HillsdaleMIWeather

FWIW the EWRC looks like it's almost done 

AF308 is doing a buoy drop but other than that we have no recon for a few hours 

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z

Early HREF and HMON on paid sites 

The hurricane models now have it staying a high end Cat 3 up until landfall in Florida 

Pressure falls continuing, down to 959

Recon shows winds are starting to catch up to the pressure falls, Cat 3 winds higher up now 

VDM says eye is closed

IR presentation is looking a lot better now 

966 mb on the drop

Down to 978 on this pass 

Down to 985

Has a nice comma look now

Not every day you see a strong Cat 4 with an open eyewall lol

The eye going perfectly circular in the last few frames is astonishing to watch in real time 

I'd be down to play

House across the tree from mine got smashed by a tree, damage is widespread in the rural parts of Hillsdale County 

It's bad when the little rain and storms Sunday are gonna be the most interesting weather in three weeks

Shocker: The Day 3 Outlook is greatly trimmed back

12 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI.

Here's MKX's take:

 

They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway.

IWX decided to implicitly disagree with them in their afternoon AFD, citing models being all over the place 

Wondering if the less convection tonight could make tomorrow more interesting 

Some of us could see some interesting stuff on the 4th 

More cells starting to fire over lake Michigan 

New outlook out, mentions possible moderate risk upgrade for lower MI later

Enhanced introduced