HillsdaleMIWeather

06Z NAM is still amped and north 

Operational GFS lost the storm

FV3 gained it 

Roads are a mess around here, as soon as the changeover happen stuff got bad. All local schools are closed 

FWIW, the HRRR is having the changeover earlier and earlier in MI. We could get snuck up on. Temps are also lower than forecasted right now.

IWX went for only a WWA for a few counties

HRRR gets the good totals into MI. Gonna be interesting to see what IWX and GRR do

HRRR has me feeling cautiously optimistic 

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Can you post the map further south?

If we actually get the full 7 inches here the Euro is saying, I'll eat my hat.

SE trend continues. Some of the places in IWX might end up back in the money.

Euro cutoff is literally over my house. We'll see if it or the GFS buckles.

0Z NAM has shifted west, has the heaviest snow over the MI/IN/OH border regions 

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This might be a case of the NAM overdoing things a bit but the 00z run gets precip pretty far north.  At first glance it would seem kinda unlikely with the surface low being down around the Gulf coast but there is some decent mid/upper level support well north into Michiana, etc.

 

Also wildly further west compared to the 18Z run. Gets almost to Chicago.

GFS continues slight west trend. Parts of Michigan might actually see some from this if it continues.

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS brings the snow area NW more in line with GGEM/Euro.

Wouldn't be surprised if the trend continues like the rest of the models

06Z GFS trended a little west

Models are in agreement on someone getting something. CMC and EMCWF have been the most gungho on somewhat higher amounts. All models are the system will start the lakes up too.

Moderate snow here in Hillsdale

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

If anything can fire ahead of this line it’s going to get very dicey in this area. I cannot believe the spin for that storm around Monroe

Just as you said that, a discreet cell just fired south of South Bend

Tornado Warning for Monroe County

Northern part of the line has reorganized over Lake Michigan 

According to a local, the Atlantic Beach Pier collapsed about 20 mins ago

Pressure down to 951

Pressure is actually down compared to last pass