EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Except for 2015 and 2018 I can be wrong, but I feel like gradient patterns tend to set up through long island sound, Central Park into 78. I can remember countless snowstorms growing up where long island was rain/ice and coastal CT and Westchester County snow. I would love to see LGA vs. Bronx snow totals in la Nina gradient patterns, but doubt the data for the Bronx exist.
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I only trust long range ensembles when they show a good pattern.
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I like it - get the bad look out of the way early!
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February is gonna rock!!
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Ha yeah. Charts in bad times, snow maps in good.
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I think we wil have a good period in mid late December then we will see what happens. May be hostile PAC vs. persistent blocking which can work especially in Jan Feb and March.
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The chart shows it's in 6 now so that seems correct then. The wave will go through 7 then low 8 same as last one. Will not stop in 6.
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Yea here is the EC. Seems to be doing exactly what it did last wave. At least the MJO has been predictable. Keeps looping 5678 with 67 being the focus. Problem is I believe 7 becomes unfavorable in January if I am not mistaken.
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Looks to be moving into phase 7 pretty quick. The upcoming unfavorable PAC may be due to the current unfavorable phases. I know more to weather than just MJO and there is a lag.
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Got a dusting in Easton CT.
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It's following the MJO progression. We will get another colder period once it gets back into 7 and 8 The loop seems to be 5678 repeat. So the bad pac is on target timing wise. Mid December looks to be the next window.
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MJO seems to be heading into phase 7 then perhaps 8 in a lower amplitude very similar to the last wave. Seems to be the early season loop. If the above does transpire another window should open up mid December especially if blocking remains.
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Yup. 2 years ago was a la Nina and we all had above average snow. 17/18 before that.
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Thanks for this. 14/15, 13/14 (not sure about 78/79) turned out to be great winters. I am guessing it depends on what far east the EPO blocking sets up.
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Yeah the La Nina background state has not been ideal since 2016. Kind of amazing we had 3 above normal snowfall winters in this timeframe (17/18 almost 200% of average IMBY).
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Haven't the IO temps been slowly dropping since the peak a few years ago (forgot the year where Australia had a lot of fires).
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Ah sorry I went whole winter missed that this was just December.
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Thanks for this. Both decades (2000 onwards) were amazing for snowfall which is incredible given the vast difference in the water temps in that region. Obviously 2000 to 2010 was more blocking and 2010 to 2021 was more EPO occasional SSWE driven.
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Edit - forgot we actually had 2 good March events in 18/19 as well.
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Yup, started the winter of 18/19 till now (after the historic March of 2018, one of my favorite overall winters). Seems that it may be caused by the triple dip la Nina? We will see if it breaks with the potential El Nino next year.
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We had a moderate overrunning event everyone forgot too. Think it was early March. Had 4.5 when I was in Norwalk.
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Down here in SW CT would do cartwheels for a similar 2000/2001 outcome given the potential this year. Received 42 that year. 15 for the December event and 5.5 for the March Event. Was living in Norwalk at the time.
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Surprising storm here in SW CT. Was expecting 1 to 3 of slop but received 9.5 of fluff. That western band over performed for sure. Feel bad for CT valley though.
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Plus 0.5 20.5 for the season.
