That's exactly what's needed. I was in hopes we'd have better odds for the 50-50 this year as SST'S are somewhat more favorable around Newfoundland. Hopefully we get one setup before long. Maybe if this next round of blocking modeled comes to fruition we'll have one set up.

More Ninoish.

Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies.

Not surprising. Evaporational cooling. Model's are not good with it.

Low DP's will do that. Evaporative cooling . The Model's tend to miss it many times.

Yeah, it's a slap in the face when you see an LP to our South and we get Rain.

Yeah, just after posting about indexs showing positive AO and NAO just like that the Model's flip to showing them going negative and the very Pattern that's needed.

That's what we need.

The MJO appears to be progressing ideally for our Area through December. However, the AO and NAO are not if guidance were to be right. Of course, those Domains cannot be forecasted with great accuracy, particularly the NAO. The good thing that can mitigate the Effects of the positve Arctic Oscillation Modes is the weak south displaced PV. We saw that in 2015 and a couple recent Years. However, if you want much greater Odds for across the Board Snowstorms you want the Arctic Domain Negative. As witnessed , most notably in 2015, Northern Area's can do well as long as the PV is weak and displaced well South in Canada.

If only we can get the AO and NAO Negative. A weak South displaced PV ala 2015 might still work for Northern Area's. If you want great Odds for SE Snowstorms you want a Negative AO and NAO. Very rarely we see all these line up anymore.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! Hopefully we get that stronger push of Cold. As it stands, we are positioned in a way to where it snows west, north and NE of us, possibly even east to NWNC. It's a Classic milder Tongue up the Valley and western Apps. Sometimes that's the case as cold HP moves over NE and the other down the Plains or mid Ms Valley. Allows for a weak ridging of Sorts. Placement and Timing is alot of it. Edit: The 12z Euro brings 2-4" to the VA Border in Kentucky while sharply drops on the VA side the 2-3rd. The UKMET brings decent Amounts all the way to the Spine of the Apps to western NC.

At least you own it brother,lol. Many of us fell for it. The Warmanistas are still trying to twist their reasoning and deny any fails.

Yeah, probably low Dp at onset. Hopefully we get a stronger push of cold with the follow-up System the 2nd. As is, a rain to snow in upper Valley at the end. If Models are correct, Northern VA and much of West Virginia are going to get buried. Much of Kentucky looks to get a good amount as well.

Yeah, the reflection thing is a concerning Factor for sure. As mentioned earlier, it will make for an interesting forecast period with the MJO in cold Phases.

You know he's working on something, lol.

If realized, that would probably leave it's Mark against a possible hostile otherwise Pattern that Don sees. Interesting Times ahead.

That may help irt to snow chances later on as well.

I agree. I see the usual warmanistas on the Main Forum are using Ensembles to preach their warm Outlook still but, now calling it a possibility. Also, not wanting to admit they were sold the first Week of the Month would be warm. I like those guys personally and they're smart meteorologically speaking but, as with many have their biases and let that sway them. Update: Upon further investigation, I see where they're coming from and partially why the , mainly GEFS, is spitting out what it is irr late December. It has a Scandinavian Block setting up. That generally forces a +AO. However, that's being brought on by models interpretation of a reflective SWE and the rebound. Sometimes the Scandinavian blocks reteograde over into the AO Domain and flip it negative.

Yeah, the Trough orientation screams gulf wave or LP Production and even hints of Anafrontal.

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark

There about as lost as I've ever seen them.

Almost as if Analogues were fed into it to get that outcome, lol