Blizzard of 93

The 18z GEFS really took a positive step with the look for late December.

The 12z EPS & Canadian ensemble today are heading in the right direction for late December.

The end of the 0z EPS looks encouraging with the ridge moving back into central Canada. The trough is beginning to undercut from the southwest to the south central states. The trough in the Atlantic is reaching back towards the southeast coast & appears to be getting ready to link up with the trough extending to the south central states if the run went out a couple of more days.

The end of the 0z EPS looks encouraging with the ridge moving back into central Canada. The trough is beginning to undercut from the southwest to the south central states. The trough in the Atlantic is reaching back towards the southeast coast & appears to be getting ready to link up with the trough extending to the south central states if the run went out a couple of more days.

Like a few on here mentioned earlier, many of us have seen a little snow 3 times in the last week or so. It hasn’t added up to much, but it has felt like Winter. Better days are ahead this season.

I don’t care if there are some sunny days with highs near 40 in January as long as we have a workable pattern. With the right storm track, high temps in the low 30s with lows in the 20s would work just fine on the day of the storm. I merely mentioned the effect of snow pack & what it can do to low temperatures with the right conditions. But please, keep on twisting my words..

Yes, better days should be ahead later this month. An improved sustainable pattern in prime climo in January & February would be lots of fun on here to track.

Snow on snow on snow with seasonably cold weather also helps with snow pack retention in January. Also, overnight lows with snow pack can really tank on calm & clear nights.

How does a well reasoned quoted post from a red tagger get manipulated & trashed? I guess clowns need to clown…

Lol… how about Pittsburgh? Please be real just for 1 freaking second…seasonably cold would be just fine to produce Winter storms.

The 18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27.

18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27.

Lol, Hey guess what…. MDT recorded another “T” today. You can’t spell MDT without a T

Fantastic post by @FXWX in the New England thread…. Great perspective on the Winter… “Folks forget or choose not to remember the El Nino discussions during the early fall that strongly suggested December would likely run the risk of a being an above normal month with thread the needle events for any shot at meaningful snow threats. In a lot of ways this December is playing out pretty much according to classic past El Nino years... The same long-range outlooks the pointed out the risk of a warmer than normal December, also pointed toward the pattern improving once into or just beyond the Xmas holiday week. I am in that camp even if the shift to a more favorable setup waits until early January. This December pattern is nothing like last December and the global pattern is very different. I do not expect the pattern to flip into an unusually cold regime once into early January and I don't think one is needed to see significant Northeast snows. As we all know, pattern transitions are commonly a bit later the originally thought so no one should be surprised if the more favorable pattern waits a week or more later than originally projected. I don't think anyone is talking about a Jan 2015 type of flip, but I expect the large-scale NA pattern will grow more favorable for significant storm action moving into January, even if the regional temperature pattern is close to normal or a bit above normal. The pattern laid out by 40/70 is a very realistic path forward and one that fits where I think the long-range modeling seems likely to go: In short, more western ridging, an active Pacific jet under-cutting Western ridging and enough high latitude blocking to allow seasonably cold air masses to visit on a regular basis...”

Congrats to those that got snow! 0.0 snow in Marysville, but I can see some snow on the ridges in the distance a few hundred feet up. We must not have got good enough rates overnight to produce the goods in my yard.

38 with rain still in Marysville at midnight

A little late for globals, but the 0z GFS gets 2 to 3 Kuchera inches of snow for many of us overnight.

I like still seeing precip emerging from the Gulf near the FL panhandle. Good precip is moving north out of Georgia & the western Carolinas.

Come on, you know the old line…. ”It’s nowcasting time”!

@psuhoffman Just post this in the Mid Atlantic thread…. “Just to clarify 1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great. 2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. “

Lol, if that’s what it takes to get some snow around here… I was thinking that we ship @canderson to the Europe or Texas forums.

The transaction is for a “poster to be named later”.

The latest Euro Weeklies for December 27th looks to be Highly serviceable as well.

Sometimes, it helps to look for yourself…

How about Early January-the fourth…. This would work too…