HillsdaleMIWeather

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

I vote for Mazooweather.

You called first dibs so I shall make it so.

Might be moving to Kalamazoo in the next month, gonna have to change my name if I do lol

Hoping the cap holds tonight so we can get a better TOR threat tomorrow, SPC and IWX are thinking sig tors are possible if there's not a ton of morning crapvection 

Enhanced risk introduced

Being in the warm sector this time locally really sucked, got a severe warning but the winds stayed subsevere 

Just lost power with power lines down all over the county from a massive gust a few minutes ago 

That 18Z NAM Solution would have southern MI immediately go from 60s with damaging winds to heavy freezing rain behind the line, brutal 

Rotation starting in the line in Calhoun and St Joseph County MI 

Lots of run to run variability with this one, small shifts will be the difference between rain, ice and snow for peeps in Northern Illinois and Southern MI 

Line looks to be slowly strengthening as it crosses Lake Michigan 

Supercell is making another go at it just south of @sbnwx85before the line overruns it in a little over an hour or so

6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Looks huge now. Heading toward Knox. Time to pray for those people.

Yeah I could see a TOR-E being needed for Knox

New circulation might nail North Judson 

Nasty cc drop over lake village 

Just now, sbnwx85 said:

SPC might was well pull the trigger now

Mesoscale Discussion 0191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and
   southwestern lower Michigan.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 102153Z - 102330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered elevated supercells and bowing segments appear
   likely this afternoon/evening north of the east-west warm front. A
   risk for significant hail and damaging gusts is possible. A WW is
   likely needed shortly.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, mesoanalysis and radar observations
   showed an east-west oriented warm front stretching from eastern IA,
   across northern IL into southern lower MI. South of the front,
   temperatures in the 70s and 80s F amid mid to upper 60s F surface
   dewpoints are supporting moderate to large buoyancy of 2000-3000
   J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong destabilization is also ongoing in an
   elevated manner along and north of the boundary with 1500-2500 J/kg
   of MUCAPE despite cooler surface temperatures. Strong mid-level flow
   is overspreading the boundary supporting deep veering wind profiles
   supportive of organized severe storms.

   Weak surface convergence southeast of the front has ignited several
   supercells across northern IL this afternoon. As storms cross out of
   the Tornado Watch and the front, they will become elevated. With
   robust buoyancy and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt, they are
   likely to remain intense and capable of large to very large hail.
   Recent CAM guidance and surface convergence near a surface low in
   IA/MO suggest numerous storms will develop within the elevated
   regime over the next few hours. 

   With time, these initial supercells are likely to grow upscale into
   elevated bows or clusters with a continued hail threat and possibly
   damaging winds associated with strong gravity waves propagating
   along the top of the stable surface layer. Given the increasing
   severe threat, a new WW is likely needed for eastern IA into
   northern IL and portions of western lower MI.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/10/2026

Kinda interesting how areas further east in IN/MI/OH might have a higher tornado chance than expected later because of where the front is

Not much forming yet on the west end back in Iowa yet it seems

70/60 probs for TORs

Would expect the watch any minute now 

SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK WILL BE   ISSUED WITH THE MIDDAY DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.     DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE   OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS.    

Union City got raised to 160, sounds like they're debating increasing it more in the future as one of the houses had good anchor bolts 

Round two for basically the whole area Tuesday

165 now, might be upgraded to EF4

Just got a preliminary EF3 rating for Union City, and that's with the caveat that the nws could only access a small area of damage today due to most areas still being impassable. 

MSC has a video of it crossing Union Lake

https://www.facebook.com/reel/909342021952544/