Blizzard of 93

The EPS at 12z today was a massive step in the right direction for a better pattern beginning in about 10 days. By day 10 on the EPS, the trough is pushing towards the east & the southeast ridge has finally decreased just to our south. This could be the beginning of a workable pattern for winter weather. A storm could ride the boundary & we could be just on the good side to produce winter weather in PA. By day 15 on the EPS, the mean trough has advanced to the center of the country. The PNA is rising & the southeast ridge has been buried to the Carolinas. Also, all caveats aside about snow maps at long range, the EPS snow map showed a nice increase between day 10 & 15. I am posting it just to show the winter storm potential if the EPS is on the right track.

The 18z Euro agreed with the rest of the other 18z models for the LSV.

Here you go sir ! There is good agreement between the 18z GFS,3k NAM, & high res Canadian. The LSV from around the turnpike & south looks good for 1 to 2 inches of snow by tomorrow evening.

The 6z Euro keeps us in the game for a little PA Farm Show snow tomorrow.

Unfortunately the 12z Euro looks more like the GFS. Lots of time considering that the storm doesn’t even begin to develop until early Tuesday.

The 12z Canadian held steady & looks good for CTP.

Yes, one run we are in the bullseye & the next we are not. The storm doesn’t even form until tomorrow, so there is lots of time to resolve. The Euro & Canadian have been fairly consistent with putting CTP in a good spot for this event over the last few days. I’m anxious to see what they have to say at 12z today.

The 0z Euro & 6z NAM saved the day & brought CTP back to the good snow on Tuesday !

We only might need to wait until Tuesday to get some white gold ! I’m going to try to ignore the long range until after Tuesday’s event... The 12z Euro & especially the 12z Canadian put all of CTP in a good spot for a light to moderate snow event on Tuesday afternoon & evening.

Here is the 6z Euro Control which goes out longer in time than the 6z Op Euro run. This shows the entire event for all of CTP & gets @pasnownut & @Bubbler86 into the decent snow...

The 6z Euro had the best run yet for the Tuesday snow chance. The 6z Euro runs only go out to 90 hours, so I can extrapolate a few more hours of snow for the Susquehanna Valley if it the run went out a little longer. I don’t know why these images are showing up on here out of order...

CTP is on board with our Tuesday snow chance. This is from their discussion today: Into the mid and long range period, there remains plenty of model spread and forecast uncertainty. However, a very busy pattern looks in store, with broad consensus that some phasing of northern and southern stream energy over the state late Tuesday or early Wednesday will support a gradually strengthening area of low pressure with the potential for a light to moderate snowfall/mixed precip event.

The 0z & 6z model runs continued the positive trend for some CTP snow on Tuesday. The LSV, especially those areas near I-81, now look to be in play for the chance at a couple of inches of snow by late Tuesday. Here is the 6z GFS.

@pasnownut & @MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential?

The 18z EPS looks good for the overnight Sunday potential.

The 18z Euro improved the chance of some snow for us overnight Saturday into Sunday am.

Happy New Year everyone! We have the chance at a couple of winter weather events this week. The first chance is Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will depend on if a secondary low develops, & if so, the location will determine if we can get a little snow out of it. Here is the 12z Canadian & Euro.

I thought that with the year ending, today would be a good time to post this chart that CTP has on their website that shows the Harrisburg snow totals since 1980. Looking back on the last 40 years is a good reminder that some of our memorable snow years were surrounded by bad snow seasons. The best example of that is the epic seasons of 93-94 & 95-96 had the terrible winter of 94-95 sandwiched in the middle. I can’t imagine the sad state of this place During the run of bad winters of 05-06 to 08-09 or the pitiful period snow between 96-97 to 01-02. This chart is a good reminder that for many years, snow lovers suffer while waiting for a good or great or even average winter season in our area. Harrisburg has been on a very good run recently, with 5 out of the last 6 years exceeding the 30.9 inch average seasonal snow total.

The middle of next week still has potential to provide us with a snow storm. The 0z models had the Euro showing a cutter, the Canadian was close with an inland runner, & the GFS said “what storm?”. There is still lots of time to determine our chances for PA Farm Show week.

I can’t wait until it snows next week so we have something to discuss other than weeds.

Yes, the 0z Euro, 0z Canadian & 6z GFS all like the idea of a winter storm around the 7th of January.

The old PA Farm Show snow rule could be in effect this year. This is the best looking GEFS run that I have seen in some time. Of course, take snow maps at long range with a grain of salt, but for the purpose of spotting trends, they help to tell the possible story. Most of the snow on this 6z GEFS map falls during the Farm Show week! It looks like the possibility of a few events. There are some nice hits among the individual ensemble members.

Yes, that was a nice track on the Euro. It looks like the period just after this storm that you mentioned will turn favorable for winter storm chances. The GEFS is quite cold & active with chances beginning just after next weekend through the following week. When is the PA farm show this year ? Maybe for once that will help to bring us some snow ?!

There should be a colder period developing next weekend. The question will then be if it will lock in or move out after the following week. The MJO & EPO will have a lot to say about how the pattern will evolve. If the MJO can take a longer loop through phase 7 & 8 as some models indicated yesterday, then that could help the pattern turn more favorable for winter weather in the east. The EPS yesterday showed the EPO heading toward & staying near neutral territory over the next couple of weeks. The SOI also has been very negative against it’s base state for the last 4 days with values near -20. Hopefully we will be back to Winter storm tracking as we head into the the New Year.

Merry Christmas everyone ! The 0z GFS had a gift for us which would get delivered on January 5th in the form of a coastal storm.