snowman19

Above normal number of storms and above normal ACE

It seems that the musings back in July about the Atlantic SST profile being unfavorable for a big tropical season were correct in spite of a -ENSO. @DonSutherland1 was spot on with his call of a -AAM regime setting up in August as well

The difference between cold-neutral and weak La Niña is negligible. Same atmospheric response. The atmosphere isn’t going to say “I’m going to behave completely different because there’s a technical classification as ‘cold-neutral’ as opposed to ‘weak La Niña’. The classification difference between the two is one degree C

A “La Niña Watch” has been issued by the CPC/NOAA; expecting La Niña conditions come fall into early winter before going back to cold-neutral conditions by late winter into early spring…..

My guess is that the PNA is more negative during the winter than last year….2nd year -ENSO

My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now

It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year

IMO we are more “Niña” than 13-14 was

Unless there is a very radical shift in the PDO to a Victoria mode between now and December, I would not have 13-14 as an analog. The blooming -IOD also doesn’t fit, neither does ENSO

There has also been a propensity for -PMM the last several winters and thus a weak to very weak STJ….

No one here said it will maintain severely negative levels. But is a solidly -PDO winter a very good bet? Absolutely

@DonSutherland1 Looks like the anticipated shift to a -AAM regime has just started

No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part

If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

Tropical cyclones passing through the area

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:

13-14 was not driven by ENSO IMO. It was driven by a Victoria mode PDO (pseudo +PDO) on its way to becoming the very strong +PDO of 14-15. There was also no -IOD in 13-14. I 100% believe we see a weak La Niña this season, given the SOI, MEI, -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, easterly wind bursts, RONI, subsurface

There has definitely been an AO/NAO “disconnect” (they used to be positive together or negative together in the past) the last several years, whether it’s CC/arctic sea ice, possibly even solar cycle related is obviously open for debate. I read on twitter today that the new model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD for this fall. That anticipated -IOD/-ENSO combo, SST alignment, supports MJO 4-5-6-7 (“Niña like” phases) being dominant. Not that such low frequency forcing is any surprise given the last several years….

The thing I’m mystified at is the proposition that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña. You are talking about negligible difference in temps. I can’t get my head around that one

I think this Atlantic tropical season has tipped its hand….

If you read my post, I wasn’t referring specifically to 22-23 and 13-14. I was referring in general to the classification between cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña and a weak La Niña

Interesting that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña, the classification between the two is basically negligible in the SST sense. 2013 was a “Victoria mode” PDO, which looked exactly like a +PDO but was *technically* a very weak -PDO. Certainly possible, but it has a lot of work to do to get there before met winter starts….

Persistent easterlies being modeled over the tropical Pacific this month….I think next month’s long range model updates are going to move further towards a La Niña event for this coming fall/winter…..