snowman19

Shocker….another winter of MJO 4-5-6 and -PDO

Good info. Low geomag figures into it too

Back in early November of 2010, HM predicted the incoming historic blocking. He said the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major AO/NAO blocking was on the way. He attributed it directly to the low solar and low geomag

10-11 started as a purely east-based event, which is why that early-mid winter did what it did. It was also a solar minimum. Once the Niña migrated west at the end of January, 2011 and was no longer east-based, all of the blocking disappeared in February and it never came back again….not a coincidence. This Niña event is (and never was) definitely not projected to be east-based on any model. In fact, as @GaWx stated last week, some models have actually warmed in region 1+2 on their new runs

I think this slower La Niña progression may end up resulting in a later peak (i.e. the El Niño last year)

I think we can say with a lot of confidence that we see another winter of MJO 4-6 forcing, especially with the Niña and the IOD turning more neutral-negative, which favors eastern IO and Maritime Continent convection. Seasonal snowfall is always a wildcard, since a single event can skew it. The other thing that’s striking right now is the record low arctic sea ice already….that’s only going to decrease even more in July and August

This is only going to serve to drop the PDO and PMM even more. Also going to really strengthen the ENSO region trade winds. Becoming very confident that we see a big uptick in the La Niña in July, also with Maritime convection starting to fire, we very likely also see a rapid rise in the SOI

I figured when I saw the tropical SSTs around New Foundland that was going to happen. There hasn’t been anything even remotely resembling an Atlantic tripole this entire month

@bluewave Might be playing a role in the record low arctic sea ice too you think?

I think this current very strong -PDO cycle was well predicted by a few people after the 15-16 super Nino ended, once that west PAC heatwave off Japan showed up. What was not seen, by anyone, was the historic ++AMO cycle that started after that winter and is still going strong

Besides those factors (Niña/high solar/+QBO), we also have the unknown effects of the cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of 2 months ago. While it’s obviously not going to have a “Pinatubo” effect, it was still a cumulative VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruption that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. I would imagine, educated guess, that it’s probably going to have *some* effect on the SPV. Does that mean raging SPV all winter? No, but it may help to magnify those other factors even if it’s not a huge effect

100%. The author of that write up either has no clue what they’re talking about or is wishcasting. There is zero evidence to support their claim that La Niña/high solar/+QBO is extremely favorable for SSWEs and a very weak stratospheric polar vortex

If you look back at their forecasts over last 5 years, they’ve said the exact same thing every year. They always predict a weak SPV and SSWEs. +QBO/Nina/high solar absolutely does not support a very weak polar vortex and -AO/-NAO. In fact, it is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW. I have no clue what they’re looking at

Nah, Joe Bastardi says the PDO is going positive, just like 1995 and 2014 lol Analogs: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, 17-18

The -PDO is feeding back and reenforcing itself. High pressure regime after high pressure regime in the North Pacific, -PNA and furnace SSTs off of Japan with no end in sight. Given the developing La Niña, I think we continue with this record negative PDO cycle

July’s EWB is starting to look real impressive on the models, that’s almost certainly going to trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and probably initiate big surface and subsurface cooling. Looks like we are in for a big SOI spike too with convection moving into the maritimes. Also noticed the IOD has taken on more of a negative signature, still technically neutral, but it’s getting very close to a classic -IOD configuration

I agree. We saw the same mistake right around this time last year when people were saying the El Niño wasn’t “taking off” and wouldn’t get any stronger than moderate

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024ClDy...62.2925W/abstract

I sure wish Isotherm and HM still posted here so they could chime in on this very topic

I’d say no. We’ve been in a La Niña state for years now. Even though last year’s ENSO was El Niño that’s where it ended, the extratropical state, PDO, PMM and the MJO forcing was pure Niña, stuck in phases 4-7. At no point really, other than the official ENSO SSTs were we in a classic Nino atmosphere

In the unlikely event it goes La Nada, we will still have the strong La Niña background state (-PDO/-PMM) and the semipermanent Nina like forcing (MJO 4-6). With the neutral ENSO you would be at the mercy of those other factors, plus a +QBO and the high solar flux and any *possible?* volcanic effects on the stratosphere. Then 2001-2002 would become an analog IMO and I can’t imagine how much warmer such a scenario would be in today’s AGW, low arctic sea ice and ++AMO climate

Solar cycle, El Niño and La Niña: https://www.universetoday.com/35133/solar-cycle-triggers-la-nina-el-nino-like-climate-shifts/

People are being way too fast to declare this Niña a dud. The EWB has yet to even hit. People made this same mistake last year with the Nino, right around this time, saying a weak or moderate Nino was favored and we all know what happened in the end. Absolutely nothing right now supports La Nada and everything still supports a moderate event despite what the models may show happening

The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response

The 60’s also had the strong -PDO cycle but featured strong -AO/-NAO winters. The difference now IMO is the ridiculously ++AMO and AGW. It’s also possible that the record low arctic sea ice is playing some sort of role. Over the last decade, Judah’s Siberian snowcover buildup (SAI) has been totally useless predicting the NAM/NAO states. Other things like solar cycle, QBO, tropical forcing, ENSO states and volcanism also have roles, but they also had roles in the 60’s…..something obviously changed in a big way @40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?