Blizzard of 93

35 was my Marysville low.

6z GFS gets the cold in place this weekend & then it gets very active with multiple Winter storm chances from around 5th through the end of the run. The run starts of with a healthy looking Clipper on the 5th. Then the stream gets involved & has a more impressive looking storm chance on the 9th. Let’s get the cold air in place & then hopefully we are tracking multiple chances.

Exactly… Maybe east coast to him means Richmond & DC ?

MDT got down to 36

The 0z GFS shows a crushing snowstorm chance this run for us on 12/7 into 12/8. The cold air is getting entrenched this weekend, so hopefully Winter storm chances like this aren’t too far away.

.25 rain overnight in Marysville.

NAM still has snow for most north of the turnpike for Thanksgiving am.

32 in Marysville currently

The 0z NAM gets front end snow from the turnpike area & to the north early on Turkey Day.

If the waves track under us, the right timing & precip intensity would help the winter weather cause.

Hopefully a Clipper or 2 get us a heavy coating while we wait for something more to develop with the cold pattern in place.

Here are CTP’s thoughts for Thanksgiving. All medium range model guidance tracks an area of low pressure northeast from the Lower Miss Valley late next week, likely spreading precipitation across PA for Thanksgiving Day. There remains plenty of uncertainty inherent in a day 5 forecast regarding the exact surface low track and resulting ptypes. However, a large majority of ensemble members support a moderate precipitation event late Wed night through Thursday with mean qpf around a half inch. Lack of a blocking high suggests any snow may be confined to a relatively narrow corridor on the northern edge of the precip shield. Early thermal profiles indicate the best chance for a few inches of snow will be over the N Mtns, with all rain likely near the Mason Dixon Line.

Here is the 6z GFS at the same time stamp.

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

The 0z Euro was much different. It showed a 994 low tracking to Pittsburgh.

The Thanksgiving & Friday forecast is far from resolved… The 6z GFS shows All precip missing to the south as colder air presses is this run.

I’m just saying it’s too early to be towel throwing for those of us near I-81 & to the north & west. This won’t be resolved until Monday night or Tuesday.

It’s too close to throw in the towel yet for many places in CTP, especially back near the I -81 corridor to the northwest.

I still think at least the I-81 corridor is still in the game.

Since 6z today….? Plenty of time for adjustments.

Still lots of time for the small adjustment needed for the PA line on north.

It’s very close, we will likely be riding the line.

12z ICON tracks the late week low under us & has a good stripe of precip in southern PA.

There is likely going to be a solid stripe of snow in our region. As always, who wins is still to be determined. On to 12z we go…

6z GFS