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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    This fall is and has been finding every way possible not to rain. The new RGEM barely has anything for the metro area now and the late week “event” has turned into a nothing burger. 12z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111012&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  2. snowman19
    Wxbell is purposely skewing the maps cold. There’s no other explanation. They are totally corrupt, lead by Joe Bastardi. Without the weenies forking them over the subscription money, they’d go bankrupt
  3. snowman19
    That’s all PAC maritime air. Look at the vortex/Low over AK (+EPO). The arctic is completely cut off. All the -NAO block is doing is trapping the PAC air underneath it
  4. snowman19
    The long range ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) want to keep a big low/vortex in AK right into late November. That has to change IMO if we are to see some true arctic cold get into the pattern
  5. snowman19
    The new National blend of models is showing around 0.3 area wide which seems reasonable. Better than nothing I guess. But it’s all going to get vaporized once the sun comes out and winds pick up on Monday. I don’t think it does much if anything to mitigate the fire threat and it’s obviously not going to come close to touching the drought. Looks like a total miss now for late next week
  6. snowman19
    I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16
  7. snowman19
    New NMME:
  8. snowman19
    Tomorrow into Monday has underperformer written all over it, the models have backed way off from what they were showing a few days ago. These dry feedback patterns are very difficult to break once they are in place. And yea, late next week looks like a miss. Once again, the SE ridge is hooking up to a south based -NAO. The never ending cycle. The EPS was never on board for a wet pattern on the east coast the next 15 days which was a big red flag
  9. snowman19
    Going to have hope so because the models continue to get drier and drier with Sun/Mon
  10. snowman19
    When the op GFS is the only model showing it, it’s probably a bad sign…..
  11. snowman19
    Once again, as has been the case for the last several years, it’s going to all depend on the Pacific. If that’s crap we are screwed even with a -NAO
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Given how this has gone since late August would anyone actually be surprised if the late next week possibility turns into nothing more than showers? And you know it’s been real bad when we are looking forward to .2-.4 of rain Sun/Mon
  14. snowman19
    The new EURO is showers, 0.2 - 0.3 total QPF for the next 10 days from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast
  15. snowman19
    That big GOA cold pool too
  16. snowman19
    One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast
  17. snowman19
    2020 is not an analog IMO due to the solar minimum which in very large part helped drive the high latitude blocking
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex
  20. snowman19
    As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)
  21. snowman19
    As strong a signal as you will ever see for the rest of this month @Bluewave
  22. snowman19
    The ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are a general 0.2 - 0.4 total QPF Sun/Mon which will seem like a deluge
  23. snowman19
    I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña
  24. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark This is going to become even more of a classic central-based Niña
  25. snowman19
    EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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