Blizzard of 93

3k NAM agrees with CTP for the LSV

CTP has weighed in… Up to 2 inches of snow seems reasonable at this point.

Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>052-056-057-059-063>066-111615- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1113 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Rain will change to wet snow tonight with a coating to 1 inch of accumulation possible into the Monday morning commute. The snow could result in locally hazardous travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses. The ridge tops could see up to 2 inches by late Monday morning.

Plenty of guidance has consistently showed at least 1 to 3 inches of snow-both snow depth & Kuchera maps- for the LSV over the last couple of days. The small differences in amounts are just noise at this point.

Kuchera 6z NAMs

6z NAMs are still looking good for the rain changing to snow overnight. LSV is in a great spot.

997 off of NJ Kuchera ratio I think the LSV is in a good spot for this event. Guidance is converging on a consensus.

0z GFS is on board

3k is an LSV crush job. 988 off of NJ Kuchera ratio

I would sign up for the 0z HRRR

I will also add that even @canderson in the heat island of downtown Harrisburg recorded a few tenths of snow this week!

Nothing surprises me anymore with MDT measurements. It is an absolute joke that they did not record .2 or .3 of snow the other day. Heck, even the heat desert known as MU recorded .8 of snow for the event. Somehow, I would bet that if CTP would have had some type of Advisory out for the event with any accumulation mentioned, they would have cared enough to “update” the recorded measurement to cover themselves.

That’s fine after a nice front ender!

12z NAMs Kuchera

Yes indeed!

Lol, “you can’t spell MDT without a T” is my new favorite line! And it’s sad, but true!

The 6z GFS says Merry Christmas! Long way to go, but as the old song says….” I’m Dreaming of a …..

Can we …maybe …. Possibly … move heaven & earth to get MDT on the board with a few tenths of snow? Or….I know this is asking a lot…but maybe there is a chance of the first inch of snow measured at MDT?

Good morning! This is a great signal. I would be happy with half of this in my yard.

Here are the 0z NAMs Kuchera

Yes, but at least it’s something to track & maybe we can luck into a sloppy couple of inches of snow.

Good rates can accumulate just fine overnight at 33 or 34.

Great, thanks, lol! We will let you know what happens when you are in London or Texas or wherever you are this weekend! Forget about your trash cans!

Come on, you know the old rule… Hug the model with the most snow!

But then the 6z GFS also shows a storm missing to the south a few days before Christmas…. Right where we want it at this range for now according to my handbook….