Blizzard of 93

12z GFS has a long duration Winter storm next Tuesday into early Wednesday. Snow to an icy mix this run. Warning snow from Harrisburg on north & Advisory amounts in the southern tier. Long way to go & lots of options on the table.

There were a few light flurries in Marysville this hour.

Met Winter arrived right on time with my low of 16 this morning in Marysville.

Yes!!! Let’s gooooooo !!! Maybe you will bring the luck!

In what way?

Lol, it’s too early for that! Also, one of those GFS runs yesterday gave CTP a moderate hit. The Canadian yesterday (not last night) also had a decent hit for southern PA.

I understand your concern with the next weekend storm chance, but we are currently not in a Nina yet. We are in a “nada” at this time, though a weak Nina may eventually develop soon. Also, looking back on the model trends from 5 to 10 days before the Thanksgiving storm, the models were all over the place (as usual). Some runs even 5 to 7 days out showed us snowing with a perfect track, while others were weak with barely a storm signal. The Euro when it came on board had the amped more west solution that the models caved to eventually. My point is that there is lots of time to go to determine the timing or if there will even be a storm chance.

Low of 24 in Marysville. Currently 28

6z GFS has the storm chance next weekend right where we want it next weekend… Plenty of time for a few ticks north.

December 8th is looking rather interesting on the 0z Canadian & GFS. The Canadian slides off to our south, but the GFS is a moderate hit this run.

Here are CTP’s comments on the midweek Clipper potential. By the middle of the week, flow once again becomes more southwesterly ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Ensembles seem to be coming into agreement that this low will track over the Great Lakes and will bring light snowfall to most of Central PA Wednesday into Thursday. Cyclonic flow remains overhead through the end of the week and will support continued upslope snow showers over the western mountains and lake effect snow over the northwest. Temperatures will remain well below normal through the extended period with highs generally in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

I also like still seeing a juiced up system on 18z GFS on the 11th & 12th, even though it didn’t work out for us this run. With the advertised pattern that should be in place, I like our chances of the surface working out in our favor.

I don’t mind seeing the wave on the night of the 7th getting juiced up, but sliding just under us at this range.

Plenty of cold available in week 2 as well on all 3 ensembles.

12z ensembles continue to have a workable look for week 2.

Clippers next week while we watch to see if something more significant develops around the 10th or so.

They should be able to make plenty of snow this week if they want it.

Some light flurries in Marysville recently.

6z GEFS gets the 2” snow line all the way down to Fredericksburg by day 16. The trend is our friend.

The 6z GFS then has a larger storm chance on the 11th the gets the southern stream involved. It looks like a Miller B set up with a low then developing on the North Carolina coast. It’s a snow to mix event for many of us this run. Lots of tracking in our near future.

The 6z GFS serves up Clippers on the night of 4th & 7th.

I’m enjoying the Turkey Day activities, but I’m loving these model run comments!

Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east.

Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east.