SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind may persist another 1-2 hours across
the watch area. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected as
inhibition increases with loss of daytime.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to track northeast from central IN toward northeast
IN/northwest OH. These storms are in a zone of modest MUCAPE in the
500-1000 J/kg range with 50+ kt effective shear. This will maintain
activity for several hours, but as inhibition increases with loss of
heating, and as storms move into region of poorer low-level
moisture, gradual weakening is expected. In fact, latest 7km CAPPI
trends indicate this weakening is already underway. Expect the
severe threat to persist another 1-2 hours before storms weaken. The
main threat will continue to be hail and strong winds. A downstream
watch is not expected.