snowman19

Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year

Ok JB lol

He isn’t just going for a cold and snowy east coast winter this year, he’s going epic (95-96, 10-11). I can see it coming already. That’s why he’s wishcasting a huge Atlantic hurricane season with recurves and super high ACE, 95-96 (-NAO) and a +PDO. He knows that even if the +PDO doesn’t work out, he can just fall back on 10-11 being -PDO/+QBO, and still use 95-96 if his tropical Atlantic wishcast works out

Record cold and snow was coming for 6 months in a row according to him. His 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 “analogs” and “migrating Modoki” worked out superbly lol First it was Thanksgiving week/late November, then Christmas week, then late December/New Year’s, then late January and early February, then mid-late February “Sixteen Chapel” cold and snow pattern, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, then late March/early April, “coldest and snowiest start to spring in history”. Anyone who actually takes him seriously anymore needs a psychiatric evaluation

Haven’t seen a drop here…

It’s a miracle! Please, let’s go into a long-term drought!

Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes?

I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk

No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X

The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol

Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October

@GaWx My guess is that if the PDO stays negative he will say that and the +QBO “matches” 2010 and if there’s an above normal/high Atlantic ACE hurricane season, he will say that it matches 1995. So it’s the best of both worlds for him. If for some odd reason (in the very unlikely event) the PDO goes positive, all the better. Either way, 95 and 10 will be his analogs, you can see it now

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

“Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!

I hate the heat and humidity but I’m rooting for upper 90’s with 80 degree dewpoints just because of him

Reading on twitter now that the ash plume has reached over 70,000 ft. This is going to be an interesting one to follow

It’s getting more impressive by the hour. Sulfate aerosol measurements are continuing to rise and it appears to be reaching the stratosphere

@Volcanic Winter @bluewave Just to add, there is some speculation that this eruption may reach a VEI 6. Wouldn’t that be unprecedented to have 2 VEI 6 eruptions this close together? I know Hunga Tonga was a 6….

This *could* potentially have big stratospheric implications….major tropical volcanic eruption ongoing. If this thing pumps enough sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, it could conceivably have effects on next winter’s SPV and NAM (AO) state. This needs to be followed closely @Volcanic Winter…