snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Yes, it absolutely does and I fully expect the models to adjust as such again, the CMC/GEPS is closest to reality right now IMO. You are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment again. If I’m wrong then torch me, but I don’t think I will be
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10:1 ratio maps are junk, agreed. Nothing has changed IMO. This is still an I84 north event
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Mon-Tues is going to move north again
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Yes I do. Just like I think Mon-Tues is an awful snow pattern still for here
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I dunno just a guy with a Bachelor’s and Master’s in meteorology, who’s currently going for a Ph.D. in meteorology. You know…someone who really knows his stuff. Someone you might want to listen to. Just saying….
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Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern
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No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March
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There are individuals with northern stream interaction
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Yep. Barely gets precip into SE Virginia. Streams stay completely separate
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I think it’s probably suppressive until the last week of the month like Tomer Burg said. He gave very solid reasoning. It most likely happens as the -NAO block erodes and fizzles out
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I agree. If anything happens it’s going to be after 2/15. The setup for 2/13-2/14 sucks. Our risk after 2/15 will be suppression, not lakes cutter or inland runner anymore IMO. Just hope the -NAO block isn’t too strong
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This only further supports Tomer Burg’s suppression argument. It’s a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Overpowering -NAO block in combo with a very strong El Niño, which already strongly favors the Mid-Atlantic and SE with a roided up, raging southern stream/STJ @MJO812 You won’t need shorts and a tank top, you’re going to get half of what you want….it’s going to get cold. Snow? Not so sure. Might be too much of a good thing in this case (suppression). I would not be praying for a massive, overpowering -NAO block right now given the strong El Niño
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Funny. Earthlight praised his analysis
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That tweet chain I just posted went into depth about the suppression risk through late February. He doesn’t think the pattern gets favorable for snow here until the tail end of the month into the start of March either
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Great disco:
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Sorry that I don’t wishcast cold and snow because that has worked out so well the last 3 winters .
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That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath
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I have and the stratosphere is still extremely difficult to predict. What are the actual effects on the SPV? Which side of the pole does it favor? What is the state of the PAC?
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2/1-2/15 is certain to average way above normal for the NYC metro area. It all depends on the 13 day period from 2/16-2/29 now….does it actually live up to all the snow and cold hype?
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Let’s call it a wash. The rounded trimonthly ONI is +2.0C for NDJ, unrounded is +1.97C (difference of 0.3). While the CPC is still going to list it as an official super El Niño, we’ll call it basically a wash in the contest
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
snowman19 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward @Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip -
@bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C
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My point is that no one will give a s*** if all this pattern does is get it cold. Like Tomer Burg showed, this pattern carries a high risk of suppression. If this does turn out to be a suppressed pattern, you and everyone else will call it a HUGE fail
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Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility
