The Iceman

Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter.

Had that fluke in Jan 2016 not occurred, we would be going on 6 straight met winters with 0 snow events >6". 7 out 10 met winters this decade featured no snow events > 6". PHL is now in their 4th straight met winter with zero snow events >6" with the largest snowfall being 4.1". A similar met winter drought came in the late 80's/early 90's. The winter's of 87-88, 88-89, 89-90, 90-91, 91-92, 92-93, 93-94 all did not record a single snowfall > 6" during met winter. Hopefully we are not in a repeat of that cycle...

Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.

Bored this morning so here are some more PHL stats. Since 1884 there have been 21 winters with < 10" of snow at PHL. The average of the following winter was 24.6". The median was 21.8". 5 of the 21 were followed by another year of <10". 11 of 21 were above normal including 2 of the top 3 snowiest winters of all time. So statistically, next year should be decent.

If we don't get a pattern shift in March, it should lead to a helluva severe season in March - April - May. These storm tracks with even a little bit of instability would be severe threat after severe threat. But as I said a few weeks ago, we'll probably punt the entire month of Feb, get a little hope in March that probably fails because it's March, then 8 weeks of cold, rain, and mud. I would be honestly happy if we slide right into spring come March after this winter, but let's be real, mother nature is going to stretch this monstrosity of a winter out as long as possible... Side note: It's growing more and more likely that I set my all time futility record with every day that passes with no end to the pattern in sight. Still an inch below the dreaded 97-98 winter that finished with 2.4 inches. This winter will be the 6th winter in my lifetime(most likely) with < 10" of snow. 01-02 we had 5 inches, 11-12 we had 5.5 inches, 91-92 we had 6 inches, 07-08 we had 6.5 inches. So about 1 in every 5 years of my life so far has been a complete ratter winter. But some good news, in those 29 winters, we've never had back to back winters of < 10 inches. The average of the winters that came after those 5 < 10" winters was 23.8" with a median of 14". So next year should almost certainly be better even if it could be "bad" overall.

Awesome information, thank you! We are planning to hit one away game(against the Yankees), so I will keep this all in mind. I don't really care about autograph's, but I do think it's cool chatting with the players/maybe getting a photo and definitely would like to try and do that. Really looking forward to the experience!

Lot's of moving parts but there is a chance of a fluke next week. It will likely fail but there is a chance we thread the needle. I mean we're due right?

.9" of rain so far with this event. Pretty far off from the 2-3" totals being printed on the models even 48 hours out from the event.

5 miles south of there and I have half of that. Gradient winter

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter.

Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

00z euro looks wet for this week. 3-4" amounts right across SE PA.

6z GFS is a weenie run and a half lol. Sadly, we know it will be gone in 6 hours. Like a March snowstorm.

Despite how awful this winter has been, I still really enjoy ready Mt Holly's AFD's each day. Hinting at potential this weekend, let's see how this threat degrades over the week

Models already locking into that boundary setting up next week too far NW due to the SE ridge. 4 distinct waves all just cold rain. Hopefully we warm up after that because I'm done with this winter. At this point, it'd be cool to break the lowest snowfall of my lifetime. At 1.5" now, record is 2.4" set in 97-98.

Just some stats since there's nothing else really going on... As of 1/29/20, PHL is currently at .3" on the season. There have only been 25 winters with 3" or less on 1/29 since 1884 at PHL. Only 5 of those years managed to get to or above normal snowfall. The most snowfall of those years was 1913-14 when 34.2" fell after only having 2.2" thru 1/29. The least amount of snowfall was 72-73 where they had 0" and then finished with 0". The mean of those 25 years was 11.4". The median of those 25 years was 8.5". There have been 11 years that had less than 1.5" of snow on 1/29. Only one of those years(92-93) finished at or above normal with 24.3" after having just 1.0" on 1/29. The mean for those years was 8.7". The median of those years was 7.5". There have been 7 years that had 1" or less of snow on 1/29. Again only 92-93 finished at or above normal snowfall with 24.3" after having 1" on 1/29. The mean of those years was 6.9". The median of those years was 4.5" Statistically speaking, things ain't looking good the rest of the way. But if you're hoping that we get at least another frozen event, odds are pretty good. Since 1884, only 6 years have had less than an inch of snow after 1/29. 1924-25, 53-54, 72-73, 76-77, 97-98, and 01-02.

I really like the Feb 08 threat. Think it has a great potential. It;s the ying to this weekend's yang in my eyes. Feb 08 has a lot of teleconnections going for it. 06z GFS showed a MECS in that time frame with ensemble support. Really think this actually could be the one...

@Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models.

Soak it in because it's all down hill from here...

Not much cold air around in that time period. Would need to take a perfect track in order to get snow out of that imo. It's a very thread the needle type situation. Definitely a threat but with a lack of blocking, we will need perfect timing to get this one home. I anticipate seeing some fantasy runs though. Just not really sold on it yet until more things are hashed out. Would like to see a stronger HP to the north for one. Seasonal trend has been for these storms to hug the coast or ride just inland, so honestly that's what I'm anticipating with this one. I would be much more excited for this one if I lived in central PA. We'll see though, at least it is something to watch.

Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock....

Has there ever been a winter that was wall to wall hostile for snow that wasn't a super nino/nina? Seems like even in our worst of winters, we manage to pull out a 2 week period of winter at some point. Look at our recent bad winters, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08, and even 11-12 all had 2 week windows where we managed to scrape together a decent events(3-6") or 2. I would be pretty surprised if we don't get a similar period in February. I think it's a lock though this will finish as a below average winter, but I think we manage to at least hit double digits total wise. Would be pretty remarkable if we see a wall to wall snowless winter in a netural ENSO.

Cherish it. These 1-2" should feel like 1-2ft. Could be the last snow of winter.

Just reached 30F here. Will be interesting if we hit the freezing mark. Forecasted high was 33F. Projected to get down to 17F tonight. Should have great radiational cooling conditions with no wind and mostly clear skies for most of the night.