The Iceman

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models.

Grateful Dead have a few great weather tracks Weather Report Suite: Cold Rain and Snow: Box of Rain: Looks like Rain: Here Comes Sunshine:

Soak it in because it's all down hill from here...

Not much cold air around in that time period. Would need to take a perfect track in order to get snow out of that imo. It's a very thread the needle type situation. Definitely a threat but with a lack of blocking, we will need perfect timing to get this one home. I anticipate seeing some fantasy runs though. Just not really sold on it yet until more things are hashed out. Would like to see a stronger HP to the north for one. Seasonal trend has been for these storms to hug the coast or ride just inland, so honestly that's what I'm anticipating with this one. I would be much more excited for this one if I lived in central PA. We'll see though, at least it is something to watch.

Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock....

Has there ever been a winter that was wall to wall hostile for snow that wasn't a super nino/nina? Seems like even in our worst of winters, we manage to pull out a 2 week period of winter at some point. Look at our recent bad winters, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08, and even 11-12 all had 2 week windows where we managed to scrape together a decent events(3-6") or 2. I would be pretty surprised if we don't get a similar period in February. I think it's a lock though this will finish as a below average winter, but I think we manage to at least hit double digits total wise. Would be pretty remarkable if we see a wall to wall snowless winter in a netural ENSO.

Finished with an inch of snow and sleet. Was a nice wintry day though 1.5" on the season now.

Fully over to sleet now. Temp still only 25 so we have a ways to go til rain.

Maybe a half inch out there? Nothing going on now. Hoping we can at least get an inch...

Cherish it. These 1-2" should feel like 1-2ft. Could be the last snow of winter.

Just reached 30F here. Will be interesting if we hit the freezing mark. Forecasted high was 33F. Projected to get down to 17F tonight. Should have great radiational cooling conditions with no wind and mostly clear skies for most of the night.

Euro was much colder., pretty sure 95 stays frozen the whole storm. If it changes to rain, it's at most light or drizzle. Great trends! Let's keep em going now..

Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95.

Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call.

3k NAM is basically a non event for 95 with only a tenth of precip falling(mostly frozen though ) . Even up in the LV, totals would be lucky to eclipse 2 inches. Basically a minor nuisance. This storm really is a microcosm of this winter...

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".

Yup, Euro and NAM only printing out .3" of QPF.... cut in half from 24 hours ago. Kind of expected though with the low drifting further and further NW. The best dynamics with the WAA are shifted with it and the dry air eats away at the rest. Plus it's a really fast moving system, precip arrives around noon saturday and it's basically out of here by 00z. Really limits the potential for how much can actually fall. I just hope the qpf bleeding stops today and we can at least squeeze out an inch considering I've yet to hit an inch on the season. But really any more cut's to qpf and this becomes a near non event.

Yeah you're in a good spot for a decent event. Should definitely be all frozen up there. Still may get a lot of sleet though.

If we get a look like this: That results in this: I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility.

GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says.

NAM actually is a decent event for N and W of 95. Pretty much all frozen. Even 95 itself is mostly frozen for most of the storm and only ends as 33-34 degree light rain. Nothing spectacular total wise due to all of the sleet but it would at least be wintry. Something Mt Holly brought up in the AFD is the fact that the storm's later arrival means that Friday night now will be mostly cloud free and could have good radiational cooling conditions. Should help to bottom out temps across the area. Can't hurt. Edit: The ICON is more amped and further NW than the NAM but still has a similar temp profile. It's basically a sleet fest for 75% of the storm ending as a 33-34F light rain for 95. N and W of 95 it's pretty much frozen the entire storm. By the time it gets above freezing, the precip is basically out of here.

6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go.

Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo.

Mt Holly's early thoughts: I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week!

Next weekend has the wiggum rule going for it. I think it's looking like a solid thump to ice to light rain/drizzle scenario. Finally a legit winter threat.