snowman19

The warm signal is actually increasing as we move closer in time. This is a big change from what we’ve seen since the end of November, when the warm signal would fall apart or get weaker as we got closer. By the Ides, we may very well see temps we haven’t experienced since late October

Keep posting digital snow maps and embarrassing yourself

I mean at this point, wouldn’t a SSWE in mid-late March basically just be masquerading as a yearly final warming? Spring solar radiation induced final warmings typically occur between mid-late March or in April, give or take anyway…..

“After next week”. So we’re still chasing day 10+ fantasy snowstorms/digital snow on the models for March after the utter dumpster fire debacle doing that this entire winter….since November to be exact? It’s been an epic bust, a huge failure with these models for months on end….. ‘The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result’

Way drier than normal since December, not a surprise that we’re still in a major drought. If this doesn’t change in a big way in March, make no mistake about it, we’re in big trouble (wildfires, water restrictions) this spring. Met spring starts Saturday and astronomical spring starts on 3/20….

This winter is very reminiscent of 2007-08 for snowfall, not temps of course. Obviously March withstanding, it’s been a much colder version of that winter. The NYC metro area saw a very similar dud of a winter for snowfall through the end of February back then too, very small events from December through the end of February then that was all she wrote. Going to have to see what happens in March, but if there’s a similar March result, I think this has been a very good 07-08 match, for snowfall only, not temps

You misread me. I’m referring to the one that didn’t happen this February. Remember all the hypesters saying it was going to be exactly like 2018?

I don’t think anyone is arguing that it’s not going to get cold the 1st 2 weeks of March, I’ve yet to see anyone say it’s not. It’s the period beginning at the end of the 2nd week of next month that looks to really transition us into spring fast as we approach the Ides. Also, as a caveat, I think most on here realize that March “cold” isn’t the same as December, January, February….even late November cold. Normal highs are rising quickly and you have climo, length of day and sun angle all working against winter at that point. In March, we have the equivalent of a September sun overhead

Maybe it’ll actually happen this time unlike the phantom, hyped 2018 major SSW/SPV split for mid-February. Even if one was to happen in mid-March, way too little, too late for winter. With the lag, we will be into astronomical spring by the time any of it has any effect. Besides that, it’s right around the time we normally have a “final warming” from the increased solar radiation as we move into spring. Color me unimpressed. As far as Joe D’Aleo, if it happens, it would seem he was definitely onto something, yes

The extended ensembles ie GEFS-extended

Do you believe the pattern actually goes full on spring (+EPO/+WPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO) by the end of the 2nd week of March or is this another false alarm? It seems to have good multi ensemble support this time…..

Different year, same ending with him. He does this every single March for subscription money, attention, likes, views, follows and retweets. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. He’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf, zero credibility anymore

From what I’ve read on twitter, he’s supposedly hyping record breaking arctic cold, delayed/“faux” spring and major blizzards/super storms up the east coast in March on the paid Wxbell site. Not surprising at all, he does this every single March

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the models for yesterday, (and more times than I can count this winter for that matter), why would anyone take what the models are showing at day 9 seriously?

Good point. The northeast coast is still in the midst of a major drought. Nothing has changed since the end of November. It’s scary because we risk water restrictions and wildfires again if this doesn’t change in a really big way come spring

March…let’s discuss….

It was March, 2018 and that was anomalous as hell. A record breaking, historic SSWE mid-February caused a SPV split and resulted in a severely negative NAO/AO that month. The massive blocking lasted into April

Agree. Once you get to 3/15 that’s pretty much all she wrote, even for southern New England, minus some freak, highly anomalous event. At that point you have sun angle, climo and length of day all working very strongly against you

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs?

I think any 1” or more amounts will be reserved for the eastern end of Long Island. But yea, I guess we get a consolidation prize of a dusting/coating to half an inch tomorrow afternoon/night

I know you didn’t. Wasn’t talking about you

Exactly. The model depicted PAC pattern isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

When do you think we will know for sure if there’s going to be a snowstorm or not? Thursday at 6z or 12z?