snowman19

It’s the same pattern #StoplisteningtoJoeBastardi

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first (strong -PDO) for a Nino this strong

Well if that happens then my February idea I discussed with you back in early November in the ENSO thread is dead wrong. As we showed with 97-98 MJO phase 8 even at the end of December and January could make no difference with a very strong El Niño in place ——-raging jet promotion

OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx last night…stagnated at +2.0C in 3.4 still

I’m seeing Nino standing wave forcing. The thing is, once the MJO propagates east, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño, promote tropical westerlies and strengthening. It may be unintended consequences. We are starting with a stagnated base of +2.0C in 3.4. So it warms how much from there? I do think we see the decaying process start around mid-January and any strengthening before then may cause more jet extension/raging jet into January. As Griteater showed yesterday with the equatorial SOI, this is a very robust event, you don’t want a roided up STJ blasting into the west coast or our good February idea is in trouble. A lot to watch CPC MJO discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

An example of +AAM being too much of a good thing is 97-98 (before I get attacked, no I’m not saying this is like 97-98) but that winter was very strong Nino/+AAM/MJO phase 8. Phase 8 did us no good that winter…..even in January

Yep. Absolutely no cold air anywhere close, all southern stream driven, rain all the way to Montreal

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be Edit: @40/70 Benchmark This pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994. If this does turn into a PAC firehose jet pattern then my guess that February is a good month for cold and snow goes right into the crapper. Going to have to see what January does but if we get into mid-late January and there’s a raging PAC jet pumping away, then we are in serious trouble and I don’t think a -NAO/-AO would be of much help at that point IF that’s the case IMO

@Gawx Looks like a trimonthly ONI of at least +1.9C is a guarantee at this point. I’d give it till the New Year to see if there’s anymore warming….Probably around mid-January this event starts decaying

The polar jet is finally taking a break after the last 3 years

Yep. It is going to take a sustained, substantial PAC jet retraction, a big improvement in the EPO region and sustained cross-polar flow to seed Canada with arctic cold and snowcover. The process isn’t just going to happen overnight given the already large deficiency we are seeing

As long as there is a massive vortex in the EPO region, Canada and the CONUS are going to get flooded with PAC air, cutting off cross-polar flow, equivalent to a big Chinook across North America. It won’t matter what the AO/NAO do in that case, they will just trap PAC air underneath the high latitude blocking

The other side of the pole appears to be going into a positive feedback loop with the snow, ice and cold. They are wayyy above normal in cold, ice and snowcover there, which reinforces itself and creates massive surface high pressure over that area. It’s going to want to stay put. It will not be easy to dislodge that. If we go into January and are in the same boat, it will be a very bad sign. Pray something changes in a very big way over the next month

Was just about to post the CPC update, 3.4 and 3 have basically stagnated. OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx, both CRW and OISST are at +2.0C in 3.4 as of yesterday. Got to wait and see what happens with the WWB once the MJO pushes into phase 7

Not a good sign when you are approaching mid-December and the snowcover on our side of the pole is this bad. Arctic sea ice is also below normal and all of the arctic cold is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia

It’s behaving like a “weak” El Niño though!!!

Like Don just pointed out, the 97-98 winter actually was not a torch, it was just a little too warm to snow because the Aleutian Low was displaced way east and the +EPO floodgates were wide open, PAC jet was raging for months. The AO/NAO were not horrible either. We were just inundated with Pacific maritime air. The MJO waves in phase 8 were of no help either

It looks like all El Niño standing wave convection running the show going into January after the MJO moves strongly into phase 7 then dissipates. This is typical of strong ENSO events once they take over the forcing….the MJO stays largely quiet

The MJO was actually in phase 8 back in January of 1998. It didn’t help

Several of us suspected this robust MJO was going to couple with the El Nino standing wave and slow down

As suspected, once the MJO gets into phase 7, it constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave and slows down. Expect the associated WWB to also increase in strength as we get closer in time. This is almost certainly going to result in substantial warming of Nino regions 3 and 3.4 at the end of this month….it has a lot of warmth in the subsurface and OHC to work with…..

Eric Webb (love him or hate him) makes an interesting point, is AGW making the warmth even more dramatic?

This upcoming WWB and MJO constructive interference is going to have a boat load of subsurface/OHC warmth to work with. We may see very dramatic warming in both regions 3 and 3.4 at the end of this month

The overnight model runs have gotten even stronger with the PAC jet late month. This is pretty incredible