snowman19

The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter:

It’s hard to believe there hasn’t been a legit drought in the NYC metro area for over 20 years. I guess the streak has to be broken eventually. I honestly can’t remember it being as dry like it is right now in my memory, the soil moisture has to be way low, there’s a lot of brown lawns to be seen in my area…..something that has been very, very rare in recent history

Good post. I think the big unknown is the effects of the record amount of water vapor it ejected into the stratosphere like you had mentioned

The eruption occurred back in January, there is a lag effect of several months. That said, a tropical volcanic eruption of such an extreme magnitude that pumps up into the stratosphere is definitely going to have a major effect on the weather. The amount of water vapor, ash and sulfate aerosols it released into the stratosphere was enormous. The exact specific effects it will have are unknown yet, however, it will definitely have a very notable effect on the stratosphere/weather of some sort

@bluewave @donsutherland1 To add on to the stratospheric (volcanic) impact discussion earlier, the Tonga eruption is ranked one of the largest ever in history: https://www.zmescience.com/science/geology/the-2022-tonga-volcano-eruption-was-one-of-the-largest-ever-recorded/amp/ 2nd article: https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tonga-volcano-afterglow-creates-dazzling-sunsets-across-new-zealand-and-australia

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

Here comes the next round of La Niña strengthening. This trade wind burst is going to be followed by persistent easterlies and trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and significant ENSO region cooling in the coming months. The persistence of this multi-year Niña event is crazy

It was just a matter of time. That La Niña means business and all the factors (-IOD, etc.) are in place for it to strengthen yet again….I don’t think a moderate peak in early winter is that far fetched. And yea, that new Euro is an ugly look if you don’t like heat. Aug-Oct looks nasty, SE ridge city. I think the things to look at going into winter will be 1) How strong does the La Niña get? 2) What does the stratosphere do, given the recent volcanic eruptions and the record water vapor that was introduced along with the volcanic ash and sulfate aerosols? 3) How strong does the +QBO get? 4) Does the high solar/sunspot activity continue? 5) What does the -IOD do? A -PDO/-PMM is pretty much a certainty, not much question there

It was just a matter of time before the WAR/SE ridge popped back up given the La Niña/-IOD/-PDO forcing in place. It is very well coupled with the atmosphere (SOI/MEI). It would not be surprising to see August and September torch, given the upcoming Niña strengthening expected

Evidence is growing for a very strong +QBO event by winter. HM just pointed out, this may have been the most rapid rise in history:

Another point to make is that even though we have entered into a strong -PDO cycle, we still have yet to see any cooling effect on global temps. Despite the hypothesis by some that global temps would drop with a -PDO, they haven’t so far…..at all, in fact the warming continues despite the -PDO. IMO this proves something else is definitely going on (AGW?). Since the 15-16 super El Niño the already impressive warming has accelerated even more. Would like to get your thoughts and @donsutherland1thoughts on this?

Yes and with that record -IOD to go along with it. So much going on this year

@donsutherland1This also may play a role. This solar cycle is way outperforming expectations by a lot. Scientists are calling it an unusually high amount of solar activity. There has been high solar/sunspot activity well beyond what was expected so far this year: https://www.sciencealert.com/the-sun-is-way-more-active-than-official-solar-weather-predictions/amp

Yep. This -IOD is insanely strong. It is positively feeding back into the background La Niña state. Would not surprise me if it helps this Niña reach moderate strength by winter like some models are showing

@donsutherland1 @bluewave The persistence of this multi-year La Niña event is just astonishing. Looks like a big restrengthening is on the way over the next several months, thanks in part to the strong -IOD event helping to drive the next burst of very strong easterlies and subsequent upwelling kelvin wave. The latest ENSO forecast doesn’t have region 3.4 going above -0.5C until March/April:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like a healthy +QBO event is taking shape:

Very interesting stuff. Looks like the +QBO is starting to take shape. Going to have to see what effect the volcanoes, +QBO, increasing solar and La Niña will have on the stratosphere going into winter.

I think it will be an interesting forecast. I’ve seen some experts saying we currently have a volcanic stratosphere. Also looks like rapidly increasing solar and +QBO taking over by winter. When you add in the very rare 3rd year Niña, record -IOD and the very persistent -PDO/-PMM states, it should be a very difficult winter forecast coming up

The new CANSIPS is out:

The models are showing it going cold-neutral during the winter (J-F-M time frame). They don’t bring region 3.4 above 0.0C until around March. The difference between a weak Niña and cold-neutral winter is negligible, would be same result as you showed. The trend going forward right now is definitely for the La Niña strengthening going into fall at least however….

There is also no letup in the La Niña. A rare triple La Niña looks all but certain now. And the -PDO/-PMM mode continues unabated, the -IOD appears to be doing its dirty work. This Niña is extremely well coupled with the atmosphere and yet another period of big strengthening looks very likely:

There aren’t going to be a lot of analogs to go to for this upcoming winter, we haven’t had very many 3rd year La Nina’s

If the atmosphere is in fact coupling to the -IOD, expect Niña strengthening coming up in the next few months:

Looks like yet another JB predicted Modoki El Niño epic fail incoming….this would be the 2nd year in a row. You’d think the guy would just retire at this point lol

Congratulations