Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern. ”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday. A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol!
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@canderson CTP seems confident with 4 days to go. This is for Harrisburg
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Thanks, lol, Im sure it’s canceled & it will be a rain storm now! Get a grip!
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CTP posted this earlier today.
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We have a long way to go to pin down the details with timing, amounts & final track. Just wait until we can add in the NAM, RGEM & HRRR to all of this…!
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The Canadian actually keeps the foot in play for many. Maybe it will be right for a change?
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We are in a great spot for this event. With the low tracking off of the DelMarVa, we should be able to score a Warning level event.
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Today, the Ops & ensembles still show Warning level snow for most of CTP. The high end foot plus amounts have now been reduced, but are still showing a Warning level event for most. This is mainly due to the speed of the Storm & reduced precipitation amounts. Most of the Op runs have still have Harrisburg near 8 inches of snow, which would be a fantastic way to get our Winter going! Here is a recap of the 12z & 18z Global Ops today.
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You rang? Lol…
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Low is in a great spot, just need to slow it down a bit & ramp the precip back up. 4 days to go, but I would be good with a region wide 5 to 10 of snow.
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Checking in over lunch, the Weatherbell maps look much different for the LSV in a good way on the GFS & Canadian.
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If you want to treat yourself, go take a look at the 6z GFS total snow map through day 16….
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Out in fantasy land, the 6z GFS has another Winter storm chance on the 15th. Storms & rumors of storms..buckle up!
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Looking ahead to the Tuesday the 9th storm, the chance of front end snow is back on the 6z GFS even into the LSV before the change to rain. Heavy front end snow this run for western & northern CTP with the 9th event on the GFS. The snow map is just for the 24 hrs on the 9th into 10th.
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6z GEFS continues to ramp up.
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6z ICON bumped north to put us in the sweet spot. Still a little more snow to go at the end of the run which ends at 120 hours.
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6z GFS is still on board with good track but less precip this run compared to 0z.
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What a run!
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Wow!!! Crushed!
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Not bad, lots of room to survive the ticks to the north during the 3 days leading in.
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While we wait for 0z runs, I found this CPC map to be quite interesting for the Next storm chance for the 9th/10th. They must have some confidence in the possibility of front end snow for most of CTP, especially north & west sections of our region.
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I just looked at the snow for week 2 on the ensembles for the period AFTER this weekend’s event. A couple of weeks ago @mitchnick & I were trying to will the “blue” into the LSV, but it was not budging. So, while we may suffer a cutter, there is still good potential after this weekend. Again, these are just snow maps for week 2, for the 9th to the 16th on the 12z GEFS & EPS. Not bad for this range…
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Great to see with still 5 days to go!
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I still think we have the chance for a front end couple of inches of snow with the mid week cutter next week before the switch to rain. I’m not sold that the storm after the cutter will also cut. Yesterday the GFS had that as a snowstorm. Long way to go, but this pattern is certainly loaded with potential. We won’t win them all, but this will certainly be an interesting period to track.
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18z GFS is a crushing indeed
