snowman19

I’m gaining more confidence with each passing day that this met fall (SON) is warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. I also see a risk for drier than normal as well; not to the level of last fall, which broke records, but drier than normal none the less

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

So far MJO phases phases 5-6-7 have been heavily favored. The difference between this year and last year is that the forcing hasn’t been as strong/amplified

Don’t ever quote Mark Margavage on here lol

Sure is and the new model runs keep getting stronger with the negative IOD this fall

Back in 2011, JB used the very active Atlantic hurricane season (19 named storms) as part of the reason for going with the cold/snowy eastern winter forecast he had….he also used the -QBO as his basis. We all know how that winter turned out. That winter was particularly painful for him as he kept insisting that arctic cold and snowstorms were right around the corner, from November through mid-February. It wasn’t until after Valentine’s Day that he finally admitted defeat and said his winter forecast was going to be a big bust

Interesting find. JB tries tying it into the NAO….high Atlantic ACE/-ENSO = -NAO winter. I have found zero convincing evidence in that regard. The PNA connection you found is interesting though

This is why I have been saying my thoughts about a cold-neutral may turn out to be wrong and we actually do see an official La Niña. Also, if you look at that subsurface signature, it’s definitely not arguing for an east-based event. Not saying it can’t change by the end of fall but that does not look like an east-based subsurface right now, (Nino 1+2 has been skewed warm for months) which may not really matter all that much if this -ENSO event stays weak…..

If the La Niña/cold-neutral is as weak as you speculate it will be, does it actually matter if the cold event is Modoki or east-based?

No, that supposed relationship between -ENSO and Atlantic ACE is extremely sketchy at best. The only one who really swears by it is JB because of the high ACE ‘95 Atlantic season that lead to the 95-96 winter. I have yet to see anything convincing. JB also insists that -SOI periods correspond to blocking and cold/snow in the east during -ENSO’s even though he knows full well that the -SOI relationship only works when there is +ENSO’s

2013 was low ACE for completely different atmospheric/SST reasons but yea this season looks very likely to be below average

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE

I’m also hedging toward cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña. That said, an official weak La Niña (ONI) would not shock me now

Basically agree. I’m not sure we see -EPO to the extent we did last winter, but otherwise yea. I would be absolutely shocked to see the level and persistence of cold we saw from the end of November through the beginning of March this coming cold season….

There isn’t a true difference between a weak Niña and a cold-neutral/Nada anyway. The emerging -IOD, -PDO, -PMM, +SOI, Nino 3.4 cooling/trades, MJO behavior and the MEI give me confidence that we will see a La Niña pattern regardless. 2nd year -ENSO’s are known for a more Niña like pattern

Look at this drop off in region 3.4. I’m starting to think we actually do see an official La Niña In other news…even though we are descending (slowly) from the solar max peak, the sunspots are still very active as is geomag

Bottom line, something very drastic changed in the global SSTA patterns, atmospheric long wave circulations/Hadley cells, QBO evolutions and arctic sea ice after the 15-16 super El Niño. Is solar/geomag playing some sort of role too? Maybe

Every attempt at a -AMO has failed miserably since 2015

This fall (Sept-Oct-Nov) has the potential to be really warm in the east and I believe possibly drier than normal too….

When Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan are seeing a lot of snow, it’s usually really bad news for the NYC metro area

Definitely don’t mention the 07-08 winter in the NYC forum, you’ll get rocks thrown at you lol But in all seriousness, that winter was a complete and utter disaster for snow south of New England. One of the all time worst for the NYC metro area in the last 30 years in fact…..it ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 and 19-20

Indeed. And I definitely agree with you that there is going to be a real strong tendency for -PNA this winter given the 2nd year -ENSO. Very extensive research supports this

IMO we are all lined up to see a well below average Atlantic hurricane season in both named storms and ACE