Blizzard of 93

It’s funny yet interesting that the ICON continues to show a decent middle ground that would make most happy.

Here is a sampling of the 12z runs that are good for snow for many of us…

Speaking of Good For Snow…most of the 12z models are good for snow for most of CTP. I almost choked on my lunch while reading all of the Deb posts on here… We all don’t live in Lancaster or York county, and even they should at least get a solid Advisory event out of this…. Outside of the NAMs, the rest of 12z says all systems go for Warning level event for the rest of us near I-81 and areas West & North.

CTP actually raised the snow amounts in the Watch area by an inch overnight…. Now 5 to 8 of snow… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 302 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063-064-052015- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T1500Z/ Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 302 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...The worst travel conditions are expected Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night, especially along Interstates 80 and 81, with snowfall rates in excess of one inch per hour at times creating snow covered roads and poor visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mixed precipitation will cut down on accumulations southeast of Harrisburg and York.

Remember when the storm for tomorrow was consistently not happening on the long range & medium OP runs. It wasn’t until last Friday when they started to really show the potential for this weekend. Then when it showed, they were mostly suppressed well to the southeast. Some were saying no chance until late January… Point is, lots can change on Op looks once you get to the seven day range.

Lol, I’m surprised no one posted the 6z Herp a Derp 6z High Res Canadian .

Look at the 0z GFS Op… it shows potential in week 2.

In summary…. Let’s do this!!! We have our first nearly region wide Winter storm Watch in 2 or 3 years… I’m stoked!

This needs bumped too..CTP confident.

Bumping this 6z RGEM too.

Bumping this because some might have missed the 6z GFS earlier.

The EPS & GEPS look absolutely amazing & loaded with potential. This is their advertised pattern in the day 8 to 15. Look at those blocks with a coast to coast trough underneath.

Several rodeos to go this Winter.

See my post above…. Precip amount issue to me… it cut back this run.

Likely a NAM hiccup

6z Euro main issue to me is precip cut way back for a lot of CTP. Best precip in Lehigh Valley to New England this run, so they get best snow this run. If we get near 1 inch of precip to us, we will be fine.

6z RGEM actually improved over 0z

This is the full GFS storm through Sunday for Eastern areas.

6z GFS is all systems go for CTP Warning level snow.

This is their best map yet. The yellow really expanded nicely to include Harrisburg in the 6 to 8 zone.

Wow! What a great 0z so far! Hopefully this locks in on tomorrow’s runs, but great trends with about 36 hours until game time.

Great GFS run with Warning snow for 99% of Susquehanna Valley. Around 9 inches at Harrisburg.

Indeed, it is ramping up in Harrisburg, York, Palmyra & Rouzerville, and is holding steady around Lancaster.

Good RGEM run again…Similar to 18z 10-1 & Kuchera

NAMs now look like the RGEM solutions earlier today & yesterday.