The Iceman

Euro says all systems go, should be fun from 7 am - 1 pm tomorrow. Not much mixing at all along 95.

12z IBM GRAF

12z HREF, this model has done really well this year.. pretty much mirrors my thoughts

Paul, is the wxsim usually pretty good at picking up the sneaky warm layers? That seems like a really low forecast based on the models and usually when you post it, it's on the high end of guidance. Do you think it's a red flag that it's showing mostly sleet?

I'm not too concerned about turning over too quickly, we have a really good airmass in place. I think we will thump hard from 12z to 18z and most places will see their 3-6" the before the pinging begins. I don't see this being a storm where we flip to sleet after only an inch or two but I've been wrong many times in the past

Looks good to me. A little higher than I'm expecting but Glen has wrote the book on Philly area snowstorms...literally I 'll defer to him.

Final call: 4-6" of snow and sleet along and west of 95 corridor up through 195. 8" lollipops somewhere in this area probably N and W where they don't flip. 2-4" snow/sleet/ possibly ending as light rain s and e of 95 and 195. edit: guidance is also hinting freezing rain may be an issue too. Gfs drops a stripe of .25" -.4" in spots just south and east of 95. Should be a solid winter storm warning event still, 4th of the year, not too shabby.

More like PTBS... Post Traumatic Bust Syndrome. It's a real condition where one assumes the worst based on past model busts in the same timeframe.

That one has an awful track for snow but the low level cold may still be enough for a light event. Something to track, it's gotten colder every run the last few days.

Has the waa thump still too. 4-6" in 6 hours from 12z to 18z... Noice! Hopefully the euro is similar and we can ride the old EE rule.

Also the nam has been pretty great of late, it sniffed out the last system being amped and west way before the other models. I'm not jumping off the ledge until it backs off or these trends continue. Any time you see such a drastic change on models like the gfs or rgem, I always wait another cycle before getting concerned.

You said N trend begins at 00z... This is the complete opposite

Rgem cut back precip totals almost in half though from 18z. That's a bit concerning. Hopefully just a blip.

Nope, looks good!

Down to 6" snow depth that should solidify into a glacier tonight before the next event.

I'm surprised no one posted that we got NAMD at 18z....whoa mama!

Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol.

Eps is a bit further north than the op. You can tell it brings the mix line just south of 95. This is about the last run the ensembles are useful, so let's hope thats as far north as we get.

Seasonal trend has seen the mix line come further 50-75 miles north but this storm has been a bit different as confluence to our north has been modeled stronger as we've gotten closer which hasn't typically been the case. We will have to monitor tomorrow if the seasonal trend of ticking north comes to fruition. If it does, I expect the mix line to hit the Philly area and immediate burbs in lower bucks/montco/mercer. It is almost certainly going to be all frozen though at this point which is great news. If we see that north tick, and I put it at a big if at this point, I would probably lower totals around 95 to 3-6" but I still think this will meet winter storm warning criteria for 95% of the region even if we see more mixing than currently progged.

First call: 4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow.

Euro is a nice hit, definitely further south with the heaviest banding on the WAA snows than other guidance which is where we want it right now. The event is all snow for everyone except s jersey which gets some mixing towards but also gets the most qpf. Exactly where we want to be right now. I'm cautiously optimistic for a solid winter storm warning event region wide. Euro is similar to the rgem in its duration. Would be close to a 24 hour storm if they are correct.

Sunday morning is looking cold and may trend colder with the fresh snowpack in place. Icon and gfs indicate possible single digits towards 95, Poconos maybe have a shot at below 0. Should radiate nicely.

Larry Cosgrove said in his recent newsletter than winter won't relent until second half of March. He seems to be on the right track if guidance is to be believed. We get a brief warm up next week(more like seasonal temps), then it appears the cold may return after that. The seasonal pattern has been to keep the blocking in place so I wont be surprised if it bounces back.

Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out. 845 am - NAM 930 am - ICON 10 am - RGEM 1030 am - GFS/Para GFS 11 am - CMC 12 pm - UKMET 1 pm - Euro

Gefs/eps/geps all seem to want to bring north atlantic blocking back towards the end of the month into March. Thursday may not be the last hurrah? It looks like we will also be battling the se ridge but that honestly may play to our advantage in March as long as we have the blocking. Potentially more fun ahead.. We have had an incredible run of epic Marches besides last year. If we get another March mauling, we could see some spots get into the top 10 seasonal snowfalls. Pretty crazy considering we were in close to a strong nina.