snowman19

Looks like another blocking fail for the end of the month incoming. Despite the hype on twitter, this is a normal, end of season “final warming”, not a SSW. Further, the SPV was so strong this winter that the remnants will remain in the lower stratosphere, thus limiting the normal -NAO/-AO blocking that would normally occur with a weakening vortex:

This CPC disco Typhoon Tip posted in the NE forum would argue strongly against any late month “cold” change. We are very likely to see the cooler end of the month being shown now, to correct much warmer as we move closer in time: • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week. • There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event. • The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. • The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

Fort Kent, Maine….perfect place for you to move to

The AMO was severely negative from the end of the 70’s into the early 90’s

But, for the most part it has snowed decently. I wonder what this board would have been like during the 1979-1992 time period….probably the worst 13 consecutive years in history for northeast and mid-Atlantic snow

It’s over Johnny, done, finished, stick a fork in it, give it up, fat lady has sung, let it go, game over, bring down the curtain, lights out, say goodnight and goodbye, adios….a former winter. We don’t live at northern New England’s latitude….

The record -PDO/-PMM state is very telling

As much as I get accused of my “warm bias”, I wonder how long it’s going to be before the usual suspects on here start hype posting in the March thread about how great and epic the ‘snow and cold pattern’ looks on certain hand picked models for the last week of this month lol….I can think of the names and the model runs they will post right now….there’s a few lol

@bluewave. @donsutherland1

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Possibly heading into a rare 3rd year La Niña?

You need to move to Point Barrow, AK

The peepers are out already, which is pretty early for them, they usually start the tail end of the month or the beginning of April. Heard them last night, a sure sign winter is done….

Yea, no, no one got more than a dusting/coating from it

Over now, a dusting

There is so much rock salt on the roads in my area it looks like it snowed lol

Flash freezes are extremely and I mean extremely rare, very specific parameters have to be met for one to happen and even then. @SnoSki14 has predicted (busted) more flash freezes on here in the last 3 years than have actually happened in the entire weather recording history of the NYC metro

Happy Daylight Savings Time everyone!

Not going to lie, I was dying laughing all day today. I was tempted to troll the “Euro!!” posts on here from yesterday but I decided to be nice lol The wishcasting of this nothing burger, non event in this thread was comical lol

I tried warning people yesterday against using the Euro and the NAM, they made no sense given the setup but they chose to wishcast. The RGEM wins. How many times do ananfront snows actually work out here, in mid-March no less? I just got an inch and a half total snow. Especially when you have an arctic boundary cross the area, with NW flow behind it….the lee side downsloping dries everything right out like what we just saw with what fell apart from Pennsylvania….

Storm is over up here in Sloatsburg, sun breaking out, snow ended a half hour ago, prob got an inch and a half, total, roads are black. I’m outside in short sleeves right now doing an Irish square dance

The RGEM will be the closet to reality IMO. Think of how many times rain to snow/anafront type scenarios actually workout here….especially during the day in mid-March, with all the obstacles that come along with that. I think we are also going to see downsloping issues with the NW flow drying things out after the arctic boundary passes

Yea, you’re not seeing that much snow…

1-3 inches

NYC will be lucky to see half of an inch total tomorrow, most likely a coating/dusting tomorrow afternoon

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO