snowman19

Paul Roundy thinks this event easily goes trimonthly super, as per his tweets yesterday. I have no reason to doubt a seasoned expert like Paul, he has no bias or dog in this fight. I absolutely still believe the OHC comes up substantially by the end of November. Also, the models have done well to this point, keeping regions 1+2 and 3 the warmest out of all the ENSO regions, with region 1+2 staying in the high 2’s, under +3.0C. I think a possible record strengthening period is about to be upon us. So very clearly still an east-based event as we go into October “09/28/23 #Región1 +2 #ElNiño Very Strong (coastal) (Daily average +3.11°C Biweekly average +2.79°C) - #TSM #ATSM progressive increase (since mid-September), It reached its "peak" in mid-August. #Calentamiento higher (+3.5°C) continues in north-central area.” https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1707466428943663341?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw The temporary cooling in region 3.4 has ceased BTW and it’s coming back up

I linked the tweet for all to read. Anyway, the fact that we are seeing the weak Pacific MJO waves is evidence that we are in a strong El Niño/strong +IOD. They work in tandem to weaken and suppress the MJO signal over the IO and Maritime Continent through major subsidence. That’s why the coming MJO pulse next month in phases 8/1 is projecting weak….evidence of the strong Nino at work (along with the constructive interference from the +IOD). The strengthening period (possibly record) is coming. “Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies show a clear+IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean & #ElNino across the equatorial Pacific. Latest weekly IOD index was +1.45C. +IOD should hold into boreal winter. Both +IOD & El Nino tends to result in weak & fast moving MJO pulses.” Link: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1707805294825247072?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Plenty of time for this event to strengthen, up into December really. We have seen events peak in December in the past. The signs are growing for a major strengthening next month

It’s there and it’s more than enough of a signal to constructively interfere with and kick start El Niño. That’s actually a sign of a strong El Niño. The stronger Ninos suppress the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent which makes it weaker and doesn’t allow for very strong MJO events. The +IOD is causing even stronger subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent as it continues to couple with the El Niño

Here it comes!! “Interesting to see the MJO finally gaining some oomph for the first half of October, we'll have to see if this comes to pass.” See: https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1707331586897715477?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw And the +IOD gaining even more strength…

He’s even going higher for a trimonthly ONI than me. “2.1-2.4 likely.” https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1707386456979677333?s=20

We don’t need strong WWBs anymore at this point in the season. This event goes super. All you need now is a Pacific MJO wave to propagate by, which is very likely next month. I’m extremely confident we see a major coupling event and subsequent big strengthening next month. My guess stands, a trimonthly ONI peak between +2.1C - +2.3C for NDJ. This is going to take off for the races with an MJO event next month, the day to day variability is just noise that this point

IMO if this Nino goes super, it behaves as the ONI suggests. An ONI of over +2C is going to alter the global heat budget and the forcing and we see typical super Nino behavior this winter should that happen. I can be wrong but that would be my best guess

Everyone concerned about the El Niño should take solace in this….”The EPS forecast for October *finally* shows the atmosphere beginning to act more like an El Niño as anomalous westerlies surge east of the dateline. These westerlies are additionally accompanied by strong trades in the Indian Ocean, consistent with +ENSO and a weak Walker Cell”. I have no doubt we see a major uptick in strength, very soon and I am very confident we are into a super event (at least in the ONI sense) by November https://x.com/WxTca/status/1707056618394005622?s=20

I’ve been waiting for region 1+2 to cool into a La Niña too

I would not discount the +IOD either. It’s a huge elephant in the room. It isn’t just very strong, it’s record strong and that is going to dramatically alter the forcing and the global heat budget as we go into winter

I am not concerned at all about the El Niño strengthening and continuing to couple, we have until December for that and I absolutely still think the ONI goes super. It’s still very much “East-lean” with regions 1+2 just under 3.0C and 3 almost +2.2C. We have a very favorable period for growth with the intraseasonal forcing about to come up as we see huge subsidence over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean (from the ++IOD), and a healthy MJO wave develops and constructively interferes with El Niño in the Pacific. I don’t think an El Niño pattern will be any question going into late fall and winter. The wildcards as I see them now are 1) The very strong -PDO and 2) The stratosphere - how it reacts to the Hunga Tonga effect/QBO/solar with all that record water vapor, won’t have a clear answer with that until late November. 3) The record strong ++IOD. Here’s a good look at the MJO/El Nino: https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1706854410260042161?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/metryan96/status/1707022444580536753?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx More on the major +IOD taking shape. This one is big….very well may be the strongest on record surpassing 1997, 1994 and 2019 and it is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and have a huge effect on global weather patterns this winter. The graphic in the 2nd tweet shows how it causes massive subsidence over the IO and maritime continent https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725901415874652?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725991538999802?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw Wow @40/70 Benchmark is absolutely TRIGGERED by Eric Webb’s tweet

I think it peaks solidly over +2 by the end of October/beginning of November. Very possible it surpasses 2019

Been saying this for months and the fact that clowns on twitter are calling this event a modoki is laughable. Wishcasting and denying reality at its best. Here we are at the end of September and region 1+2 is almost +3.0C again and region 3 is pushing +2.2C

The BOM just updated, still looking to be a super El Niño event for NDJ. Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#overview-section=Summary

Yes, mistakes. This +IOD event is looking like it it’s going to be stronger than ‘94, ‘97 and ‘19. Here: https://x.com/climatenerilie/status/1706207793450258791?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yesterday you linked Amy Butler’s research showing that -QBO/El Nino is very unlikely to produce SSW’s during the winter. Years ago, Joe D’Aleo did a study on Nino’s and Nina’s and the QBO state. He found that -QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to -PNA/RNA patterns and that +QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to +PNA patterns. Here is some of that research, his book on El Niños and La Nina’s also showed this study. Link: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf @brooklynwx99 @40/70 Benchmark

This well coupled (per OLR) +IOD event is very impressive, in the top 3 +IOD’s in strength (actually number 2 now) since 1980 and it’s very quickly catching up to 2019 and has already passed the 1994 event. It will constructively interfere with the El Niño as we go forward. In addition, Nino 3.4 just hit +1.7C on the weeklies, making it a top 3 event since 1980 to this point, only surpassed by 1997 and 2015. Nino 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the weeklies, making it in the top 2 since 1980, surpassed only by 1997 and Nino 3 is at the top right now at almost +2.2C, followed by 1997. It’s honestly mystifying given these facts that this El Niño and +IOD are getting completely dismissed and minimized by some people who are continuing to suggest that the El Niño is never going to couple and we are going full fledged La Niña this winter

Why are you are only showing this month and comparing it to all 3 months (Sep-Nov) in a row of 2019. It just officially got started the end of August. The OLR is very clearly showing a well coupled +IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed up to +1.7C on the weekly update, regions 1+2 and 3 are warming back up again. 1+2 is up to +2.9C on yesterday’s OISST and region 3 is up to almost +2.2C https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706315453017043211?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706329495186129101?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is huge, the IOD has strengthened all the way up to +1.45C, this is already ahead of where it was in 2019, which was the strongest +IOD on record. It’s late September and we are only 0.7C away from the 2019 event’s peak and it’s still projected to keep warming until November. This event is not only way overperforming but it’s very well coupled and is going to have a huge effect on the global heat budget/longwave pattern: https://x.com/ben_domensino/status/1706195455531720746?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yes, it does, 100%. So does the solar cycle to a certain extent. However, we don’t know what exactly those record amounts of water vapor in the arctic stratosphere are going to do this winter. That could be a huge monkey wrench. We should have some idea by late November. As Griteater said, if it’s ice cold at that point, we have big problems

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Thought you guys might find this interesting: "Water vapour from Hunga Tonga has been transported into the northern hemisphere, but reached the arctic vortex edge after it was well-developed (autumn 2022) & was only dispersed through the northern hemisphere after a strong SSW in mid-february 2023. Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season.” Source: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705919910755315821?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw