snowman19

The forecasted MJO wave over the western PAC looks real and is projected to gain strength as it moves across in the next several days. This will weaken the trade winds further, serve to initiate a WWB and enhance El Nino development going into September. The BOM’s new international average of models just came out and it has November at +2.2C, December at +2.3C and January at +2.2C, which is obviously weaker than what the new POAMA is showing but that was to be expected

The new weeklies have 3.4 at +1.5C (strong), 3 at +2.2C (super), 1+2 at +3.1C (super) and 4 at +1.1C (moderate)

This is the +IOD response that should push the SOI more deeply negative https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1696043822529360130?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The +IOD is strengthening rapidly, up to +1.1 and the new model runs got stronger with the peak and also keep it above +1 through January now before weakening it in February. The new POAMA doubled down with the El Niño, it peaks region 3.4 in NDJ, gets it up to +2.7C in November and up to +3.0C in both December and January. It initializes August at +1.2C, which is cooler, yes cooler, than what it actually will be for this month (probably over +1.3C) ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD

The models all show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Given the ongoing, renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 (WWB/DWKW), I see no reason to doubt that scenario. The OHC is also going back up, already over +1, along with the constructive interference from the strengthening +IOD leads me to believe that we in fact do see a super trimonthly ONI peak as well

If this El Nino goes stays east-based and goes super ONI (very likely) and the forcing actually stays there this winter, THAT would definitely be an extremely rare first. Something to watch over the next 3 months….

The only one hyping it right now is delusional JB. He normally bashes it for being too warm, but today he loves it because it shows his wishcasted fantasy of a cold and snowy east coast winter for JFM

I think we are at +2.0C or over on the weeklies by the end of October. NDJ is when I think the trimonthly ONI peak happens, then the models show it weakening, slowly, through March. Given the renewed surface and subsurface warming from the new WWB/DWKW in regions 1+2 and 3, I think this one stays east-based/EP through winter. I’m sticking to my guess range of +2.1C - +2.5C for the ultimate peak. IMO the question isn’t will this event go super anymore….it’s “where does the main forcing/Nino standing wave set up shop for the winter”

Model error, forecasting trade wind bursts that aren’t going to happen. The monsoon is shutting down, it’s full speed ahead for this Nino now, the feedback system/Nino standing wave is already in place

@Gawx Want to add that like you, I think we see a very rapid rise in the OHC in the next month. IMO we see explosive Nino development next month

The ongoing WWB/DWKW activity along with the -SOI is resulting in fast growth and warming of both the subsurface and surface in ENSO regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. Bjerknes feedback is increasing. The atmosphere is finally coupling. With the monsoon ending and the strengthening +IOD constructively interfering with the Nino, it is only going to keep intensifying as we go into September. Here is the latest SST map, note the rapid cooling around Indonesia…an indication that the +IOD is strengthening, it’s already over +1 and I think the models actually under forecasted the strength of the event:

I think it goes super on the weeklies by late October. That said, as @csnavywx posted, people are judging (and doubting) this El Niño and its evolution against the satellite era Ninos, can’t blame them since that’s the only real verifiable data we have. That sample size is extremely limited and small. Paul Roundy has been saying since March that this Nino was developing like the pre-satellite data Ninos of yester year. We are now seeing things really come together for a super El Nino event and come together in a VERY different way than the most recent super El Niños (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) did….

Agreed. IMO this El Nino reaches super (+2.0C) on the weeklies by the end of October. I think we will be talking about this event for many, many years to come. Research papers are going to be written about this one

Excellent point. And @Gawx, the OHC is above +1 again and it’s coupling. The WWB and EPAC DWKW is strengthening. @raindancewx Here it comes…

IMO this El Niño is going super trimonthly ONI, I’m getting more confident in that opinion by the day. I also think it stays east-based/EP and I think the +IOD gets stronger than what the models had originally projected. What happens with the forcing come November is what I’m watching….

+IOD gaining strength @raindancewx

You are the worst, most clueless, worthless, useless member (troll) on this forum. Ignorant as the day is long and not very smart to boot. Nothing but non stop idiocy from you. Go crawl back under your rock

The daily hitting +1.5C would make the daily reading strong would it not? Am I supposed to say the daily reading is weak?

I’m concerned about where it’s going for September, and where the starting point for that month is going to be but yea, August probably averages around +1.3C as a whole

The Nino has gone strong in region 3.4 on the CRW (over +1.5C), yesterday’s OISST update wasn’t far behind at over +1.44…..

I think it peaks a little later, December would be my guess. If I had to make an early guess right now, I can see the trimonthly ONI go something like +2.2C, +2.3C, +2.1C for NDJ. The models show that this Nino is going to be very slow to weaken after it peaks, through JFM. I also agree with Griteater that this event stays east-based/EP

@Volcanic Winter Could you offer some insight into this please?

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1694421806835450262?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree, given the renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 from the WWB/DWKW, I think this Nino stays a classic east-based/EP event, all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Bjerknes (positive) feedback is already going in earnest in those regions. Also, as @Gawx pointed out, the OHC is climbing again and we are about to experience a strong round of -SOI…I’m going a little higher than you for the region 3.4 trimonthly ONI peak, I’m thinking +2.1C - +2.5C for NDJ. This +IOD was under forecasted IMO, I think we see a strong event, we’re already ahead of schedule and it just started. Strong +IOD correlates very well to +ENSO