Blizzard of 93

NAM still has snow for most north of the turnpike for Thanksgiving am.

32 in Marysville currently

The 0z NAM gets front end snow from the turnpike area & to the north early on Turkey Day.

If the waves track under us, the right timing & precip intensity would help the winter weather cause.

Hopefully a Clipper or 2 get us a heavy coating while we wait for something more to develop with the cold pattern in place.

Here are CTP’s thoughts for Thanksgiving. All medium range model guidance tracks an area of low pressure northeast from the Lower Miss Valley late next week, likely spreading precipitation across PA for Thanksgiving Day. There remains plenty of uncertainty inherent in a day 5 forecast regarding the exact surface low track and resulting ptypes. However, a large majority of ensemble members support a moderate precipitation event late Wed night through Thursday with mean qpf around a half inch. Lack of a blocking high suggests any snow may be confined to a relatively narrow corridor on the northern edge of the precip shield. Early thermal profiles indicate the best chance for a few inches of snow will be over the N Mtns, with all rain likely near the Mason Dixon Line.

Here is the 6z GFS at the same time stamp.

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

The 0z Euro was much different. It showed a 994 low tracking to Pittsburgh.

The Thanksgiving & Friday forecast is far from resolved… The 6z GFS shows All precip missing to the south as colder air presses is this run.

I’m just saying it’s too early to be towel throwing for those of us near I-81 & to the north & west. This won’t be resolved until Monday night or Tuesday.

It’s too close to throw in the towel yet for many places in CTP, especially back near the I -81 corridor to the northwest.

I still think at least the I-81 corridor is still in the game.

Since 6z today….? Plenty of time for adjustments.

Still lots of time for the small adjustment needed for the PA line on north.

It’s very close, we will likely be riding the line.

12z ICON tracks the late week low under us & has a good stripe of precip in southern PA.

There is likely going to be a solid stripe of snow in our region. As always, who wins is still to be determined. On to 12z we go…

6z GFS

0z Euro

The 6z GFS & 0z Euro are starting to agree on the general idea for late this week. Both have a weak lead wave that brings some rain & snow on Thanksgiving. Then a stronger wave right behind it brings heavier precip mostly in the form of snow. The low then jumps to the coast Friday am as it heads northeast. The GFS overall has a more minor system that brings a stripe of Advisory snow to mainly southeast PA. The Euro brings Warning level snow to most of CTP, with Advisory amounts in the LSV. Either way at this point, it appears that a system is likely over the Thanksgiving period, but impacts still need resolved.

0z GFS has a moderate wave bringing snow Thanksgiving night to eastern PA.

McCain looked really good again tonight. This guy can play & should only get better.

It will be interesting to see how this resolves itself over the next few days.

Event still ongoing as the low looks to be getting ready to jump to the coast.