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HillsdaleMIWeather

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Everything posted by HillsdaleMIWeather

  1. NOAA Weather Radio has a tendency to occasionally mess up the numbers in the forecasts.
  2. Probably just a glitch, its happened before.
  3. Could have an interesting situation if the cap breaks mid week
  4. Also models are hinting at some action possibly mid week next week.
  5. The Entire LP of Michigan is under Freeze Warnings.
  6. 0Z GFS is still showing heavy rains across the areas that got less this weekend.
  7. Could easily be an over or under performer, quite tricky forecast and all details won't be clear until at least morning.
  8. SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind may persist another 1-2 hours across the watch area. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected as inhibition increases with loss of daytime. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track northeast from central IN toward northeast IN/northwest OH. These storms are in a zone of modest MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range with 50+ kt effective shear. This will maintain activity for several hours, but as inhibition increases with loss of heating, and as storms move into region of poorer low-level moisture, gradual weakening is expected. In fact, latest 7km CAPPI trends indicate this weakening is already underway. Expect the severe threat to persist another 1-2 hours before storms weaken. The main threat will continue to be hail and strong winds. A downstream watch is not expected.
  9. Severe Thunderstorm Watch out of literally nowhere for Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, those area's aren't even in the marginal risk! EDIT: If you want to get really technical, part of the watch is in in the Day 2 Outlook, and the watch goes to midnight.
  10. Day 2 Outlook ..OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THE FEED OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AS THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR, AND STORMS MIGHT POSE SOME RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.
  11. A surprising thing to note is the GFS is actually more bullish with it than the NAM.
  12. 0Z GFS would have a nice little severe event Wed. night for Southern MI, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio
  13. Just gotta say, I do not like the new proposed NWS product format they are taking feedback on at all.
  14. 0Z NAM would pose a pretty significant severe weather threat in Northern Illinois, and at least some elsewhere.
  15. In a month or two, everyone we know will be saying "I CANT WAIT FOR IT TO COOL OFF AGAIN". Welcome to the best time of the year.
  16. Saturday night is something to watch for our next chance of severe. Instability and shear look alright, same with Mid Level Lapse Rates, especially around Chicago.
  17. Recent mid range runs for December including the Parallel Euro are full weenie. Cold, cold, and snow
  18. 18Z GFS looked much better compared to the 12Z GFS, even gets over 1000 J/KG of CAPE in places.
  19. Closer to now, marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow for parts of the sub. Depending how the system next week evolves it could be quite an interesting situation.
  20. Latest SPC outlook calling for initiation in Michigan in a few hours, says a Tornado or two possible.
  21. Tornado Watch issued, dang weather radio scared the bejesus out of me
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