The Iceman

Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out. 845 am - NAM 930 am - ICON 10 am - RGEM 1030 am - GFS/Para GFS 11 am - CMC 12 pm - UKMET 1 pm - Euro

Gefs/eps/geps all seem to want to bring north atlantic blocking back towards the end of the month into March. Thursday may not be the last hurrah? It looks like we will also be battling the se ridge but that honestly may play to our advantage in March as long as we have the blocking. Potentially more fun ahead.. We have had an incredible run of epic Marches besides last year. If we get another March mauling, we could see some spots get into the top 10 seasonal snowfalls. Pretty crazy considering we were in close to a strong nina.

Same at my house. Easily 6" left but may be closer to 8-10" in spots. Going to be a rough day though meltwise with temps in the mid 40s. Still think I won't have any bare patches heading into Thurs.

I'm with ralph, every storm this year has ticked north as we got closer. I have a feeling that 95 and immediate burbs see much more sleet than currently progged . These warm layers are notoriously tough to get correct and many times they end up further north than modeled. Trust me I want a 6-8" storm to finish out the year, but I just have a feeling this one will end up 2-4" of cement for 95 And the burbs. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on the lehigh valley taking the brunt of this one. We'll see though, I'm going to miss the tracking, this month has been a blast in that regard.

Yeah 9 times out of 10 we see 10:1 ratios around here. It's too early to know if we:ll see anything higher than those ratios but 10:1 is always a good benchmark for these kind of storms in these parts. Also important to note that any sleet being factored into those maps is more like 3:1 ratio.

Mt holly first call... Looks good

Picked up .53" of rain last night. Currently 37 degrees and warming. Snow pack has taken a hit but honestly looks a lot better than I was anticipating. Let's get some cold in here to freeze it into a glacier before Thursday.

33 and heavy rain... Did I hear thunder?

31.5 and light freezing rain

2-4" snow/sleet ending as light rain is realistic expectations are this time. Anything more is gravy but I agree with ralph I'm betting this comes north some as we get closer and we see much more mixing than currently advertised. The cool thing is we should thump hard for snow for a good 1-3 hours. Should be a nice topper to regain what we are about to lose tonight. I bet I lose close to half of my 10" tonight. That half is going to be rock solid though come Wednesday.

It's all yours you've been highlighting this period for weeks, it only seems right you start the thread even if it evolved much different than we originally thought.

Thanks for the clarifications Mike, appreciate you taking the time to explain!

Off topic but imo that is pretty asinine reasoning for mt holly to keep the ice storm warning. What is the point of having criteria to meet for the ice storm/winter storm warning if it can be just be issued based on what they believe potential impacts will be? Either it will likely meet the warning criteria and an ice storm warning should be issued or it will likely fall short of that criteria, such as this case, and a winter weather advisory should be issued instead. What's the point of having accumulation criteria to meet otherwise? Or they should just redo their warnings and advisories to include "potential impacts" and scrap accumulation based criteria.

Based on their new ice accumulation map, I'm surprised mt holly hasn't cancelled the wwa's and downgraded the ice storm warning. Seems pretty clear they won't verify now.

If I remember correctly, that year wasn't great for snow cover despite the big totals. We got a big rainer after dec 19 storm like before Christmas that wiped most of that pack, then we had another big warm up I believe after snowmageddon. I'm pretty sure the snowpack was almost erased by the storm at the end of February hit. Then March that year torched. I bet he finished with like 30-40 snow cover days despite the large snow totals

You were literally discounting every other model yesterday because of the euro but okay

It's done this all season long but continue to hug it tightly

B-b-but the euro is the best model by far, how could it fold?

Looks like a lot of mixing on the pivotal clown map

Yup definitely further se with the low level cold air. More amped than 12z too so it might even be colder than that. Won't be surprised at all if we continue to trend colder up to the start time.

I'm unsure what to think in my area. My house runs a good degree or two colder than other areas in Mercer county due to the elevation. I'm right on the border of Huntington county which is under an ice storm warning for .25-.5" of ice. Should be interesting how long we stay below freezing here. I don't envy mt hollys job at all. Could still see it being a nothing burger of mostly heavy rain if precip holds off like the nam or a big ice event Monday night if precip rolls in early like the euro and HRRR. I think it will very much be a nowcasting event and the models won't have a great grasp of the low level cold.

He'll be here... He's one of the regulars around here still. Great dude

Of course the 18z nam ticks warmer. Still a decent .25" icing in the lehigh valley but not much of note down towards 95 and burbs.

Man the meso s are really cold for Monday night into Tuesday. Would be a significant ice storm even down to 95. This one is the most significant but all the mesos drop between .25"-.5"+ all the way to 95. HRRR also is much more significant than the globals with close to .25" frz down to 95. Lehigh valley should prepare for a major ice event.

I think he's including the snow cover from December. He probably had 10 or so days with snow cover then. So new snow cover started jan 30th to present to give the 25 days... At least that's what I think