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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Correct.
  2. EastonSN+
    Snowing at a decent clip. Amazing snow and ice retention this year.
  3. EastonSN+
    Thanks. If the EPS is correct, I wonder if it's a short 2 week RNA or something more static.
  4. EastonSN+
    Solid coating with much larger flakes now.
  5. EastonSN+
    Flakes much larger in size now.
  6. EastonSN+
    WRT the GEFS, when looping the 850 temp anomaly you can see the next Arctic shot coming SE at day 15. If anything seems more volatile than a static pattern.
  7. EastonSN+
    Pretty big difference between the EPS and GEFS overnight in the 15 day period. Both advertise a different pattern than we currently have BUT GEFS has the boundary south of us (muted SE ridge) while EPS is Feb 2018. Wonder which suite has been more accurate this winter to date.
  8. EastonSN+
    It feels like a month that we have been watching/discussing for the return of the RNA. Watch it end up being a short 2 week ridge.
  9. EastonSN+
    Hmmm. What does this look like (special thanks and regards to the MA thread).
  10. EastonSN+
    I love the snowman posts. Its like a movie where he's the villain and your the snow hero.
  11. EastonSN+
    Coating of snow this morning. Nice.
  12. EastonSN+
    Coating of snow this morning. Nice.
  13. EastonSN+
    I look at it differently. The NAO in December caused compression and sheered all the storms. This is definitely a much warmer look BUT with the cold on our side of the globe a strong cutter will allow for weak trailing waves to make use of the cooler air and snow. Basically, warmer than December with better chance of snow.
  14. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this Don, a break from the cold with energy savings will be welcome! I am rooting for an earlier flip to warm to allow for a better chance for a possible late winter return.
  15. EastonSN+
    Even if we had a raging SE ridge with 70 degree weather it can snow like Feb 2017. Would be surprised if we do not see another flake this season.
  16. EastonSN+
    Not sure either. Maybe the MAM is for mid March on.
  17. EastonSN+
    Looks like phase 4 is actually cold in the east in March.
  18. EastonSN+
    Found this interesting. Looks like MJO phase 4 is cold in the east in March. Unless March April May is the wrong period to pull rather than Feb March April.
  19. EastonSN+
    Yeah I gave it a mid season grade of C. Still almost half of winter left can go either way BUT it may come down to getting that SSWE or not.
  20. EastonSN+
    Completely amazing Ocean City MD winter if this is true
  21. EastonSN+
    Yeah that works late Feb, and most importantly we do not have a deep negative NAO like December to cause compression with the SE ridge. Perfect trailing wave pattern. Amped cuts weak snow.
  22. EastonSN+
    11 before the changeover. Nice.
  23. EastonSN+
    I feel like 2000 through 2010 was heavily skewed west (more blocking). Could be wrong though.
  24. EastonSN+
    Yeah I get that chances would go down, but it can snow in almost any pattern. It's just impossible to declare winter over no matter what the environment looks like. Sustained winter pattern over, yeah I get that, just not it's over with no chance of more snow.
  25. EastonSN+
    I never really understood what "winter is over" really means. We've had snow in a sea of warmth like March 2016, Feb 2018, January 2012. Heck the book about the 1888 blizzard talked about an early spring and early flower growth before the storm (probably late season severe blocking occured). Even if we go ++++AO NAO EPO mega RNA it doesn't mean there is NO SHOT of winter weather or a late return.
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