snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I had thought the PDO cycle was going to change this year, but that does not appear to be the case. I think we remain in a -PDO cycle for at least another year. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be severely negative like we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Also becoming more convinced by the day that we see a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña ENSO (based on subsurface, surface, -PMM, trade winds, SOI trends)
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IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event
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I’m not assuming anything given its way, way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, a -PDO would not surprise me, although I do not think it will be anywhere near as strong as we have seen over the last 5+ years, which were record breaking
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IMO, best guess, we see a cold-neutral, possibly borderline weak La Niña ENSO. El Niño looks extremely unlikely now
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Good luck getting an El Niño with this going on:
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Completely agree. I’d say right now a cold-neutral is most likely, with a lower chance of a weak La Niña. El Niño being extremely unlikely
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I’m starting to gain more confidence in a cold-neutral ENSO. At this point, based on the subsurface, surface, trade winds and the -PMM, I’d say an El Niño is extremely unlikely
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I’m going to take into account the global warming skew and say this past winter was a “late bloomer” weak La Niña. There was very dramatic cooling and EWBs starting in late November/December
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If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult
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If the Copernicus is correct (-PDO, cold-neutral ENSO), it’s probably going to be a hot summer in the east, especially coming off a La Niña (“hangover”)….
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FWIW, this is what the Copernicus is showing for this summer (continuation and strengthening of the marine heatwave in the NW Pacific/-PDO, cold-neutral ENSO, -PMM) also, a developing, descending -QBO:
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Just read on facebook that salt trucks are out up in Pine Bush. Not really sure why, it’s above freezing, I can’t imagine any stickage on the roads, even up there
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Becoming pretty confident that we do not see an El Niño. The PMM has become severely negative (cold water off of Baja). -PMM argues very strongly against Nino development. My best guess right now is La Nada/neutral and most likely cold-neutral
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I’ll take “Things that definitely aren’t going to happen” for $1,000 Alex
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JB, Mark Margavage and a several others on twitter
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After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled
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After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled
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Try again in December. Game over been over
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So much for the record breaking arctic cold, snowstorms and MLB games from Philly to NYC to Boston getting snowed out like JB was hyping last week….
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This March was a total bust for a certain meteorologist from PA who hyped for weeks on end that it was going to be very cold and very snowy in the northeast. Even went so far as to say 1888, 1958, 1993, 2014, 2015 and 2018 were analogs. Couldn’t have possibly been more wrong….
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One thing is for sure, the “pro” met who forecasted a cold and snowy March in the northeast and used 1888, 1958, 1993, 2014, 2015 and 2018 as his analogs failed massively. A monumental, epic bust
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Already 69 degrees here in Sloatsburg under full sunshine. I don’t think we have any issue getting to 80, if not into the low 80’s within the next several hours. Westerly flow/sun/downsloping, compressional heating FTW here
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Mark Margavage posted on twitter that because 0.1 of rain fell last night that it’s impossible that PA is going to see 80 degree temps today because of evaporational cooling. Total clown
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The meltdowns some are having over one day of 80+ is really, really weird to say the least. Like doing all they can to “prove” and wishcast it not to happen, posting any outlier model run that doesn’t show it happening over and over for the last several days. I don’t get it. Just bizarre
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The good thing is it won’t be humid. That normally doesn’t start until May
