snowman19

One thing is for sure, IF we get to early November and there’s a super Nino or one is imminent and IF there’s canonical El Niño forcing, I’m going torch. I don’t care what the MEI or the Macaroni index or the CANSIPS or any other seasonal model says at that point given those 2 circumstances. Again, IF. I remember all the people who got burned really bad going for a cold winter back in 15-16 with their “west-based super Nino” and “west of 1997” wishcasting (ie. JB, Judah Cohen, etc). 15-16 was one lone snowstorm in a sea of unending warmth. As far as snow, I won’t go there because one rogue, lucky, thread the needle storm can dump in super Ninos

Yea, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are all warming. 3.4 and 3 are the warmest they’ve ever been on both OISST and CRW. Region 1+2 is about to warm above +3.5C again, Region 3 is about to go above +2.0C and I would not be surprised if region 3.4 is strong (over +1.5C) by 8/31 on both OISST and CRW, it’s around +1.4C right now. https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

Either way, it does appear that we may well be into a strong El Niño by the end of this month. Coral Reef Watch has region 3.4 up to +1.44C and warming

The atmospheric coupling has already started. Also, looks like the models are getting stronger with the +IOD https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I think the question will be how raging is the STJ? Does it just blast PAC maritime air across the entire CONUS and Canada? A La 1997. I can see -AO/-NAO but are the EPO floodgates wide open? I don’t have any confidence in sustained -EPO and +PNA with a super Nino completely juicing the STJ and displacing the Aleutian Low. And no @4070Benchmark, I’m interested in the CANSIPS peak in 3.4

Oh yea, most likely December is a torch and I think if we had a +PMM this event would have warmed with ease west of regions 1+2 and 3. The PMM is what I believe is inhibiting that, 3.4 is definitely going to warm substantially but I have serious doubts about region 4 warming all that much. The subsurface beneath 4 is already gone

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

I’m trying to find the tweet about the CANSIPS I saw from this morning, if I find it I’ll post it for you. Looks like the WWB in the East PAC is gaining strength, it’s going to cause another DWKW and positively feedback/reinforce this already very east-based Nino configuration

@gawx Just read on twitter that the CANSIPS is showing the Nino going super now, can you confirm? Can’t find anything myself yet

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

It’s also been showing region 1+2 going into a La Niña since March

This: https://x.com/osuwxguy/status/1691164118231781376?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming, the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”, the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again. The +IOD taking shape. The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C

Yes. Agreed. The evidence is growing by the day that we are going to see a super trimonthly peak, most likely in the NDJ time frame. I’m still thinking the peak is in the +2.1C - +2.5C range

Right…..That’s why there’s this huge WWB right now #Clueless [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1690786693232603136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The OHC is coming back up. This MJO constructive interference should lead to a WWB/DWKW which will warm the subsurface and surface further. Also, looks like another -SOI round with substantial central PAC trade wind weakening is coming up. The models show the atmosphere clearly going into El Niño mode and strengthening over the next month. https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is going to trigger a new period of ENSO warming:

Nothing is impossible, all we can do is watch and wait. If I’m a betting man, the forcing moves east by December, given the factors I mentioned, plus the possible super El Niño and the record, extreme warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 but I guess stranger things have happened. There are no guarantees in weather….

I’m speaking of the Eastern Pacific El Niño evolution itself not the atmospheric forcing. The current forcing is almost certain to move east, as has been stated, once the ongoing Monsoon ends and the +IOD forms and strengthens. The current forcing is extremely likely not to just stagnant and be in the same place come December and thereafter given the changes about to take place

Nice write up and yes, as Paul Roundy has been stating, this El Niño is developing like the east-based/EP Nino’s prior to 1980. We are not accustomed to seeing a Nino develop in this way over the last 43+ years. I know some people aren’t going to want to hear it but it is extremely unlikely that the forcing is still in the same spot it’s in right now come December. The seasonal models are seeing the current forcing and just assuming that it’s going to stay right there for the next 7 months. The Monsoon ending is going to shift the forcing east as is the +IOD that’s currently taking shape and will be strengthening over the next few months. As far as the eastern regions (3 and 1+2), that warming is just reinforcing itself at this point through positive (Bjerknes) feedback. IOD: