HillsdaleMIWeather

18Z Euro furthest west it's been all day

18Z GFS furthest east it's been all day 

Gotta love the models 

What do our met friends think?

If the GFS is right IWX, grr and dtx would have to adjust up a lot lol

18Z GFS was actually a pretty big jump east 

Hoping for an over performative storm for everyone 

Downgraded to WWA here

Sadge 

Gem is actually southeast as well too, trend so far tonight 

0Z GFS is slightly east, helps the Michigan numbers well

If you all want a good met analysis, IWX did a good AFD, they think the models are overdoing the rain and how north the warm front gets

NAM is east in Indiana and Michigan if it matters lol

18Z Euro is slightly east and a tiny bit weaker

Some stronger ensembles in the GEFS, still lots of spread

18Z GFS basically holds steady 

The NAM has shifted it's low location wildly every run 

Truly the best model 

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

hard 2 hate but yet

For how close we are that spread is ridiculous 

East of the operational seems to be the trend today 

riding the canadian

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Eh, historic would mean 18"+. The marginal temperatures are really putting a damper on what could be a top 5 storm.

If this was colder this would be a historic spread the wealther

Gefs is east 

Hoping for a last second slight eastern shift so us Michigan peeps get the better snows too

17 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

nah, Detroit is out of the game for this one unfortunately

An eastern shift would put them back in, with the model instability who knows 

With the snowpack and airmass the warm air issues on the NAM and Euro both seem just odd

Looking good for us so far @Stebo

Lots of very strong members but varied in location

Just now, sbnwx85 said:

Not a historic run around here but the lake effect can’t be ignored. Going to be a long duration event especially on the west coast of Michigan.

Would take only a little shift back east for you guys to be in the money at least 

Gonna be a close one for a lot of people, nasty blizzard conditions for many are a gimme though

0Z GEM is similar to the 12Z run 

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

NAM has this huge slug of warm air aloft at 850 mb + the surface temps are marginal. Cuts into snow totals significantly across the board.

Think that's a possibility or just the nam doing nam things