Daniel Boone

Yeah, the Trough orientation screams gulf wave or LP Production and even hints of Anafrontal.

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark

There about as lost as I've ever seen them.

Almost as if Analogues were fed into it to get that outcome, lol

Trainwreck. SER flexes on Weeklies. Looks like only part of the US that's going to benefit from the weakened PV will be mainly the Rockies and Plains. Euro Weeklies go from well above first 2 weeks to a basic Average look weeks 3 and 4 as SER is finally squashed. Of course, nothing is set in Stone as we've witnessed these change drastically recently. If they're not factoring the MJO much there may be a drastic change if MJO 8 flexes. Fwiw, the CFSv2 Weeklies are even worse. Wall to wall well above Normal.

Looks pretty much standard La Nina. Not surprising from Them.

Yep. Maybe the Mountains will get a few Flakes from that.

Hopefully, that'll expand East. It appears they're starting to correct from the Trough continuing in the SW. That's really showing the SER Print, lol

Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know.

Baja Low has screwed us over many times in recent Years. Hard to dislodge the Pattern when a standing powerful SER has developed in response. Maybe the MJO will dislodge it if it gets to cold Phases at enough Amp. A Block upstream would help particularly with a 50-50 in place. Without it you risk the SER, -NAO hookup.

Bastardi with a list of similar MJO Rotation Year's. Interesting. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1991636264131375456?t=RlTjHjywEdZ-E3BZU65rwA&s=19

Exactly. 2014 and 2015 had a dominant +NAO and we were cold and very Snowy. +TNH and PNA along with a parade of Systems continually riding up into Eastern Canada that kept pulling the cross polar flow southward instead of it typically getting pulled under the +NAO and into the NATL.

Yeah. The Baja Cutoff is the Issue. If upstream blocking, 50-50 and -NAO were in place we could benefit from it as waves or impulses would travel eatestd from that Baja LP. But, as you alluded to that's not the Case.

The one bias we hope turns out to be the case here is the Euro holding energy back in the SW.

That was my worry when I alluded to SW Trough yesterday.

Models usually get wonky when dealing with Stratosphereic Warming.

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.

Yeah, yesterday backed off and today gained momentum. Models for you.

Yep. It was a frustrating Month. Overall cold but precip almost all fell in the warmups. High of Zero on Christmas for coldest on Record. Not a flake of Snow !

Good work and analysis man ! I'm right with you on your thoughts regarding the Cold Shots as well buddy.

Yep..I.m at 1.6" . Some Locations in Western Lee County in the Valley are at 4 inches.

I always hated to see a Trough dig deep into the SW. Without blocking that generally pumps the SER. With blocking you can get overunning or Waves eject Eastward that pay dividend's. However, with a -EPO you can sometimes get cold highs drop down east of that SW trough and get cold but, usually dry. The above Depictions Carver posted are showing good progression. Somewhat of a SER can be good for our Area as Carvers noted. Waves ride along that Boundary. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7.

Makes sense imo. The solid wall to wall Winter's did basically what you described. High latitude blocking helped mitigate what trips the MJO made through the warm Phases. In some cases, it would go either low amp through or COD and come back into cold Phases( SST'S were supportive of that then). My guess is as your's, in that the MJO will make it back to warm Phases at some point as the SST'S are still supportive for that to occur at decent Amp. As you noted, the -QBO should help. Also, NATL SST'S have became more favorable in supporting a -NAO.

That's the Average December Snowfall 40 Year's ago.