Happy Thanksgiving everyone l
I am thankful for this weather community that I have now been a part of for 10 years!
I hope that you all enjoy the day with family & friends while feasting!
The 18z GEFS has brief transient ridging in the east on day 12/13, but then quickly evolves back into a more favorable look by day 15. Temperatures at day 15 are below normal as well.
Patience…maybe we enjoy a dusting to an inch or 2 with a couple of Clippers while we track storms with more upside the following week.
Step 1 is getting the cold entrenched this weekend.
Lol, but it’s not too far away.
The northern half of PA should see snow tomorrow.
Also, this is the beginning of the pattern change.
Our window opens next week.
There is good agreement among the 3 global ensembles that the favorable pattern holds at least through the second week of December.
Ridging out west & the Aleutian low should continue to deliver cold air into the east. It should then just be a matter of time until we have opportunities for Winter weather.
6z GFS gets the cold in place this weekend & then it gets very active with multiple Winter storm chances from around 5th through the end of the run.
The run starts of with a healthy looking Clipper on the 5th.
Then the stream gets involved & has a more impressive looking storm chance on the 9th.
Let’s get the cold air in place & then hopefully we are tracking multiple chances.
The 0z GFS shows a crushing snowstorm chance this run for us on 12/7 into 12/8.
The cold air is getting entrenched this weekend, so hopefully Winter storm chances like this aren’t too far away.