snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It’s getting more impressive by the hour. Sulfate aerosol measurements are continuing to rise and it appears to be reaching the stratosphere
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@Volcanic Winter @bluewave Just to add, there is some speculation that this eruption may reach a VEI 6. Wouldn’t that be unprecedented to have 2 VEI 6 eruptions this close together? I know Hunga Tonga was a 6….
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This *could* potentially have big stratospheric implications….major tropical volcanic eruption ongoing. If this thing pumps enough sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, it could conceivably have effects on next winter’s SPV and NAM (AO) state. This needs to be followed closely @Volcanic Winter…
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If the models are overdoing this +IOD event, which is possible and we go into a -IOD, I think this La Niña explosively develops this summer and fall, should that happen, there’s a chance it becomes a record event (i.e. 73-74, 88-89). The ingredients, both atmospheric and oceanic are definitely there
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@bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like we hit the peak of this overperforming solar maximum cycle around October, sunspots maxing out. Looks to be a high solar/high geomag winter coming up, effects TBD….
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It feels like the middle of May this morning. And yea a taste of things to come. All the soil moisture evaporating out and doing its dirty work. We are in for a very humid and very hot summer IMO
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@Bluewave Growing support for east-west tracks and not recurving hurricanes/tropical storms. Haven’t seen that in awhile
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The peepers have been out at night since mid-March. This was the earliest I can ever remember that
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Nice! 1-2 more inches of rain between now and Sunday. Just what we need….
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The models are also predicting a flip to a +PMM, which when combined with a +AMO/Nina/+IOD is HIGHLY supportive of a hyper active Atlantic hurricane season
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Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no
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Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall
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I suspect areas of metro see 80’s next week. Very likely more than once too
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Yea and I suspect the developing Nina only serves to reinforce the -PDO
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Do you think we keep the very unusual +IOD/La Niña through the fall or do you think it goes at least neutral? Although it’s possible, my guess is that we go at least neutral IOD by fall and possibly -IOD during the fall
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Not hard to do now, we have a late August sun overhead
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Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month
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When you look at the synoptic picture (rapidly developing La Niña, -PDO, ++AMO) that actually points to anything but a cool summer, actually points to a SE ridge on roids summer. The high soil moisture does point to wet/humid
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Hot is an understatement. Yes it was dry but boy was 2010 a torch summer
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Thursday night into Friday morning looks nasty, very heavy rain, high winds. What else is new? The beat goes on
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The high school teams here always play their first game the last week of March and without fail it’s always chilly and miserable. My cousin’s little league season started today and it sucked, way too cool but that’s baseball in the northeast I guess
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There’s no high latitude blocking to slow it down. Hard sell on 3 days of rain
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This wet pattern we’ve been in since the end of the last drought in 2002 can’t continue forever. Law of averages, eventually this cycle has to end, it’s astonishing that its even lasted 22 years
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At least back in 2011 we knew we were f***ed once that huge Bering Sea vortex showed up a few days after Thanksgiving. It became a semi-permanent feature that winter and the +EPO floodgates were wide open from the end of November right through the beginning of April
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It’s hard to believe that the last true drought emergency we had in the metro area was over 22 years ago (2002). The drought/wet cycles don’t normally run this long
