Daniel Boone

The way things are going, it's really hard to say. For all intents and Purposes P6 should be warm going by the Chart's. It's obviously not . As we know, the MJO has been of low Amp or in the COD alot. Also, the Kelvin and Rosbys have been creating chaos as you've been pointing out. My take is, like you, there'll be a strong but probably short lived warm-up. If the depiction from the EC you posted is correct it may last longer. I just don't buy that deep of a Trough out West. Just my 2 cents worth.

The Nina is still going as evidenced by Satellite Imagry. That is still hampering the STJ. IF the Polar Jet can dive to the Gulf as weathernut alluded to earlier, then we wouldn't need the STJ as it should spawn Cyclogenesis. We could be working into the '95-96 Pattern if we start seeing that happen. Miller B to Miller A Transfer's. Hybrids. Hopefully, the mean Trough becomes far enough west to support the disturbances diving down the Front Range and Plains to the Gulf. If blocking is strong and we make it to MJO P8 , with a weakening Nina this could become a probability imo.

I think they're too low on Amounts for Plateau and upper Valley Locations. We got 1/4-1/2 inch Sunday and they were saying no accumulation. With the NWF Snshwrs after the synoptic shield leaves there should be scattered additional accs from those. That's not mentioned in their discussion.

Thanks Buddy . I'm still not up to par. Energy just doesn't want to come back. Has me rather down physically and mentally. Hopefully I'll get lined out and start participating more. Good discussions going on. Hopefully we reel in a couple big dogs before long. At least it looks almost guaranteed of several light events at the very least. That's a plus nowadays. Snow on snow.

Is that 10:1 or kuchera

Sorry to hear you're sick man. I hope you recover quickly. It did a number on me. I'm still not back to normal. We Had 2 Dustings here Today. One around 8 , the other around 10. Contrary to the MRX Remark of mid to upper 30's in early Afternoon, it stayed 30-32 here from around 9 AM till 5 when it hit the twenties.

I'm late to the Party today. Been feeling rough all day with only 3-4 hours Sleep last night. Things are looking interesting this coming Week. Just looking over the Evening Package Forecast for the upcoming week from KMRX and am a bit puzzled as I'm curious to which Models they derived it from. It's nothing like the GFS . It's pretty mild considering what Data I've seen. Of course, you know how conservative and generally warm biased in the medium and LR they typically are. Anyone have any idea of what they may be looking at?

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell.

Exactly. As far as the upper great Valley you see the sharp drop in amount then the rise after reaching the App Spine, that can be a bit of Downsloping but ,probably in this situation( as shouldn't be much wind) just Model interpretation of that area getting less as alot of downsloping events caused that area to get less and therefore all that data has been ingested into the Model's and they " assume" less for there. Also, some erroneous Weather Observer Data has gone into the Model Ingest System for several Years now from that general Area. That's a Factor as well.

Yeah, and there's quite a bit of good hits in them.

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

It's tough for me. I like a big storm but, if it's just one and no more I'm more inclined to several light events I guess. However, if it were a true big dog ( foot or more) then probably it.

It would be our luck.

He's not yet. He just, in another tweet, basically was hinging that Greenland Blocking was why, lol. Of course, as we know, strong Greenland Blocking can mitigate even strong warm MJO effects. However, from Larry's research that is not what the reason was but, something to do with La nina and the location of it, if I remember correctly.

Snowfall Averages have really dropped off over the Decade's. 1950-1980 Average for downtown Pennington gap was. 20.7" and that was at one of the lowest elevation area's and measurements weren't measured as precise as Now. For instance, measurements were taken generally at one location in the Lawn and not until the Observer got up in the Morning if Snow fell at night. So, if it ended at 12 or so that Night and settling , melting or drifting occured the actual amount accumulated would be missed. We measure in Intervals during a Storm and add until it Ends now thereby not losing any measurements to sublimation, settling etc..

Especially the 37th

We need some Action of some sort Brother. Been a boring Stretch for sure. Hopefully the Pattern finally aligns to where we get some Gulf infused Systems to wetten us up. Large area in dire need. Sure don't need another "Dust Bowl" to develop.

Yeah, I think mainly if there's split Flow. As you know, we have gotten many snowfalls with the STJ Trekking across southern call and across the southern States but generally the Polar Jet Trough is down into the Plains and East. They would tend to merge . If not, a wave riding the STJ would move up enough to produce Snow with HP to our North .

Agree with the south , central and West but further East in the upper South, South Central and SE Virginia, North and NE NC just had their earliest, snowiest start to Meteorological Winter in Many Year's with 3 back to back Snowfalls in early December. Some Area's in the Yukon hit -65 recently. Not saying Climate change is not real overall but, it's still exagerrated somewhat for now, imo. Northern Florida broke Snowfall Records last Winter with 10" in Milton, 7" in Pensacola. Much of Climate is Cyclical. Regardless of what the cause was or is. Greenland was once Farmland according to Archaelogical Findings and Scientific evidence. The cause is Hypothesis and Theories. We don't know for sure. We may continue on a warming Cycle for quite some time. May not. There's been warm periods and cold periods over the Years since recorded History. Some short duration, some long. The little Ice Age for Instance. There's speculation and Theories on the cause of it. In the Late '70's there was serious talk that we could be heading into another Ice Age. We just don't know really. Could be a Cycle to where we go so warm that Greenland is Farmland again. God forbid. Of course, we'll all probably be gone before that Extreme if it were to occur.

Yeah, most of the Time that is the case.

Yep. that Cuban Ridge is there. If they turn out wrong about that we could be setting up pretty good. +TNH works great for us without a SER. Baja or SW Lows pump that Ridge. Without those, there shouldn't be much of an SER. Hopefully guidance is off on those hanging there.

I see they finally changed their Tune a bit.

Lol true. I was just carrying on with him. I couldn't help it, lol. I thought he may of intentionally used that word if you put it in Context. Depending whether or not the occurrence was desired or not. He's a good Poster. Great with Teleconnections.

Yw man . I knew you knew. Just a mistake we sometimes make. '76 was the January..it was a cold one in these parts. Not alot of Snow but several small one's. Dry overall.

You're right and right about Coz being right imo. I think I got that right. Sometimes things just go against the grain; atypical patterns and paths. Chaos, multiple, diverse Driver's etc. The strongly negative QBO is without a Doubt a Player in my Mind.