dwagner88

Finally got my power back this afternoon.

Coming from someone who has lived in East Brainerd for 31 years, this is heartbreaking. This thing could not have hit in a worse spot to maximize damage to homes. This area is essentially 100% developed with very little vacant property. A large number of homes are damaged beyond repair. Not just smaller homes either. There were several 7 figure neighborhoods in the path. The area around and just behind my rental house has been decimated. Most of these homes are solidly middle class and would list for 150-200k. This is an economic group that does not need added expenses during the virus shutdown. The width of the path is the most shocking thing to me. This track is far wider than anything we saw in this area during the super outbreak. EDIT: We have a official estimate of 12,000 properties damaged in East Brainerd from this storm. I'd wager that this is at least half of the total number of properties in the zip code.

I was finally able to make it over to my rental property. Somehow it is the only house on the street without significant roof damage. Only an aluminum deck awning was torn off. In worse news, all of the fences collapsed and every single tree is knocked over. The main path of the tornado missed the house by about 100 yards. The entire landscape behind the house has been changed. It was jaw dropping.

The area of damage that the fire department is looking at is nearly a mile wide. Crazy for such a quick spin up.

Ugh. My favorite wings come from there. Worst part is that there’s nothing but houses behind it for miles.

Hearing more damage reports from friends now.

It came awfully close to my house. I could hear the inflow. No damage here that I can tell, but no power. Looked like Hamilton Place over to Collegedale was hit. That’s a densely populated area.

HRRR and GFS both have a significant flash flood event tonight. 6”+ qpf.

I remember this event. MRX put the whole CWA under a winter storm warning the day before. Big bust. We had a dusting in the eastern suburbs.

I'm surprised you got blanked. We are actually turning white in Cleveland. I'd say we have around a half inch on the elevated surfaces here. Grass is white in most places now.

I'd be willing to say that we have a dusting in Cleveland now. Still coming down pretty hard. I checked the doorbell camera at the house and we have no accumulation there, but it is snowing.

Pretty heavy snow in Cleveland now. Really isn't sticking though. Just a bit of slush on the elevated surfaces.

Looks like we are mostly snow now in Cleveland, but still far too warm. 37.

Snow is finally mixing in Cleveland

Dual Pol seems to indicate that East Polk Co has changed over. All rain in Cleveland at the moment.

Good grief. We would get plastered for sure if it were just a little colder. That’s an impressive amount of qpf.

Temperature hasn’t budged here. Still a steamy 48. DP is down to 36. We have a bubble of warm moist air down here.

48/39 on my PWS right now. That’s not very encouraging. DP seems far too high.

Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!

With the last system, this area got lucky with accumulations because we spent several hours below freezing before precip started. This will not be the case for this system. I predict a RN/SN mix with no accumulation for the valley south of 40, light accumulations in the grassy areas above 1500'.

It got pretty close. I know Davidson Rd was closed this morning. It is further downstream on that creek and is subject to backup from South Chickamauga. Storm total for me when I left the house this morning was 2.76", which is quite a bit less than the globals were showing during the day Monday. The HRRR and RAP were correct in showing lighter amounts overnight.

Oh I have no doubt that there will be significant urban and flash flooding tomorrow morning, but I don’t think we are going to see 24 hour totals over 5” like earlier runs of the Euro and NAM were showing last night. I have 1.76” in the gauge at the house, and all of the streams are now bankfull. The next round will put them over the edge.

I have to say I'm pretty pleased with the way the convection in central MS and AL has shut off the taps up here. We are having a heavy shower at the moment, but it looks like we may get a couple hour's reprieve after this. The radar is drying out across North Alabama. At some point this evening that front will lift north and bring the convection with it, but this may help limit qpf somewhat this far north.

Up to 1.14" at KCHA. Still running ahead of everything, even the Euro. MRX issued a pre-emptive flood warning for South Chickamauga creek for meeting flood stage at 18 ft. It crested at 23 ft. with less rain last week. Not sure where that forecast comes from.

Looks to me like the Euro has the best grip on reality right now. It is the only one not significantly behind the surface qpf obs. Showed KCHA in the 0.60-0.80 range since start of precip. Actual obs shows we were at 0.81 as of 11:45. It unfortunately has in excess of 5" qpf falling from this first round. It is much lighter with the second round, as it appears to show intense convection over northern MS blocking moisture return in the area Wednesday. We finish out by noon on Thursday with just over 6".