HillsdaleMIWeather

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Even the lake effect weak sauce.  One of the bigger storm fails of all time. I couldn’t give two shits about wind and cold.

The fact that there isn’t even anything to look at in fantasy model ads insult to injury.  

fwiw GRR thinks the lake effect will be pretty damn strong later today in their new AFD once the pressure gradient really kicks in

24 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

This is rather lack-luster so far, and the back end of the snow is approaching quickly. 
 

Will be interesting to see what transpires, but the 3-6” by 1am looks to be in dire jeopardy.  

Some of the stuff from the southwest will wrap around it looks like

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Compare the 03z RAP to the 21z RAP and 15z RAP and you'll see...

Chicago jumped from like 1 inch to 6 inches, clawing their way back no matter what 

GRR held off on expanding any headlines, I think they might in the morning

IWX just expanded the blizzard warning one county to include Saint Joseph MI

FWIW the early runs deepening faster makes sense considering the low is deepening faster than forecast out west right now 

9 minutes ago, BrewCrewMI said:

How do they upgrade a blizzard warning?

I mean for the areas not under a blizzard warning

DTX, GRR and IWX def need to up the totals in their warnings and consider upgrades if trends continue, a couple more inches with the winds forecast will be the difference between intermittent whiteouts and full blown blizzard

Multiple snow squall warnings from the system out west

IWX on the other hand is considering upgrading more counties to a Blizzard Warning later if the higher winds verify 

The 12Z gfs was definitely a run for people east of the lakes, absolutely dumps snow on Michigan

That was a very very odd run to say the least, it was also late, wonder if it had some issues 

FWIW the EPS is coming in west of the OP run

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

At least he has the excuse that the storm is within 2-3 days now.

A global model shouldn't be that bad at 2-3 days in theory.  In theory.

I just more am full of hopium in the hopes that you guys further west don't get shut out, I'd take less for more spread the wealth 

Hoping the GFS is somehow sniffing out a coup on this one

0Z GEM meanwhile with a slight east shift, but does give more snow overall

0Z  GFS on 10:1 or Kuchera is probably the most spread the wealth possible, would be a widespread blizzard with the wind its progging 

0Z gfs coming in slightly west and stronger

The NAM follows roughly the same path but does at least seem to be a bit more moist 

11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Detroit NWS quiet still..

Not issuing a winter storm watch and going on the low end is kinda an odd decision 

Hoping the QPF trends back up, that's killing the spread the wealthness

1 minute ago, JustMePatrick said:

The Wind for those of us in Ohio/MI will be insane.  
 

The back roads in rural areas will be completely impassible I bet 

06Z GFS is about the same, not a shocker, onwards to 12Z!

IWX has hoisted a watch