It’s going to be a long week for me with the Eagles in the Super Bowl and all of the storm tracking…
I will need to try to sleep sometime…but it might be really tough!
In my observations, we typically only ever see those types of ensemble totals when there is a moderate event or two in the short term.
This is a major signal.
The signal is getting louder on the 0z ensembles for snow chances in the upcoming 2 weeks.
Most of this snow falls in week 2, but seeing ensembles showing 8 and 10 inches at this range is VERY RARE.
@mitchnick have you EVER seen the EPS show a 8 to 10 inch mean for the LSV on the 15 day map unless we were staring down a major event in the short term?
Me personally, I’ve never seen the EPS show 10 inches for MDT at this range for the 15 day period.
No guarantees & we can’t shovel potential…. but my goodness this has the chance to be a memorable upcoming period.
I like seeing the signal for snow over the next 2 weeks on the GEFS & EPS.
From my observations over the years, it’s usually a good indicator for snow potential when the 6 inch snow line reaches at least part of the LSV for the 15 or 16 day ensemble period.
The vast majority of the snow is in week 2 on both ensembles.
12z GFS & Canadian continue the theme of multiple chances along the boundary over the next 2 weeks.
Hopefully we are on the Wintry side for a few of them.
The 6z GFS has 5 different Winter Storm chances over the next 16 days.
Most are snow to mix scenarios, but we would build a little glacier if this run were to verify.
Too many maps (lol, yes I said it) to post each individual threat.
Here is the 16 day snow map just to give a general idea of the potential this run.
@mitchnick and others that love snow chances…
The 0z EPS snow map might have had the best run of the season without a specific threat on our doorstep.
Talk about potential…this is the 10 day EPS snow map from the 5th through the 15th.
The 0z GFS & Euro both have several Winter weather opportunities as we ride the boundary during the next 2 weeks.
Some snow, some mix, some rain, it should be an interesting period upcoming to say the least.