snowman19

The people on that train for March are going to be Casey Jones...

That didn’t take long. The phantom cold and snowy long range on the GFS just went bye bye. We’ve seen this movie before, same flick over and over since late November....

Yep, torch city by 3/15, trough dumped into the west, finally a mild March for a change....

It’s farting into the wind looking for snow threats at this point; 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, this one is determined to make its mark in history.....

Yea, the warmup looks to start on 3/3 and possibly get very mild thereafter. So much for that theory about Dennis causing a long lasting full scale pattern flip....

Don, the models are showing the strongest SPV ever on record for March. If correct, wow. And it seems the CFS is continuing its correction warmer for next month as we get within a week to March

Here is the new CPC outlook for 2/29 - 3/6:

How’s Thursday’s snowstorm looking?

One week away....Discuss

This is how many long range “snowstorms” now since late November that we’re going to track?

This says it all right here, the GFS fantasy “blizzard” is a cutter on the EPS. New EPS through 3/7:

Yep, full latitude trough dumps into the west by 3/6. All she wrote...

Hit the repeat button

Sure does, zippo for snow over the next 10 days, no cold air, horrible setup for Thursday, another rainstorm. The beat goes on....

Liquid all the way up to Plattsburgh on the GFS, which has a severe cold/east bias at this range. The models are like a pendulum for next week.....swinging back and forth between rain and rain.....

Did you look at the soundings? The boundary layer is junk

Yep. The airmass sucks. Among other big issues. This is a rain event again

Yep, yet another all rain event coming up next week. Another horrible setup all around, zero blocking with a total junk airmass

Will you when the very cold and snowy March fails?

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient.

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now

It’s more the first week of March for the bulk of the cold if the EPS is correct. Does it snow? Who knows, it’s not showing anything big at the moment. It’s PAC/EPO driven, no -NAO or -AO. PNA is negative

Larry: “The snow risks would be limited to the Front Range, northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.” “I do not accept the colder outlooks spewed out by the weekly model output. There is no sign of entrenched blocking in any of the critical positions (AK/YT, Nunavut AR or Greenland), the flow goes semizonal at times, and the repetition of the subtropical jet stream cannot be ignored. I follow the Canadian ensemble members in shaping another trough complex out of the West and High Plains by March 2. So a return to a cold West vs. mild or changeable East seems probable.”

Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat