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Posts posted by HillsdaleMIWeather
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IR presentation just suddenly exploded with new convection around the eyewall
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NHC goes southwest, significantly increases rainfall because of the stall
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Appears recon is heading home, just as it starts to look better and better.
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Pressure is surprisingly rising, went from 944 to 947
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Just now, jojo762 said:
Looks like recon had ~130kt FL winds and ~110kt (~126mph) SFMR winds in the NE quad. So roughly still a 130mph cat 4.
Winds in the SE quad are finally increasing too, and convection is rapidly forming in the southern part of the storm.
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Recon showing the stronger winds are making it further down now
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NHC holds at Cat 4 because of SATCON
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Maximum surfaces are 120mph in the NW eyewall
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
She does look better on satellite as far as the eye and overall presentation, than even an hour ago.
Yeah this was at 23:13
Versus now
(doesn't embed right, click the links)
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Hurricane force winds extend way out
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Downtick in strength is obviously from an EWRC
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Just got an unflagged 55 KT SFMR
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Down a couple mb on the core pass
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Hawaii dodged the wind bullet, but the rain is still gonna be significant
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Newest track fix in has Lane moving due north, eastern models might sadly verify
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The insane thing about this system is, even though we're in the age of modern meteorology, it's basically a 50/50 shot at landfall
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The CPHC cone also shifted east this advisory
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Someones gotta bite the bullet and make this thread eventually, so I will.
Current indications show a moderate to strong El Nino affecting us this winter, possibly leading to some interesting conditions
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0Z HWRF has the big island getting smacked by the eyewall
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1 minute ago, hlcater said:
Yea they’re definitely in over their heads here. Central pacific doesn’t deal with many strong cyclones, let alone ones that pose a threat to the islands.
And if the island containing Honolulu gets hit, who takes over then?
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You can tell it's a bad performance when you have to agree with the Weather Channel questioning the CPHC
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0Z spaghetti plots are west, however have wayyy less models
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New advisory out, CPHC track is east now too
Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Looks like a larger eye is trying to develop