Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Could foul up the prospects of a warm April.
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You can bet KTRI won't have anything remotely close to what you had as far as Snow coverage Days. Be lucky if there's 4 or 5. Same deal in Lee County as well as the "Official" Station near Pennington gap will be erroneously lower in Amounts. I think they must measure on top of the River there, lol. I think Kingsport out done Johnson City and maybe even Bristol irt Snowfall didn't they ? Barring any more, my Seasonal Total is at 19.7 Inches. So, basically the 1990-2010 Normal. I don't agree with the decreasing Averages as often as NWS does changing the " Normals" basically every Year anymore as that's just foolish. The 20-30 Year changes make sense imo.
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Yeah, looking like a warm rest of March after the 12th or so providing the Strat doesn't initiate Blocking and alter things as you alluded to. Hopefully, we squeeze out one last decent Snow Event during first 10 days of the Month. Bring on the Warmth afterward.
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Larry's research using Knoxville as the Site showed mixed results but, clearly showed the MJO apparently had great influence. Alot depends on strength of pattern Driver's as well.
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Yeah, and if there's anything to it at all, it would be further North than depicted unless the Indexes are off base.
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Looks almost canonical Nina.
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West based Nina and Mtn Torq. Depending on MJO that'll probably be correct.
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That's the timeframe that's been looking the most favorable.
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Makes sense given the west based Nina and MT Torq. The drawback imo is the MJO. The Models are struggling with where it's going to be and how much Weight to incorporate.
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GAwx posted his research of what the main Driver's State's were for Knoxville Tenn. March and April Snowstorms . Surprising Results ! Here they are : Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971: 4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO 3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO 3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3 3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3 4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2 4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3 3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2 3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies? -Not ENSO as it was all over the board. -PNA neutral to + -EPO neutral to - -NAO neutral to +….interesting -AO all over the board -MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr) That's from GAWX. Excellent research by him !
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Thanks John. I'd forgot the smaller one's that Month.
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I remember the odd -PNA March 1975 one. 5 inches fell before mixing with rain before ending. That one is the biggest surprise to me. Look at the MJO Phases in all of them.
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Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971: 4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO 3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO 3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3 3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3 4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2 4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3 3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2 3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies? -Not ENSO as it was all over the board. -PNA neutral to + -EPO neutral to - -NAO neutral to +….interesting -AO all over the board -MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr) That's from GAWX. Excellent research by him !
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Thanks for all the excellent work you do Larry. You're the best man !
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Check out GAwx post in the SE sub regarding index's and Snowfall in our Area. Very interesting what he came up with.
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Thank you Larry !! I remember all those very well. MJO appears to be the big driver irt Snowfall during March/April. March '93 really surprised me being +NAO. Post this in the Main Forum and in the TN Valley if you don't mind man. Appreciate it !
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Knoxville. Although I'm north of there in SWVA.
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I think we need Blocking to have a last hoorah in the upper SE/MA and Tn Valley. As of now Models not showing that at all. A tall PNA Ridge could do it for the Tn Valley but, that's not too promising either. What's your thoughts ?
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Oh yeah for sure. I was just agreeing with John in that with all the Cold there should have been more Snow. We hit Average Seasonal here , slightly above if you go by the NWS Calculations of adjusting every Year. Glad everyone had at least a decent Season. Still a chance of adding on .
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19.7" here. Mainly a bunch of Penny and Nickle Event's.
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7 here this morning. Clouds hung in much of the night with some light flurries.
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Yeah, I was thinking that as I replied about the possibility of it getting the MA then got to thinking there is a weakness that the large NS Low could shoot NE through and allow the SS one to cut some.
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Yeah, really pleasing to the SE peeps. What looked like early in as being basically a snowless, SER dominated Winter turned out quite the contrary. Those late Fall near record to warmest Winter on Record Forecasts busted big time. In all fairness, I was one that thought that would be the case as well. I think 99% of us did. The writing was on the Wall with all the Driver's pointing to that at the time. The PDO was the biggest change imo that flipped things. Rapidly went from strong negative to slightly positive. The +QBO was expected to basically keep the AO and NAO positive but, that wasn't the Case. I wonder what might have been had it been negative.?. The MJO was expected to hang in warm phases due to the Nina and PDO. That didn't happen either. What Nina there was, was later developing than Forecast. An interesting Winter to study for sure. A good Project for you Larry.
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Yeah. Couple more chances at least before the fat lady sings. March is the month historically of the real Big Dogs. Man, wouldn't it be nice to end with one of those. That would really uplift and satisfy us all.
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That would work even well to the South. That verbatim nay even be more of a Tn Valley southern Apps mauler. If that Southern System moved due east , by the looks of that it would probably then cut ene and hammer the MA. At least the lower MA
