EastonSN+

C

Thanks! I find it interesting that Jan and Feb the MJO we're in warm phases before March.

Is there a way to harvest the MJO plots from 2013 through 2015? Want to see what happened in the MJO space to not change or affect the pattern.

I wonder how 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 were able to keep the same general pattern throughout 80% of the winter. Was the MJO in the COD the entire time? I don't think it could have been completely static. Seems that some METS believe we warm up big time after mid month. Is this completely based on the MJO progression? Trying to decipher the reason why this year cannot parallel those years and stay with the current pattern.

Let's see if we can all at least reach average annual snowfall this year.

Northwest SNE comeback.

I was happy Eastern New England finally got one after last year (proud of them). Win some lose some.

I know it's only op runs, but they were kind of ugly WRT snowfall chances.

I think the PNA was actually neutral.

Meh I get less than half inch.

U may think I'm nuts but I want some SE riding to bring the moisture. Jan had a long stretch between snow events.

No that winter was an extreme and perfectly place neg EPO.

Did not but will.

I'm actually sad about it.

Speaking of the LR, I love this look for February Neg EPO supplying the cold. Just enough SE ridge to avoid suppression. To me I see a warmer 1994 here. Also, I truly believe the Negative NAO hurt us in December as it created compression between the SE Ridge and the -NAO. This look of course would induce cutter risk, however with cutters you get bootleg blocking AND introduce weak trailing wave opportunities. I believe we would have had more snow with a positive NAO in December. Finally, and I will admit I do not fully understand this, but we will have shorter wavelengths in second half of February. I am thinking this would mute the effects of a deep RNA.

Here another thing to ponder. The one constant this year has been a Neg EPO. 2018 was warmer leading in if I am not mistaken. If it happens this year we would not have to wait as long for the air mass to cool.

March/April 2018 was the snowiest March onward year of my life. Storm totals 10 (medium sized tree fell on my house) 2.5 9.5 6 (April). Absolutely insane. If the exact same scenario played out the last 2 would be in scope tim wise.

This is exactly what I was pondering. Is it a hard rule approx. 3 weeks or can it vary. When did last year's SSWE occur, as we started realizing success Feb 1.

Hey the EPS look good. Maybe with the SSWE we have non stop winter through mid April :()

I will be proud of NNE if they score a good one, even if it eats my pack. Go NNE!

Yikes so this would be a disaster and take effect late March and potential ruin spring.

Thanks! I think 2018 had the SSWE occur the last week of Feb too if I am not mistaken.

Is that 2nd panel a warm look cutting puff the cold source?

Nice Towely.