Blizzard of 93

I love my family, but I’ll take snow whenever I can get it, Lol!

First few days of December still looks promising on various Op & ensemble runs.

CTP getting more confident for my area. Thursday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10am. High near 41. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

The 0z NAM & ICON are very interesting for the late week system. I will be thrilled if there are just flakes in the air or maybe a coating.

18z Euro & 18z EPS for the later this week event.

12z Euro had a beautiful coastal low for December 3rd. This time period keeps on showing up on either the GFS or Euro.

6z Euro says many of us see at least first flakes by Friday.

I was just looking at CTP as well. Here is the Marysville forecast… Thursday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Lol, I deleted my old “yearly surplus” attachments back when that applied before I joined “Team Drought”.

The run was a very nice Monday happy hour.

Here are the the ensemble images. I had to go in & delete a bunch of old attachments to make room for the upcoming season…

18z GFS Op delivered a couple of chances in the 10 to 15 day period.

The 12z ensembles today continued to advertise a potentially workable look in the day 10 to 15 period, just after Thanksgiving.

Exactly… 5 day mean for day 11-16 looks potentially workable.

MDT high was 54 today. Normal high is 53. It was a very normal November weekend Weather wise.

The early December time frame has ensemble pattern support from the GEFS & EPS.

Lol, I keep forgetting that the Euro comes out a little earlier & goes out 15 days now. I know it’s way out in time, but it’s nice to see the GFS & Euro have the same general idea at this long range.

18z GFS shows a snow chance on the 30th & then the run ends cold with a low passing to our south.

55 in Marysville. Very average mid November day. MDT average high is 54 today.

They are digging a massive hole early this season that will be tough to overcome. McCain has been fun to watch & is putting up impressive numbers. They need to figure it out soon, or this will be a lost season.

30 was my Marysville low.

Lol, sure, as long as our Santa in here agrees.

Thanksgiving day looks cold in the GFS as well this run.

The 6z GFS agrees with DT. This run shows a snow chance a few days before Thanksgiving.