Blizzard of 93

Here is the 6z Euro ensemble

Arctic air is tough to dislodge… CTP said it in their discussion. If the precip comes in as a solid “wall”, this should produce from around I -81 on to the north & west.

Here is CTP’s take on tomorrow night. Looks like our first widespread Advisory event for many of us is on the way tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus tonight into Sunday morning is on approaching 5h trough swinging into the high plains Saturday and middle to upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and to the lower central GLAKS on Sunday. Strong easterly ageostrophic flow around anomalous arctic high pressure over the Gulf of Maine and and weak sfc trough with approaching system on Sunday means that cold air from the retreating arctic high will be very difficult to dislodge. CAD entrenched along and to the east of the Allegheny Mtns will set the stage for overrunning mixed precip Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends indicate S/IP as most likely Ptype well east of the Alleghenies with a good signal for fzra/icing closer to the Alleghenies. Confidence was sufficient for near warning criteria fzra over the Laurel Highlands to hoist a Winter Storm Watch for .25"+ potential ice amounts, with Advisories stretching northward through Clearfield, Elk and Cameron Counties (coordinated with PBZ). The depth of the cold air will be a major factor in determining the amount of frozen (snow and sleet) versus liquid (freezing rain and rain) precipitation. The bulk of the wintry mix and snow/ice accumulation should stay along and to the northwest of I81. As far as snow accumulations go, Advisory criteria snow/sleet is looking increasingly likely over parts of the Central Mountains, Ridge and Valley Region, and up towards the Endless Mountains region of northeast PA. It appears that hourly snowfall rates of .25" to .5" at times Sunday afternoon and evening bring the best chances for 2-4 inches of snow to an area stretching from State College to Lewisburg, Bloomsburg to Lock Haven and back to Philipsburg, with 1 to 2.5" amounts common across the remainder of central and north central PA (south of Rt 6). Amounts drop off south of I-81, and along the Alleghenies where ptypes are more likely to be freezing rain and sleet.

Also, precip coming mostly at night, so the dreaded mid December sun angle won’t impact much.

We have an Arctic air mass in place with cold ground temps.

6z Canadian short range herpaderp is on board as well, with more to go when it’s run ends at hour 48

Gotta love his style. He is one of a kind.

My focus is on what’s right in front of many of us tomorrow night. The 6z RGEM remains consistent & gives good Advisory snow to everyone outside of southern York & Lanco.

There is still a lot to resolve for next weekend. Everything from whiff to cutter to decent snow hit is still on the table.

6z Euro is on board for the I-81 on to the north & west snow train for tomorrow evening.

Low of 15 in Marysville. Currently 18

It looks like MDT got down to 18 a little earlier this morning.

0z GFS ticked colder in the right direction for this Sunday night.

0z RGEm remains consistent for this Sunday night.

3k NAM is starting to pick up the Winter weather idea Sunday evening in the 81 corridor.

Already down to 20 in Marysville

First up is this Sunday with the chance of a minor Advisory type event for the I-81 corridor on to the north & west. I’m rooting on the RGEM, which has remained consistent now for several runs.

@paweather might just pass out when he sees this eye candy!

Great run for the rest of us!

Lol, sorry about your luck that run. Apologies to Franklin county!

It’s great for 99% of us next weekend. What run are you looking at?

18z GFS is a Happy Hour special for next weekend… Maps coming up soon…