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Everything posted by JerseyWx
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It's really part of the up and down pattern we've been in for awhile. Warm up, cool down on repeat, although the former tends to last longer.
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Good data. Definitely not surprised to see we're in the wetter area. Really ever since June it's felt like we've been in an excessively grey and wet period. Almost never had to add water to the pool, and look how many weekends we lost in the Fall.
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If you add up all the "new snow accumulation" that's like 14 feet??
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Pretty decent wind gusts. Half an inch of rain here since midnight. 42 now down from 57.
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That's why I've been doing periodic clean-ups the past few years. A couple weeks ago for instance, before the snow came, I filled up a whole bag with branches, stray leaves, and some other yard debris. Now when spring arrives there won't be much to do.
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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
JerseyWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
2.5" here today makes it an even 20" for the season. Not bad actually considering December was a disaster. Cold night ahead. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
JerseyWx replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Not bad here at all. Had some heavy rates that added up pretty quicky, and it was kind of nice seeing that again. Storm total was right around 9.0". We'll see what the next few days bring. -
Right but it doesn't matter how much moisture there is when no cold air is available. You'd have to have everything come together perfectly for storms to work out as we keep getting warmer winters.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JerseyWx replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah I mean at this point you got 2 weeks of February to work with. March is never a month to count on snow when you're already in the hole and BN. It does tend to be snowier than December (not that it would be a hard thing to achieve this year) but it could also go the opposite way and be mild. -
Absolutely. I've said it several times but all summer and fall has been very wet and gloomy. We need a pattern shift this spring.
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We've been in an excessively cloudy period since about June.
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I'd be interested in seeing a graph that shows how many cloudy days we've had relative to normal. It seems like ever since the June wildfire smoke that getting a dry sunny stretch has been next to impossible. Sure hope we can start a new trend with less precip, since snow seems non existent anyway.
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Well who knows what Febraury, especially mid-month on, may hold. Maybe even the first week or two of March we can score something. I know it's not ideal, but a lot of years in the last 10 or so have been really dependent upon relatively short but incredible stretches like March 18 or Feb 21. The stuff like 13-14 just doesn't happen anymore.
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This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada. Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year. Any snow we get will have some staying power.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
JerseyWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
@rgwp96Measured 4.25" here at around 9:30pm. Now it's a mixture of sleet and rain at 650'. Not bad and fits within the 4-6" range I was expecting. We'll see what happens overnight.- 3,610 replies
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I'm curious how this winter will play out as compared to 15-16. At this point back then, I still hadn't recorded any snow (like this year), and would only get a half inch until the middle of January. Then came the big storm, and a cold snap in February with some smaller storms. Then came 17-18 with that crazy March and 20-21 with the February blitz. A lot of our better years were backloaded since 2015 and featured a mega storm (March 8, 2018 and Feb. 1, 2021 were both just under 2 feet IMBY).
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
JerseyWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Over 5 inches here, really more than I expected. Lot of roads closed and backed up, including parts of route 23. Need to dry out for awhile now, been too wet of a fall.- 489 replies
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- flooding rains
- coastal flooding
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Exactly...x10 Making it barely tolerable in here. Such a shame how things have changed since I joined 9 years ago. So much to learn back then.
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I don't disagree, but I'm not sure that's the problem I'm seeing on this forum, to me it's two things. 1. People expect too much, too soon. I was just paging through my records and it's not uncommon to get very little snow in December, especially since 2015. Our prime is always January through the beginning of March. 2. The cold camp is way too focused on only seeing what they want to see. Any sort of model run, chart, graph, etc. that shows a hint of warmth is wrong or the poster is just a warm troll, even if they are a credible member. Yet you could show a 300 hour GFS run that has some sort of cold tucked in there, and boom it's gonna snow in 2 weeks.
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I guess they just prefer everyone lies so they can hear what they want to hear, just like when the September heatwave was being downplayed.
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Interesting how it's more noticeable warming in the fall and early winter, yet spring hasn't shown the same increase. Seems like it stays warmer longer, but takes awhile to break out of our chilly springs.