Blizzard of 93

The 0z RGEM is steady as she goes for tomorrow’s event.

18z RGEM still is looking good for the Harrisburg area on to the north & west.

18z ICON improved as well for your area.

Yes indeed, from one Advised poster to another, Lol!

The GFS improved slightly over its earlier runs today.

We really need a sarcasm font on this website. I have no idea how anyone would get worked up over a passing remark in jest.

I am also just messing around with everyone. We have a trackable short term minor event. Let’s go!

CTP mentioned the possibility of expanding the Advisory slightly further south in later shifts if necessary.

If it doesn’t happen in Lancaster… Geographically speaking, this is a widespread CTP event. We have many posters across CTP.

It looks like MDT barely made it above freezing today. It felt like mid Winter out there today running in & out of stores.

I go Christmas shopping for the afternoon & no one bothers to post a WWA for most of CTP…

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 234 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 .A winter storm will bring a mix of snow and freezing rain to Central PA Sunday into Monday morning. Many locations will have snow at the start, but turn to freezing rain before finally changing to rain. PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-056-150900- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0019.241215T1500Z-241216T1200Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry- Including the cities of Huntingdon, Mount Union, McConnellsburg, Lock Haven, Altoona, State College, Newport, Bedford, Chambersburg, Lewistown, and Mifflintown 234 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to 3 inches and a light glaze of ice, mainly on the higher elevations. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The precipitation will turn to plain rain as the temperatures rise above freezing Monday

CTP for now for the Harrisburg area is saying mainly after 4 pm.

12z RGEM still looks good for around I-81 back to the north & west.

Here is the 6z Euro ensemble

Arctic air is tough to dislodge… CTP said it in their discussion. If the precip comes in as a solid “wall”, this should produce from around I -81 on to the north & west.

Here is CTP’s take on tomorrow night. Looks like our first widespread Advisory event for many of us is on the way tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus tonight into Sunday morning is on approaching 5h trough swinging into the high plains Saturday and middle to upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and to the lower central GLAKS on Sunday. Strong easterly ageostrophic flow around anomalous arctic high pressure over the Gulf of Maine and and weak sfc trough with approaching system on Sunday means that cold air from the retreating arctic high will be very difficult to dislodge. CAD entrenched along and to the east of the Allegheny Mtns will set the stage for overrunning mixed precip Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends indicate S/IP as most likely Ptype well east of the Alleghenies with a good signal for fzra/icing closer to the Alleghenies. Confidence was sufficient for near warning criteria fzra over the Laurel Highlands to hoist a Winter Storm Watch for .25"+ potential ice amounts, with Advisories stretching northward through Clearfield, Elk and Cameron Counties (coordinated with PBZ). The depth of the cold air will be a major factor in determining the amount of frozen (snow and sleet) versus liquid (freezing rain and rain) precipitation. The bulk of the wintry mix and snow/ice accumulation should stay along and to the northwest of I81. As far as snow accumulations go, Advisory criteria snow/sleet is looking increasingly likely over parts of the Central Mountains, Ridge and Valley Region, and up towards the Endless Mountains region of northeast PA. It appears that hourly snowfall rates of .25" to .5" at times Sunday afternoon and evening bring the best chances for 2-4 inches of snow to an area stretching from State College to Lewisburg, Bloomsburg to Lock Haven and back to Philipsburg, with 1 to 2.5" amounts common across the remainder of central and north central PA (south of Rt 6). Amounts drop off south of I-81, and along the Alleghenies where ptypes are more likely to be freezing rain and sleet.

Also, precip coming mostly at night, so the dreaded mid December sun angle won’t impact much.

We have an Arctic air mass in place with cold ground temps.

6z Canadian short range herpaderp is on board as well, with more to go when it’s run ends at hour 48

Gotta love his style. He is one of a kind.

My focus is on what’s right in front of many of us tomorrow night. The 6z RGEM remains consistent & gives good Advisory snow to everyone outside of southern York & Lanco.

There is still a lot to resolve for next weekend. Everything from whiff to cutter to decent snow hit is still on the table.

6z Euro is on board for the I-81 on to the north & west snow train for tomorrow evening.