snowman19

I was not trolling anyone. My point is this, the hype about the upcoming pattern on twitter is crazy. This is not even close to 95-96 as some are saying there, which was a classic KU monster snowstorm pattern. 95-96 was a 1st year Niña, coming off a Nino, you had ++PNA galore, +PDO and a +PMM, which lead to a Nino like STJ. Super west-based -NAO, strong -AO, strong -EPO/-WPO and it was off to the races. This winter, aside from there being a La Niña is night and day different, the biggest difference being the huge RNA/-PNA, -PDO/-PMM and we have an extremely well coupled Niña, unlike 95-96 where it barely ever coupled. I respectfully disagree with some about a -PNA not mattering, it’s going to help pump the SE ridge and given the ridiculously warm SSTs off the coast, it’s just going to give it more juice. If there’s any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE during a storm formation it will really boost the ridge and then you will have cutting issues. Just my opinion

You are going to get cutters with a full latitude -PNA trough in the west and a SE ridge. Keep following the wish casters and believe that a huge cold and snowstorm pattern is inbound. It’s hilarious

That’s a cutter pattern not an east coast snowstorm pattern

For central and northern New England? Yes I would agree

Here come the “it’s only warm aloft” posts. The severely -PNA full latitude trough in the west, as depicted is a huge problem. It’s a cutter pattern through and through and I don’t care what the abysmally awful GFS shows, there’s no way to sugar coat that look in the long range…huge -PNA and strong SE ridge city, not only that, the blazing SSTs along and off the east coast just act to sustain and positively feedback into that SE ridge and the WAR. Once you get any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE, it’s only going to act to pump the SE ridge even more. The pattern depicted in the long range is not anything close to arctic cold or a KU pattern for us

The common theme through the end of the month on all ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) is the continuation of that -PNA, full latitude trough in the west

@donsutherland1 @bluewave One of the most well coupled Nina’s in history….

You need to move to New England lol

It did yes, but the late November through mid-late December very cold/snowy prediction has been a bust as has the very weak SPV prediction

There have been a few surprises so far since mid-November….remember the “unanimous” predictions for a very cold and snowy end of November through mid-late December? Then there was predictions of a major SSW, SPV split and a record weak SPV for December?……we have anything but a record weak SPV right now:

Mid December looks good? Long range, the GEFS just caved to the EPS and shows a massive -PNA and SE ridge going into late month

@bluewave @donsutherland1 This would also question how long any end of month change lasts….if the models are correct about IO convection firing by the middle of next month:

Allan Huffman shares your concerns:

I agree with you there and I’m not sure where this “SSW”, “SPV split” hype on twitter is coming from, there’s zero evidence of either, it’s clearly a fairy tale…in fact the stratosphere is really ugly right now and may get worse, it’s starting to couple into the troposphere in fact….

You can have a -NAO and a SE ridge at the same time, I’ve seen folks say they can’t co-exist but that’s nonsense. It’s very possible and has happened many times before. That severely -PNA along with the SE ridge flex is going to be an issue. It might be a “gradient” pattern for New England…..

Looks like the Niña/+GLAAM MJO phase 7 composite. The SPV hype has no basis either, there is no evidence of a warming or split and it continues to remain very strong. This illustrates your point further:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 @MJO812This is the big reason to be extremely skeptical of the models showing the MJO propagating into phases 8, 1. In addition to the cold water, you also have extremely strong easterlies from the Niña in those phase areas which would act to shear the wave apart: Also, VERY IMPORTANT, MJO phase 7 with -ENSO, +GLAAM is warm in the east with all the cold dumping into the west with the -PNA:

@donsutherland1The ensemble’s show a very strong -PNA regime though the entire next 35 day period. Near unanimous support:

If the new NMME for JFM is correct, your worry will be valid. It has a super ++ EPO and a PAC chinook across the CONUS:

Even if the -EPO is real, it’s -EPO with a severely negative PNA, +AO, +NAO, a SE ridge and a strong SPV. The cold would dump into the west first, then struggle to make it to our latitude on the east coast

Big questions ahead for the end of the month and January:

Assuming the -EPO develops around the 20th and doesn’t move forward in time, there will be a lag, so with that lag factored in, the effects probably wouldn’t be felt until the beginning of January. Also, like you said, people need to keep in mind that even though the EPO changes, we are still going to have a super negative PNA, +AO, +NAO, a strong SPV and a beefed up SE ridge to deal with. We aren’t going to plunge into an arctic tundra

It’s done, the Euro won, every model (GFS, NAM, RGEM, CMC, HRDPS, UKMET, ICON) has nothing now….

There’s certainly a possibility a -NAO pops, but like Eric said, if it does, it would be post Christmas and more likely the beginning of January should such a response come to fruition, then the question becomes how long does it last assuming no SSW occurs and the MJO goes back into its classic maritime continent La Niña phases (4, 5, 6) which is climo for mid-late January?

It also has a +NAO. So even though it shows that “west-based” -EPO at the end of the month, it still has a very negative PNA/RNA, +AO and a SE ridge on roids come the last week of the month. You also have a very strong SPV. Whether this changes come the beginning of January remains to be seen