HillsdaleMIWeather

11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Oh absolutely. The tilt to this thing with that jet streak is providing plenty of forcing, anyone solidly in the band is going to see some serious totals. I really was shocked most didn't go WSW, especially with it being early season and mid weekday storm. Very dynamic system that can also pull from some warm water on the lakes, should be a solid hit

Considering IWX raised the point forecast here to 3 to 7 at noon, surprised they didn't as well

Absolutely ripping right now, think those higher totals might verify

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

RGEM drops almost 10 for most of Metro Detroit

At this rate of model uptick still, we'll all hit a foot by 12Z while it's falling

lol at the GFS continuing to up the totals every run 

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

They put one out.

Yeah spoke too soon based on the AFD lol

IWX is opting for no advisory at all right now

12Z GFS continues to tick up the QPF and accums

12Z NAM DUMPS on Southern MI

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Their AFD is a bit light though same with GRR. Only talking 2-4" synoptic snow, I hope they don't get too caught up in climo and ignore the atmosphere itself. 

IWX's is a little bit more open to higher total then both of there's, saying they'll have to make more changes if trends hold

DTX issued a watch for the Thumb

0Z GEM holds steady though and clobbers SE Michigan

GEM gets it decently inland

0Z GFS is clipper city

Coming down decently now

Changed over about 20 mins ago

18Z GFS back west and a couple mb stronger

BULLETIN
Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 17.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

It is unexpectedly silent in here considering the casually optimistic eastern trends in some of the models this last run...

 

Yeah lol, that CMC run gives me like 5 inches 

Runs have been seemingly trending more and more that the back end might thump Lower Michigan decently

54 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Long track of high winds and wind damage along the track of the COC of Olga.

 

Still not sure why things are being treated as severe t’storms though.

 

 

 

.

 

It also just earned a MD too lol

0Z GFS slightly weaker and west

18Z GFS now has a weak system instead of no system at all

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

After slowing down on earlier runs, the models have sped up the front a bit in the past couple days.

Instability continues to look like it will be on the lower end.  The modeled temps/dews (dews in the low to mid 60s) would be good enough for a decent amount of severe wx in a lot of setups at this time of year, but overall CAPE is limited by those meager lapse rates.  The better mid level flow also lags behind by more than I'd like to see, especially given the aforementioned problem with instability.  I was surprised to not even see a token 5% area on the day 3 outlook though.  

Still nothing on Day 2, IWX is mentioning bowing segments though

Could be multiple chances for severe weather later this week