snowman19

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed to over +1.7C on CRW, region 1+2 warmed up to +2.8C and region 3 warmed to almost +2.2C

This is interesting (credit to Ben Noll). Going back to 1980, up to this point in time, only 1997 and 2015 have been warmer than now in region 3.4. Only 1997 has been warmer in region 1+2, region 3 is also at record warm levels and only 1994 and 2019 have had a stronger +IOD: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw @GaWx

I agree that Canada and the northern half of the CONUS very likely averages warmer than normal (DJFM). The southern part of the lower 48 is going to be average to below due to solar irradiance/cloud cover, precip with what is almost certain to be a raging, firehose STJ screaming overhead all winter long

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree and people can say how weak this El Niño is all they want….fact is Nino 3.4 has risen +2.5C in 10 months, that is pretty incredible: https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1704929580614594969?s=20

The funny part is, while 3.4 has remained steady at over +1.6C, regions 1+2 and 3 are both warming. 1+2 is back up to over +2.8C and 3 is up to almost +2.2C, so the east-based nature of this event continues. 3.4 is extremely likely to warm shortly, as the eastern region warming has lead the way and preceded it so far in this event and there is and has been strong -SOI. I’m still expecting region 3.4 to hit +2.0C on the weeklies next month

I’m sticking with a trimonthly ONI of +2.2C. I think we hit +2.0C on the weeklies by mid-October, but the real “show” is NDJ. Still thinking +2.2C, +2.3C, +2.2C (NDJ) in that order, also think the Euro is correct in keeping regions 1+2 and 3 warmer than 3.4 and 4 through February. Without getting into semantics, I guess we can call it an ‘east-lean’ El Niño. In addition, I think the +IOD ends up being even stronger than forecast and plays a much bigger role this winter than people think

Here is the visual for the IMME (DJF): https://x.com/weather_west/status/1704550674305008106?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/weather_west/status/1704550676196639178?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I know the Euro showed regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 through February

Don’t kill the messenger. Extremely good model agreement that we see a super El Niño, they are also still showing it being east-based. Latest guidance from Eric Fisher: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1704615564163928441?s=20

We couldn’t sustain +PNA back in 15-16, minus that one lone, perfectly timed historic blizzard in January. And we had a raging ++PDO and a super El Niño over +3.0C in region 3.4 at the end of November. Don’t you remember what was happening that winter? Every time a +PNA ridge popped up it got knocked right back down by that raging STJ on roids crashing into the west coast. The models kept pumping +PNAs and huge coastal snowstorms in the long range only to see the STJ beat them right back down as fast as they popped up

Besides the summer profile, this September’s 500mb pattern over the mid latitudes is matching other strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) to a tee

That new BOM forecast I posted is not based on the POAMA (BOM) model, if you read it, they are basing it off of the International average of models

@GaWx Looks like the Euro is doing well with Nino 1+2 so far….it showed the peak and drop this month, followed by the warmup (it’s up to almost +2.7C on OISST). It forecasts it remaining steady from here on out at just below +3.0C through January

Agree. I think it hits +2.0C on the weeklies next month. The CFS is out to lunch, as usual. The BOM would not have issued that new disco if they weren’t very confident. They have been ultra conservative with this Nino event and the IOD. IMO this one goes super trimonthly ONI….this one is coming. As for where the forcing is in DJFM? That’s another matter…..

No, it’s off the international average of models .

@Gawx @griteater @Bluewave @so_whats_happening @40/70 Benchmark @brooklynwx99 @raindancewx @Terpeast @mitchnick The BOM has just declared that an El Niño is underway and that it is coupling with the atmosphere. They have also declared that a coupled +IOD is underway. Here is the new detailed discussion: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ They are expecting a super, trimonthly (NDJ) ONI event, here are the month by month graphs: ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Pacific-Ocean IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Something is up, even though it’s initializing too cool, it’s still getting this event to a very solid trimonthly super El Niño, you would expect it to initialize too warm not the other way around. Also, notice the spike in January with that being the warmest month? The Euro also showed the same spike in January, with it being the warmest month as well. I’m wondering if there is some sort of unusual rally with this Nino, with the peak month occurring later than normal?

Posted about it earlier, but this September’s 500mb pattern is exactly matching the strong El Niño September patterns of 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015. Carbon copy: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=20

@Gawx The new POAMA is actually initializing September too cool, it still gets the event to trimonthly super, although cooled slightly, no more +3.0C projection for January. Has NDJ at +2.4C, +2.7C, +2.8C: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

Similarities between this September and the Septembers of other previous strong El Niños since 1980 (1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015): https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The current +IOD is gaining strength rapidly and is well coupled. It seems the models are underestimating its ultimate strength too: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1703380021354606982?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

We just had over 3 years of non stop La Niña conditions/forcing. The atmosphere just doesn’t completely flip on a dime, unlike the ocean. There is a lag, as there always is

@Gawx Think the weekly update tomorrow has ENSO 3.4 up to +1.7C….Your thoughts?

100% believable that we see big strengthening of this El Niño in October and November for the reasons (STJ, IOD, SOI, OLR) I stated above. The “La Niña lag” from the last 3 years appears to be over and the atmospheric coupling with the already impressive oceanic event can feedback and begin. The seasonal changes are only going to serve to accelerate the coupling, as is climo for this time of the year. I agree with @Brooklynwx99 about this