HillsdaleMIWeather

Happy GFS "Upgrade" Day!

Now that we've had back to back tornadoes all over for days NegativeEPO has disappeared, until probably the next big  front where he'll complain about it being boring 

Could be multiple chances for severe weather later this week

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day.  Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake.  In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster.  It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe.  Question is just how much of it.  Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity.  Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift.  Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.  

You were right

Seeing as yesterday was the first day of Spring officially, and that temps are doing their usual roller coaster, now is good as any time to start the thread.

06Z GFS a touch north and more amped 

9 minutes ago, Aallen said:

I’m kinda new to this. How reliable is that model?

In terms of reliability you can basically say "At least it's not the JMA"

If the Euro shifts north, I wonder what the reaction in here would be lol

If the 12Z tomorrow shifts north, I think we're all gonna explode 

GEFS is reassuring 

IWX and CLE just tweeted they dont think there will be a clear idea on track until tomorrow's runs, the sampling is going on right now

Still cautiously optimistic for changes, if it flipped this big one way, it could again

Oooooh, first WWA of the season 

Cell on the TN/Al border is getting its act together quickly