HillsdaleMIWeather

GEFS is reassuring 

Just now, Jim Martin said:

Ensembles from today's 12z GEFS.

Ensembles are definitely north of the OP

IWX and CLE just tweeted they dont think there will be a clear idea on track until tomorrow's runs, the sampling is going on right now

Just now, ryanmkay said:

Looks to be further north as well. 

Much much further north than 06Z

06Z GFS coming in a little north, stronger and a little slower .

Edit: A little north is a giant understatement, the low tracks through northern Kentucky now instead of Tennessee 

IWX think's it'll correct north

With that said, it is common for models to weaken/suppress a 
storm in this time range only to slowly adjust back to stronger 
solutions shown 6-10 days out. The main southern stream wave of 
interest is still out over the Pacific ocean and doesn't look to 
enter the observation network until Thursday for better sampling. 
Bottom line...the potential for a more significant winter storm (6" 
plus snow and blowing snow) remains on the table. Stay tuned for 
updates as there are a lot of moving parts still to be resolved 
going forward.

06Z NAM is north of 0Z

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro, you're alright.

Here we go again lol

Still cautiously optimistic for changes, if it flipped this big one way, it could again

Every model now has a different solution, we're in wait and see territory now. Actually excited to see the 06Z NAM now

Euro south and weaker 

All the FV3 is in, it's south... but is north with its totals 

Still time to turn it around, bad runs happen and no need to freak yet this far out 

Welp, GEFS is south

FV3 is similar to 18Z, south.

The GEM is probably the most amped it's ever been on this system 

Just now, Stebo said:

I am trying to figure out why the GFS handled things the way it did because it wasn't like it started off differently at all.

Would be funny if the ensembles end up north again 

GEM coming in south with the Thursday wave

The level of inconsistency the OP GFS has been showing is still going, wait for the ensembles again is the motto of the night 

Oooooh, first WWA of the season 

This is a good learning lesson for everyone: Dont freak over the operational runs, wait for the ensembles